Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of PVC is limited due to the high - production and high - inventory structure that is difficult to change in the short term. The high -开工 and weak - demand pattern persists for futures contracts before the 03 contract. It is recommended to enter the market on the right side after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans on the supply side. The supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 01 contract futures price is 4532, the East China spot price is 4500, the basis is - 32, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 300. The domestic PVC spot market price is stagnant and stable, with the disk price fluctuating weakly. The weekly supply remains high, and market transactions have become sluggish. The current prices in the East China region are 4400 - 4540 yuan/ton for calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC and 4450 - 4600 yuan/ton for ethylene - based PVC [2]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - PVC is at a low valuation. Although factors such as anti - involution trading, real - estate market policies, and short - covering can drive a phased rebound, the high - production and high - inventory situation is hard to change in the short term. Before the 03 contract, futures contracts face a pattern of high -开工 and weak demand. The expectation of large - scale production cuts may occur after the 03 contract. The expected inventory build - up during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the trading space of low - valuation factors. PVC warehouse receipts are still high, increasing the pressure on long - position holders to take delivery. The comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry is at a historical low, and the supply - side reduction in the maintenance peak season next year may exceed expectations, which is conducive to profit repair, but it is advisable to wait for substantial maintenance plans [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].