Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Energisa, Equatorial, and Copel, while Cemig is rated as "Sell" [6][64][50]. Core Insights - The new power distribution opex methodology approved by the regulator aims to enhance efficiency sharing with consumers, impacting the fair equity values of the companies covered [7][21]. - Energisa and Equatorial are the most exposed to the new methodology, with estimated impacts of -9% and -8% on their fair equity values, respectively [2][8]. - Despite recent market rallies, the sector remains reasonably valued, with an average real spread of approximately 3.8% to Brazil's free risk bonds [3]. Summary by Sections New Opex Methodology - The new methodology includes annual updates to reference opex, a simplified benchmark model, and the application of the IPCA index for all variables [7][21]. - Cost outperformance sharing with consumers is now correlated to median sectoral efficiency, with limits set at 140%/60% for cost outperformance [21][28]. Company-Specific Adjustments - Energisa's fair equity value is adjusted down by -9% due to the new methodology and updated power demand forecasts, with a revised 2025E growth estimate of 0.5% YoY [49][50]. - Equatorial's fair equity value is adjusted down by -8%, with a similar revision in growth estimates to 0.5% YoY for 2025E [63][64]. - Copel is the least affected, with a -3% impact on fair equity value [2][8]. Market Demand and Forecasts - The report incorporates updated forecasts from Brazil's independent power system operator, indicating a decrease in power demand growth, with a -4% YoY drop noted in April and May 2025 [44][45]. - The overall demand forecast for 2025E has been revised down to -3.1% YoY from a previous estimate of +0.4% YoY [44][45].

Core Viewpoint - The growing demand for energy in the U.S. presents significant opportunities for energy companies, particularly NextEra Energy, which is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend [2][3][11] Company Overview - NextEra Energy operates the largest electric utility in the U.S., Florida Power & Light (FPL), and is a leader in clean energy through its NextEra Energy Resources segment, making it the world's largest producer of renewable energy from wind and solar [5][11] - The company has built more renewable energy-generation capacity than any other company in the past two decades, along with a significant gas-fired generation capacity [6][11] Financial Performance - NextEra Energy has achieved a 9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in adjusted earnings per share (EPS) over the past 20 years, contributing to a 10% CAGR in dividends during the same period [7] - The company's total returns have outperformed the S&P 500, with an annualized return of 15.7% compared to 10.2% for the index [7] Growth Potential - The U.S. is projected to need an additional 450 gigawatts (GW) of power generation capacity by 2030 to meet demand, with renewable energy, particularly solar, expected to play a crucial role due to its lower costs and rapid deployment capabilities [8][10] - FPL has installed over 7.9 GW of solar capacity and plans to deploy more than 17 GW of solar and over 7.6 GW of battery storage in the next decade [9] Investment Strategy - NextEra Energy plans to invest $120 billion over the next four years to maintain and expand energy infrastructure, which is expected to support adjusted EPS growth at the top end of its 6% to 8% annual target range through 2027 [10] - The company anticipates continuing to grow its dividend by around 10% annually, supported by the expected surge in power demand [10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid outlook for US power demand, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% projected for 1Q2025, compared to a historical average of 1.0% over the past two decades [5]. Core Insights - US power demand growth remains robust despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with both bottom-up and top-down analyses supporting this conclusion [5]. - The average year-over-year growth rate for power sales in the US for 1Q2025 is reported at 2.0%, with a median of 1.8%, after adjustments for weather and leap years [5]. - The top-down approach indicates a significant increase in total power demand, highlighting a divergence from the bottom-up approach due to the sample size of utilities covered [9]. Summary by Sections Bottom-Up Analysis - The bottom-up approach utilized earnings reports from various US power utilities, adjusting for weather and leap-year effects to derive a growth rate of 2.0% [5]. - Utilities such as Xcel Energy (XEL) and WEC Energy Group (WEC) reported demand growth in line with their annual expectations, with XEL maintaining a 3% growth forecast for retail sales in 2025 [9]. Top-Down Analysis - The top-down analysis, based on EIA data, shows a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% for total US power demand in 1Q2025, significantly higher than the historical average [5]. - The report notes that the differences between the two approaches may stem from the sample of utilities representing only 25-30% of overall US power sales, as well as varying weather adjustment methodologies [9]. Regional Insights - The report emphasizes that regional variations in demand can be significant, and the national weather-adjustment methodology may overestimate demand during extreme weather events [9]. - Large load customers are expected to continue driving demand, while residential demand is anticipated to grow due to customer increases and higher usage [9].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a solid outlook for US power demand, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% projected for 1Q2025, compared to a historical average of 1.0% over the past two decades [5]. Core Insights - US power demand growth remains robust despite macroeconomic uncertainties, with both bottom-up and top-down analyses supporting this conclusion [5]. - The average/median year-over-year growth rate for power sales in the US for 1Q2025 is reported at 2.0%/1.8%, adjusted for weather and leap-year effects [5]. - The report highlights that the differences between top-down and bottom-up approaches are primarily due to the sample of power suppliers covered, which represents approximately 25-30% of overall US power sales [9]. Summary by Sections - **Bottom-Up Analysis**: The bottom-up approach shows an average/median growth rate of 2.0%/1.8% for 1Q2025 power sales, adjusted for weather and leap-year effects, based on earnings reports from US power utilities [5]. - **Top-Down Analysis**: The top-down approach indicates a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9% for total US power demand in 1Q2025, significantly higher than the historical average [5]. - **Utility Performance**: Utilities under coverage reported that 1Q demand was mostly in line with their annual guidance, with specific companies like XEL and WEC expecting continued demand growth aligned with their forecasts [9].