Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market in recent years has been influenced by factors such as upstream device production, device maintenance and restart, MTO profit - driven device operations, overseas device status affecting imports, and coal price trends. Currently, as China's methanol production nears the end of the investment cycle, supply - demand mismatches from the phased start - stop of existing devices are more prominent. In the past three years, MTO profit, coal price trends, and import expectations have dominated the domestic methanol market, with import impacts being particularly significant this year [1]. - The PP - 3MA spread is negatively correlated with methanol prices and has upper and lower boundaries. It can be used to judge the relative level of methanol prices and guide short - to - medium - term market judgments. Currently, due to the Iran device shutdown from the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the 09 contract is unlikely to see significant inventory accumulation before, resulting in a strong basis and high monthly spreads. The PP - 3MA spread is at a year - on - year low, indicating limited upward space for methanol, but the short - term probability of a sharp decline is also low, and the market is likely to enter an interval adjustment [2]. - In 2024, imports and upstream - downstream device start - stop dominated the market. From January to May, low overseas device operation and import levels, along with stable downstream demand, led to rising prices. From May to September, MTO losses and device shutdowns caused prices to fall. In the fourth quarter, improved downstream profits, increased olefin operation, and macro - policy expectations drove price fluctuations, and prices were more likely to rise in the traditional peak season [6]. - In 2023, the market was mainly influenced by coal prices and upstream - downstream device operations. Before the Spring Festival, low inventory and improved macro - sentiment pushed prices up, and then falling coal prices led to a decline in methanol prices. After June, coal prices stabilized, and downstream demand improvement and device restarts drove price increases [26]. - In 2025, the contradictions are concentrated in overseas factors and domestic upstream - downstream industrial chain profit distribution. Falling coal prices have led to a decline in methanol costs, and the supply is adjusted through device start - stop. In the first half of the year, import levels affected the market, and port MTO device start - stop influenced the price trend. Traditional demand has weakened due to the real - estate downturn [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 2024 Market Review - **January - May**: Low overseas device operation, import negotiation stalemate with Iran, low import levels, stable downstream demand, low port inventory, and rising methanol prices [6]. - **May - September**: High methanol prices led to MTO losses, port device shutdowns, and falling methanol prices [6]. - **Fourth Quarter**: Improved downstream profits, increased olefin operation, macro - policy expectations, and price fluctuations. Prices were more likely to rise in the traditional peak season [6]. - **Inventory and Spread**: In the first half of the year, imports were lower than expected, port inventory was low, and the basis and 5 - 9 spread were strong. In the second half of the year, high domestic supply and port olefin device shutdowns led to high inventory, and the 1 - 5 spread turned negative [9]. PP - 3MA Spread Analysis - The PP - 3MA spread is negatively correlated with methanol prices and can be used to judge the relative level of methanol prices. Currently, it is at a year - on - year low, indicating limited upward space for methanol, but the short - term probability of a sharp decline is also low [2]. 2023 Market Review - Before the Spring Festival: Low inventory and improved macro - sentiment led to rising methanol prices. After the festival, falling coal prices caused a decline in methanol prices [26]. - January - May: Coal price decline was the main factor for the methanol price drop, with short - term rebounds and speed variations related to upstream - downstream device operations and overseas devices [26]. - After June: Coal prices stabilized. In late June, the Iran natural gas price increase drove a short - term price increase. In August, MTO device restarts and new device investment expectations led to rising prices [26]. 2025 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Falling coal prices have led to a decline in methanol costs. Domestic supply is adjusted through device start - stop, and in the first half of the year, imports are a major supply - side variable [30]. - **Demand**: Port MTO device start - stop affects the market rhythm. Initially, reduced imports drove price increases, but then MTO losses and device shutdowns led to price drops. Traditional demand has weakened due to the real - estate downturn [30][32].