Core Insights - The traditional poverty threshold, established in the 1960s, is deemed outdated, with a strategist suggesting the real poverty line for a family of four is $140,000, significantly higher than the official threshold of $32,150 [1] - Rising living costs, particularly in housing, healthcare, and childcare, have led to financial struggles for families earning six figures, indicating a disconnect between income levels and actual living expenses [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that food expenditures accounted for only 12.9% of a typical household's budget in 2023, contrasting with the original formula that allocated one-third of a budget to food [1] Economic Implications - The analysis by Michael Green highlights that a family of four's annual expenses for essentials total approximately $136,500, which includes childcare, housing, food, transportation, healthcare, and taxes [1] - The Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) for renters in 2023 is $37,482, which is significantly lower than Green's estimate, suggesting a need for updated measures of poverty [1] - The rapid cost-of-living increases since the pandemic have intensified financial pressures on families, even those with above-average incomes, contributing to widespread economic dissatisfaction [1]

Group 1 - The average US gas price has fallen to $2.79 per gallon, the lowest since March 2021, leading to an expected savings of $11 billion for American households in 2026 compared to 2025 [3] - The US stock market indices, including the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq, ended the week down about 1%, yet remain near all-time highs, indicating resilience despite uncertainties [8] - The value of US households' stock portfolios increased by $5.5 trillion in Q2 2025, while real estate holdings rose by $300 billion, contributing to a total net worth increase from $176 trillion to $182 trillion [26] Group 2 - Credit card lending has become more profitable, with JPMorgan reporting a net yield of 9.7% on over $200 billion in card loans, while a proposed 10% cap on credit card expenses is facing resistance from card issuers [12][14] - The median US home price is now $410,800, with nearly 60% of millennials planning to spend less than $400,000 on a home, and 44% willing to allocate over half their income to housing [16] - Mortgage rates have dropped below 6% for the first time in three years due to government intervention, which may artificially support the housing market rather than improve long-term affordability [20]

Core Insights - A prominent strategist argues that the real poverty line for a family of four is $140,000, significantly higher than the official federal threshold of $32,150, indicating a disconnect between traditional measures and modern economic realities [1][8]. Economic Context - The analysis highlights that families earning six figures often face financial struggles, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with the economy, even among those with above-average incomes [4]. - Rising costs in housing, health care, and child care have increasingly consumed family budgets, overshadowing food expenses, which accounted for only 12.9% of a typical household's expenditures in 2023 [4]. Methodology and Findings - The original poverty line formula, established in the 1960s, is based on food costs, but the strategist recalibrated it to reflect current living expenses, suggesting that the real poverty line is 16 times the amount needed for food, estimating it between $130,000 and $150,000 [5]. - A family of four's average annual spending on essential living expenses, including child care, housing, food, transportation, health care, and taxes, totals approximately $136,500 [5]. Alternative Measures - The Census Bureau has developed the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), which considers a broader range of necessities, with the SPM poverty line for renters in 2023 set at $37,482, which is significantly lower than the strategist's estimate [7].

Good morning. It's Sunday, December 21st. If there's one takeaway from Donald Trump's grumpy address to the nation on Wednesday, it's that his administration may finally be catching on to America's mood on the state of the economy. A string of recent surveys have shown that the public is continuing to sour on Trump's handling of the economy. According to a recent Associated Press NORC poll, Trump's approval rating on the economy has slipped to 31%.That's the lowest it's been across both of his presidencies. ...

Poverty Line Calculation - The traditional poverty line calculation, based on families spending one-third of their income on groceries, may be outdated [1] - The original formula was developed by Molly Orch, observing that families spent roughly 33% of their income on groceries [1] Shift in Household Spending - Between 1963 and 2024, household spending composition has significantly changed due to exploding housing costs, healthcare expenses, and childcare costs [2] - Food at home now accounts for only 5% to 7% of household spending for most families [3] - Housing now consumes 35% to 45% of household spending [3] - Healthcare accounts for 15% to 25% of household spending [3] - Childcare can consume 20% to 40% of household spending for families with young children [3] Revised Poverty Threshold - Applying the original logic with updated spending proportions, the multiplier should be 16 instead of 3 [4] - The income inadequacy threshold for a family of four is estimated to be between $130,000 and $150,000 per year [4]

One analysis suggests that modern budgets push the effective poverty line far above official levels, revealing why many six-figure earners still feel financially strained. https://t.co/CPEcpwbWfN ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - A crisis is underway at the Federal Reserve, with Jerome Powell facing a revolt from fellow central bankers due to disagreements on monetary policy [1][2][6] - Two Fed governors dissented at the same meeting in July, a rare occurrence not seen since 1993, signaling potential cracks in the central bank's armor [4][6] - There's nearly an even split among voting members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding a December rate cut, with approximately 63% odds assigned by the market to a rate cut and 95% odds on Poly Market for a 25 basis point cut [6][7] - The author anticipates the central bank will likely cut another 25 basis points, despite preferring a 50 basis point cut to bring interest rates below 3% [13][14] - Market chaos is expected if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates, as financial markets are anticipating cheap capital [16] Economic Data & Poverty Line - The traditional poverty line calculation, based on a 1963 formula of food costs multiplied by three, may be outdated due to significant changes in household spending patterns [17][21][22] - Applying the original poverty line logic to current spending patterns suggests a modern poverty line for a family of four could be between $130,000 and $150,000 per year [25][26] - Two-thirds of Americans may be living below this modern poverty line, indicating the economic data may be inaccurate and not reflecting people's actual financial struggles [27][28] Bitcoin & Market Volatility - Bitcoin has experienced a 35% drawdown from its all-time high, which is considered a healthy reset in the context of its historical volatility [41] - Over the last decade, Bitcoin has drawn down 30% or more 21 times, with seven of those drawdowns being 50% or more [39] - Bitcoin's volatility may be decreasing, potentially leading to smaller drawdowns (around 40% instead of 80%) [42] - Despite recent price drops, the S&P is only about 5% off all-time highs, and most markets around the world are up double digits, suggesting a broader bull trend [30][37]

From the Desk of Anthony Pompliano0:00 The Federal Reserve Is In Crisis9:09 The Poverty Line Should Be At $130,000?14:18 Will Bitcoin’s Drawdown Get Worse?Enjoy! https://t.co/bODc1RW9Ew ...

Poverty Trends - The number of Americans living under the poverty line has continued to shrink for decades [1] Data Accuracy Concerns - Questions arise regarding the accuracy of poverty data [1] - The real poverty line may be $140,000 per year [1]

WE ARE BACK ABOVE THE POVERTY LINE https://t.co/VQXrLWgPyM ...