Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE:BAM) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 04, 2026 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBruce Flatt - Chairman and CEOConor Teskey - CEOHadley Peer Marshall - CFOJason Fuchs - Head of Investor RelationsConference Call ParticipantsAlexander Blostein - AnalystBart Dziarski - AnalystCherilyn Radbourne - AnalystCraig Siegenthaler - AnalystCrispin Love - AnalystDaniel Fannon - AnalystDean Wilkinson - AnalystJaeme Gloyn - AnalystKenneth Worthington - AnalystMario Saric - AnalystMichael Brow ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, the company achieved organic revenue growth of over 10%, adjusted EBITDA growth of over 13%, and adjusted EPS growth of almost 12% for the quarter and nearly 14% for the full year [6][7] - The total run rate reached over $3.3 billion, growing 13%, with total asset-based fees (ABF) run rate of $852 million, growing 26%, and recurring subscription run rate of over $2.4 billion, growing over 9% [8][9] - The company has delivered 11 consecutive years of double-digit adjusted EPS growth [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The index business had its best quarter ever for new recurring subscription sales, with a growth rate of 18% [8] - In analytics, the company posted its second-best Q4 on record for new subscription sales, with subscription run rate growth of over 8% [19] - Private Capital Solutions saw recurring sales growth of 86%, supported by innovative new products [9][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ETF and non-ETF AUM linked to MSCI indices reached approximately $7 trillion, driven by record inflows into clients' ETF products, particularly in Europe [9] - Equity ETFs linked to MSCI indexes captured a record $67 billion of inflows during Q4, totaling $204 billion for the full year [17] - The company observed significant uptick in activity in Europe and EMEA, with subscription run rate in EMEA now higher than in the Americas [39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging AI to enhance its capabilities across various product lines, including analytics and custom index creation [10][31] - MSCI aims to have a fully integrated company where each product line benefits from and contributes to every other product line, amplifying financial growth [22] - The company will no longer maintain product line-specific long-term targets to better reflect its focus on integrated growth [23] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on favorable long-term secular trends and the resilience of its all-weather franchise [6][7] - The company is optimistic about the recovery in Europe and the potential for growth in sustainability and climate solutions, despite current challenges [66][70] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to emerging risks and opportunities beyond traditional ESG factors, including AI and supply chain disruptions [10][70] Other Important Information - The company repurchased nearly $958 million of its shares at an average price of about $560 per share in Q4 [7] - Baer Pettit, the president, announced his retirement, effective March 1, and will be succeeded by Alvise Munari and Jorge Mina [24][26] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Discussion on AI adoption and its impact on growth - Management highlighted that AI has been integrated into various operations and product lines, with significant projects aimed at enhancing analytics and custom index capabilities [30][31][34] Question: Insights on international flows and pricing opportunities - Management confirmed that there has been a significant uptick in activity in Europe and EMEA, with subscription run rates exceeding those in the Americas, indicating a positive trend in international flows [39][40] Question: Performance of private assets and future trends - Management noted strong sales in Private Capital Solutions, driven by new offerings and a positive outlook for growth in this segment [46][49] Question: Free cash flow dynamics and projections - Management discussed expected increases in cash taxes and interest expenses impacting free cash flow in 2026, but emphasized strong underlying business dynamics [51][54][56] Question: Recovery in ESG market and future expectations - Management indicated that while recovery in Europe is underway, the U.S. market remains challenging, but there is potential for growth in sustainability solutions [66][70]

Core Insights - The upcoming year may represent a significant turning point for retirement planning as the aging US population increases the demand for effective retirement solutions [1] Demographics and Market Risks - The US population aged 65 and older is expected to grow steadily, with 12,000 new retirees reaching age 65 daily, highlighting the urgency for effective retirement strategies [2][4] - Two major risks for retirees by 2026 include market concentration, where a few mega-cap technology stocks dominate the S&P 500, and inflation, which threatens purchasing power for those reliant on fixed income streams [4] Retirement Savings Landscape - There exists a $4 trillion "savings gap" between the amount Americans should have saved for retirement and what they currently possess, indicating a significant shortfall in retirement preparedness [5] - Less than 10% of Americans' overall wealth is derived from pensions, emphasizing the need for alternative retirement income sources [5] Evolving Investment Strategies - New asset classes, particularly private equity and private credit, are being integrated into retirement plans, with US pensions already allocating over 25% of their assets to private markets [4] - The gap in exposure to private assets for everyday retirement savers is narrowing as platforms evolve, suggesting a shift towards more diversified investment strategies [4]

Market Trends - Soaring valuations are fueling a rush of newcomers into private assets [1]

Core Insights - Private markets are projected to generate over half of the money-management industry's revenues by 2030, indicating a shift towards private debt, equity, and infrastructure investments [1][3] - The asset- and wealth-management industry is expected to earn approximately $432 billion in revenue from private assets by 2030, surpassing revenues from traditional actively managed and passive investments [3] - The competition in private markets is intensifying, with traditional fund houses acquiring or partnering with private-market firms to enhance their positions [4] Industry Trends - The asset management industry is experiencing significant fee pressure, with nearly 60% of institutional investors likely to change managers for cost reasons, leading to anticipated declines in fees across both active and passive strategies [5] - Traditional cost-cutting measures have had limited success, and diversifying into new asset classes is adding complexity and costs [6] - Technology, particularly AI integration and automation, is seen as crucial for driving profits and transforming business models in the asset management industry by 2030 [6]

Credit Quality Concerns - The industry believes credit quality is consistent across public and private markets [2] - Concerns exist regarding credit decisions made by smaller players lacking established standards, particularly those moving credit into mid-tier insurance companies [2] - The industry is monitoring potential bad credit decisions arising from FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) and exuberance [3] Risk Assessment - Systemic risk is not a major concern; risks are more idiosyncratic to particular counterparties [4] - The industry is primarily focused on smaller spaces with less transparency [4] Investment Exposure - For a specific city, 80% of institutional exposure is investment grade globally [3] Private Asset Space - The industry is not concerned about the capacity being built in the private asset space, anticipating it will be utilized [1]

Core Viewpoint - Asset managers targeting retail clients are emerging as a significant market for private investments, with the potential to become one of the largest groups supporting private assets alongside institutions and individuals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expansion - Apollo Global Management aims to leverage partnerships with existing asset managers to reach individual investors who seek exposure to private assets indirectly [2][3]. - The company is focusing on expanding its reach beyond traditional backers of alternative assets, such as pensions and sovereign wealth funds [3]. Group 2: New Opportunities - Defined-contribution retirement plans, like 401(k)s, represent a new market for private investments, especially following a recent executive order aimed at increasing private investment presence in these plans [4]. - Apollo has formed partnerships with traditional asset managers, including State Street Corp. and Lord Abbett, to facilitate access to private assets for individual investors [4]. Group 3: Capital Attraction - Apollo attracted approximately $5 billion from wealth channels in the third quarter, bringing its total for the year to about $14 billion, driven by demand for semi-liquid funds [6]. - Institutional clients are increasingly reallocating investments from public debt and equity into private-market assets, which is expected to grow significantly [7]. Group 4: Transparency and Liquidity - As private assets gain popularity, there is a growing need for transparency, with the ability to provide daily net-asset values becoming essential for collaboration with traditional asset managers [7]. - The company emphasizes the importance of transparency and liquidity in gaining access to traditional asset managers, despite some industry resistance [8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted net income reached $1.4 billion, or $2.17 per share, representing a 17% year-over-year increase [3] - Fee-related earnings (FRE) were $652 million, up 23% year-over-year, with management fee growth of 22% [4] - Spread-related earnings (SRE) excluding notables were $846 million, with an estimated Q4 SRE of approximately $880 million, leading to a projected full-year SRE of $3,475 million, an 8% year-over-year growth [4][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asset management generated record inflows of $82 billion, with $59 billion from asset management and $23 billion from retirement services [5] - Average origination for the quarter was $75 billion, with a stable average spread of 350 basis points over Treasuries [5][25] - The retirement services segment saw $23 billion in gross inflows, with year-to-date inflows totaling $69 billion [18][34] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Record assets under management (AUM) reached $908 billion, a 24% increase year-over-year [36] - The annuity market has significantly expanded, driven by a growing retiree population and demand for guaranteed income [18][34] - The origination volume for the last 12 months exceeded $270 billion, up more than 40% compared to the prior period [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on three strong fundamentals: financing the global industrial renaissance, addressing the retirement crisis, and providing alternatives to public markets [6][7] - The strategy includes expanding origination capabilities and enhancing product offerings across various markets, including insurance and traditional asset management [8][30] - The company anticipates a 20%+ growth in FRE for 2026, driven by existing business momentum and new initiatives [42][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing demand for private assets and the ability to navigate current market conditions [10][11] - The outlook for asset management is bright, with expectations of continued innovation and growth in various segments [16][42] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong origination pipeline to support future growth [24][41] Other Important Information - The company closed the acquisition of Bridge, which is expected to contribute approximately $300 million in annual fee-related revenues [37] - The company executed over $350 million in share repurchases during the quarter, reflecting opportunistic capital management [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion around origination targets and outlook - Management indicated that while origination activity has exceeded expectations, it would be premature to adjust the five-year origination targets at this time [48][49] Question: Wealth market trajectory and product pipeline - Management noted that the wealth market is on pace with previous targets, and the expansion of the product suite is expected to drive future growth [51][52][53] Question: Concerns regarding private letter ratings in insurance - Management refuted concerns about systemic risks related to private letter ratings, emphasizing Athene's strong credit quality and diversified ratings [58][59][63]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted net income reached $1.4 billion, or $2.17 per share, representing a 17% year-over-year increase [3] - Fee-related earnings (FRE) of $652 million, up 23% year-over-year, with management fee growth of 22% [4] - Spread-related earnings (SRE) estimated at approximately $880 million for Q4, leading to an estimated full-year SRE of $3,475 million, an 8% year-over-year growth [4][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Asset management generated record inflows of $82 billion, with $59 billion from asset management and $23 billion from retirement services [5] - Average spread on origination remained stable at 350 basis points over Treasuries, with origination volume of $75 billion for the quarter [5][25] - Capital solutions fees reached $212 million, marking the second-strongest quarter on record [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Record assets under management (AUM) of $908 billion, up 24% year-over-year [36] - Strong demand in the retirement services market, with $23 billion of gross inflows in Q3, contributing to a year-to-date total of $69 billion [17][33] - The annuity market has significantly expanded, driven by demographic trends and the retirement crisis [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on three strong fundamentals: financing the global industrial renaissance, addressing the retirement crisis, and providing alternatives to public markets [6][7] - Expansion into new markets, including insurance and traditional asset managers, is expected to drive growth [8][9] - Innovation in asset management is a key focus, with plans for new products and strategies to enhance offerings [16][43] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing demand for private assets and the company's ability to generate high-quality origination [10][23] - The outlook for 2026 includes expectations of over 20% growth in FRE and 10% growth in SRE, supported by strong organic growth and origination capabilities [43][44] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining a strong culture and being a preferred employer in the industry [10] Other Important Information - The acquisition of Bridge is expected to contribute approximately $300 million in annual fee-related revenues and enhance origination capabilities [36] - The company executed over $350 million in share repurchases during the quarter, reflecting opportunistic capital management [46] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion around origination targets and outlook - Management noted that while origination strength has exceeded expectations, it is premature to adjust long-term targets at this time [47][49] Question: Wealth market trajectory and new product pipeline - Management emphasized the importance of expanding product offerings and partnerships to capture growth in the wealth market [51][54] Question: Concerns about private letter ratings and systemic risk - Management disagreed with concerns about systemic risk in the insurance industry, highlighting Athene's strong credit quality and diversified ratings [56][60] Question: Impact of declining rates on demand for yield - Management acknowledged potential challenges but expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt and continue driving growth [61]

Core Insights - The private markets are increasingly becoming accessible to the public, with asset managers exploring ways to package private assets into retirement accounts like 401(k)s [6][7][8] - Major banks reported strong earnings, with Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America being standout performers due to a robust IPO and M&A market [1][2][3] - Investment banking activity is experiencing significant growth, with M&A deal values in September up over 110% year-over-year and a 239% increase in Q3 compared to the previous year [2][3] Banking Sector Performance - All major banks exceeded earnings expectations, with notable growth in investment banking fees, particularly for Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, which saw increases of 43% and 44% year-over-year respectively [1][2] - Wells Fargo's stock rose 10% post-earnings, with management projecting 17-18% returns on tangible common equity, a revision from previous estimates [1][3] - Bank of America reported a surprising decline in credit loss provisions, indicating a positive outlook for the bank's financial health [1][3] Investment Banking Trends - The investment banking market is described as "red hot," with significant increases in M&A activity and IPOs anticipated as market conditions improve [2][3] - JP Morgan's CFO noted that there are IPO deals ready to launch, reflecting a favorable environment for investment banking [2] - Morgan Stanley expressed optimism for the next 3-5 years in the investment banking sector, indicating a sustained positive trend [2] Private Credit Concerns - Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan raised concerns about the state of private credit, particularly in light of recent bankruptcies among private companies [3][4] - There is a perceived fragility in the current economic environment, contrasting with the strong performance reported by banks [4] - The auto lending industry, especially subprime loans, is viewed as a potential risk area, warranting close monitoring [4] Private Assets in Retirement Accounts - The trend of making private assets available in retirement accounts is gaining traction, with potential benefits and risks for individual investors [6][7][8] - There are concerns about high fees associated with private asset investments, which could undermine the advantages of increased investment choices [6][7] - The discussion around deregulation and access to private assets highlights the need for investor education to mitigate risks [7][8] Company Highlights - TripAdvisor is highlighted for its potential value, particularly through its brand Viator, which could be worth more than TripAdvisor's current market cap if spun off [12] - Empire State Realty Trust is noted for its strong performance and potential undervaluation in the New York City office market [13] - SLM Corp (Sallie Mae) is recognized for its solid credit quality in student loans, presenting a hidden investment opportunity [14]