甲醇日报 | 2026-02-27 港口仍等待去库周期开启 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤515元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润325元/吨（-38）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1830元/吨（-38），内蒙北线基差220元/吨（+2），内蒙南线1850元/吨（-10）；山东临沂2175元/吨（-18），鲁 南基差165元/吨（+22）；河南2030元/吨（-20），河南基差20元/吨（+19）；河北2075元/吨（+20），河北基差125元/ 吨（+59）。隆众内地工厂库存535410吨（+195030），西北工厂库存346600吨（+177500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 206751吨（-108280），西北工厂待发订单82500吨（-77500）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2197元/吨（-35），太仓基差-13元/吨（+4），CFR中国267美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-24元/ 吨（+13），常州甲醇2255元/吨；广东甲醇2202元/吨（-33），广东基差-8元/吨（+6）。隆众港口总库存1446697吨 （+14514），江苏港口库 ...

甲醇日报 | 2026-02-26 港口库存节后微幅累积 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤515元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润363元/吨（+0）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线1868元/吨（+0），内蒙北线基差219元/吨（+36），内蒙南线1860元/吨（-20）；山东临沂2193元/吨（-18）， 鲁南基差144元/吨（+19）；河南2050元/吨（+20），河南基差1元/吨（+56）；河北2055元/吨（+0），河北基差66元/ 吨（+36）。隆众内地工厂库存535410吨（+195030），西北工厂库存346600吨（+177500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 206751吨（-108280），西北工厂待发订单82500吨（-77500）。 单边：谨慎逢低做多套保 跨期：无 跨品种：无 风险 港口方面：太仓甲醇2232元/吨（-11），太仓基差-17元/吨（+25），CFR中国269美元/吨（+5），华东进口价差-38元/ 吨（-3），常州甲醇2275元/吨；广东甲醇2235元/吨（-15），广东基差-14元/吨（+21）。隆众港口总库存1446697吨 （+145 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory of methanol has risen again, and the decline cycle has not been realized. The import volume in February has dropped to a seasonal low, but the downstream is also in the off - season, and the MTO maintenance of some enterprises has dragged down the demand [2] - In the inland area, the coal - based methanol plants maintain high operation rates. The downstream pending orders are in good condition, and the inland factory inventory has declined again, failing to achieve the pre - holiday seasonal inventory build - up. The traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, and the basis of methanol in different regions compared with the main futures contract. It also shows the price differences between different methanol futures contracts, such as the 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 contracts [6][12][19] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report includes charts on the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and the import price differences, such as the price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [23][24][29] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Charts show the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated enterprises), the inland factory sample inventory, and the overall methanol operation rate in China [31][38] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [35][43][45] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [47][51]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slowdown in Chinese arrivals has materialized, leading to a decline in port inventories this week. However, the winter maintenance units in Iran have started to resume production, and ZPC has restarted one production line. Attention should be paid to the subsequent resumption progress, as the resumption of Iranian units may suppress the market, while also keeping an eye on the development of the geopolitical situation in Iran. [2] - The coal - based methanol plants maintain high - level operation. The downstream pending orders are performing well, and the inventory of inland factories has further decreased, without realizing the seasonal inventory build - up before the Spring Festival. [3] - In the traditional downstream sector, acetic acid remains in a loss - making and low - load operation state, formaldehyde continues to reduce its load seasonally, and the MTBE production rate shows a good performance. [3] - The MTO units are in the maintenance period, and Xingxing and Shenghong are still under maintenance. [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis and Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, and the basis between spot methanol in different regions and the main futures contract, such as in Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong. It also shows the inter - period spreads between different futures contracts like methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [6][7][13] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China. [6][26][27] 3.3 Methanol Production Rate and Inventory - The report shows data on the total methanol port inventory, MTO/P production rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol production rate (including integrated units). [6][34][41] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - It includes price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200. [6][38][46] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report presents the production profits of traditional downstream products, such as the production profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. [6][50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given text Core Viewpoints - Chinese methanol port inventory begins to show a lagging de - stocking, with a significant decline in port inventory this week and a slowdown in arrivals being gradually realized [2] - The MTO in the downstream is in the maintenance period, causing the de - stocking of the port not to be fully realized, and some downstream MTO devices are still under maintenance [2] - Coal - based methanol in the inland maintains high - level operation, downstream pending orders perform well, and inland factory inventory further decreases, without realizing the seasonal inventory build - up before the Spring Festival [3] - Traditional downstream industries: acetic acid maintains a loss - making and low - load state, formaldehyde continues to reduce its load seasonally, and MTBE operation shows good performance [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][24][25] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated ones) [6][31][38] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures show the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between North Shandong - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][35][42] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report presents the production gross profits of traditional downstream products, including the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][48][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Downstream MTO maintenance continues to increase, with Tianjin Bohua MTO advancing its maintenance to January 23, Xingxing shutting down for maintenance on January 12, and Ningbo Fude under maintenance from early December to late January. Port MTO maintenance drags down port demand. Supply disturbances depend on the Iranian situation, which has slowed down for now. Methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week, with Jiangsu de - stocking and Zhejiang stocking. Coal - based production maintains high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based production is gradually restarting. Inland factories are in an inventory recovery cycle, and traditional downstream industries are in a seasonal off - season [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol spot - main futures basis in different regions, and the basis between methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong and the main futures, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][13] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference (excluding surcharges), and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][30] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [32][39] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [36][43][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [47][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No rating for inter - period and cross - variety [4] Core Viewpoints - After the situation in Iran eased, the methanol futures price on the port has continuously corrected. The port inventory has started to decline, and the port basis has rebounded. However, attention should be paid to the downstream MTO maintenance situation. Overseas, Iranian methanol plants are still undergoing winter maintenance [3]. - In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants maintain high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based plants are gradually restarting. Inland factories are in a period of continuous inventory increase, and the traditional downstream is in the seasonal off - season [3]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - This section includes multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures in this part display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import price differences between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][27] III. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It shows the total port inventory of methanol, the start - up rate of MTO/P (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of methanol in China [6][33][39] IV. Regional Price Differences - The section presents the price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the price differences between other regions [2][6][36] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][49][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is affected by multiple factors. In the port area, the geopolitical situation in Iran is an important variable for the methanol market. Currently, the total inventory pressure at Chinese methanol ports is high, dragging down the port basis, and there are maintenance expectations for MTO units, which may weaken the future de - stocking expectations. In the inland area, coal - based methanol maintains high - level operations, and the inventory of inland factories is in a continuous recovery cycle, while the traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - season [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents various charts related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][21] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Charts show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as spreads between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [6][25][26] 3. Methanol开工, Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P开工 rate (including integrated units), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol开工 rate (including integrated units) is presented through charts [6][32][41] 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides charts on regional price differences, such as the difference between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [6][38][46] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is neutral for both unilateral and inter - period strategies, and there is no recommendation for cross - variety strategies [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total port inventory of methanol remains high, with a divergence where inventory in Zhejiang accumulates further and that in Jiangsu starts to decline. The inventory pressure is still significant, and the market is waiting for the expected peak and decline of the arrival volume. Attention should also be paid to the duration of the winter shutdown in Iran. There are concerns about the subsequent centralized maintenance of MTO due to low MTO profits. The expected maintenance of Xingxing in mid - January means large inventory pressure in January, and the possible maintenance of Shenghong and Bohua MTO in February - March and the first half of the year may weaken the de - stocking expectation from February to April [3] - The supply pressure on the mainland persists. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of Southwest gas - based production in the second half of the month. The traditional downstream is in a seasonal off - season with general performance, and the mainland factories are in a cycle of continuous inventory increase [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - There are multiple figures showing the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) and the main futures contract, as well as the spread between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][13][20] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the coal - based methanol production profit in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and the import spread (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [24][25][29] 3.3 Methanol Start - up Rate and Inventory - The figures cover the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), the mainland factory sample inventory, and the overall methanol start - up rate in China [31][38] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report presents regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [35][43][47] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The production gross profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether are shown [45][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The real inventory pressure in the port area remains high, and the window for the port to flow back to the mainland is closed, dragging down port pick - up. Although the Iranian methanol plant is operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance needs further confirmation, and the decline rate of shipping volume in December is still slow. There are concerns about the possible maintenance of Xingxing's MTO plant [2]. - Downstream demand in the mainland is in the seasonal off - season, and factory inventories are gradually rebuilding. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of southwest gas - based plants in the middle and late ten - days. The seasonal low of pending orders in the northwest drags down the pick - up demand for port - to - mainland back - flow. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operation rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operation rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operation rate has declined slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - The report presents charts of methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][9][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows charts of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][26][33] 3.3 Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - The report provides charts of methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [34][43] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences in different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][48][52] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][58] 3.6 Strategies - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [4]