ab 17 September 2025 Global Research Global Battery Supply Chain U.S. BESS Policy 12 FAQs Based on investor feedback from our recent APAC Focus report on ESS Battery Boom and Expert call on FEOC/PFE (Foreign Entity of Concern/Prohibited Foreign Entity) Restrictions on Energy Tax Credits, we present the 12 key questions and answers in this report. 1. Will the Production Tax Credit (PTC) ($35/kWh cell and $10/kWh module) remain unchanged in duration, value and eligibility? A: The value and duration through 20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Energy has demonstrated strong performance in its second-quarter earnings, beating analyst estimates and highlighting its essential role in the digital economy, with its stock price increasing over 87% in the past year [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Market Position - The company aims to leverage its extensive carbon-free nuclear fleet to meet the growing energy demands of the AI and data center sectors [2][3]. - Constellation's nuclear fleet, the largest in the U.S., is well-positioned to provide the reliable, clean energy required by technology companies facing sustainability pressures [3]. Group 2: Recent Achievements - A significant 20-year power agreement with Meta Platforms Inc. secures predictable revenue and finances a 30-megawatt capacity upgrade at the Clinton Clean Energy Center, demonstrating how corporate demand drives organic growth [4]. - The planned acquisition of Calpine is expected to add over $2 billion in annual free cash flow and diversify Constellation's energy portfolio, combining gas power with carbon-free nuclear energy [4][5]. Group 3: Financial and Policy Support - The federal nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) provides a revenue floor for Constellation's nuclear fleet through 2032, enhancing earnings stability and insulating the company from commodity market volatility [6]. - Constellation maintains a strong investment-grade balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.79, and has initiated a $400 million accelerated share repurchase program alongside a commitment to a 10% dividend increase for 2025 [7][8]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Perception - Constellation's stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 35x, significantly higher than typical utility sector valuations, reflecting its perception as a critical AI infrastructure provider [9][10]. - Analysts have set a 12-month price target of $309.29, with some high-end forecasts reaching $390, indicating potential upside as the company executes its AI-driven strategy [10][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a boost in future earnings from the recent PJM capacity auction, projecting an uplift of approximately $0.50 per share in 2026, growing to $1.50 per share in 2027 [12]. - Constellation is accelerating the restart of its Crane Clean Energy Center, expected to come online in 2027, a year ahead of schedule, showcasing operational excellence [12]. Group 6: Challenges Ahead - The primary challenge for investors is the stock's high valuation, which has already factored in significant future success, necessitating flawless execution in upcoming milestones such as the Calpine acquisition and new data center contracts [15].

Core Viewpoint - CVR Energy reported mixed financial results for Q2 2025, with revenue exceeding analyst expectations but adjusted EPS falling short, indicating operational challenges and regulatory impacts [1][2]. Financial Performance - GAAP revenue for Q2 2025 was $1,761 million, surpassing the analyst consensus of $1,688.8 million, but down 10.5% from $1,967 million in Q2 2024 [2]. - Adjusted EPS was $(0.23), missing the expected $(0.13) and reflecting a 355.6% decline from $0.09 in Q2 2024 [2]. - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of $(114) million, a significant drop from a net income of $21 million in the same quarter last year, marking a 642.9% decline [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA increased to $99 million, a 13.8% rise from $87 million in Q2 2024 [2]. Business Segments Overview - CVR Energy operates in three segments: petroleum refining, renewable fuels, and nitrogen fertilizers, with a focus on high-value transportation fuels and renewable diesel production [3][4]. - The petroleum segment faced challenges due to a planned refinery turnaround, reducing throughput and significantly impacting refining margins [5]. - The renewables segment continued to operate below breakeven, with throughput increasing but facing losses due to regulatory uncertainties [6]. - The nitrogen fertilizer segment showed stronger results, with net income rising to $39 million driven by higher prices for ammonia and UAN products [7][8]. Operational Challenges and Developments - The petroleum segment's refining margin dropped to $2.21 per barrel from $10.94 last year, impacted by a pre-tax $89 million loss related to Renewable Fuel Standard obligations [5][9]. - The renewables segment's adjusted EBITDA loss was $4 million, with throughput improving but still heavily reliant on government policies [6]. - Regulatory and compliance costs significantly affected profitability, with ongoing capital investments for environmental upgrades [9]. Leadership Changes - Dave Lamp announced his retirement as CEO, with Mark Pytosh set to take over in January 2026, and Brett Icahn appointed to the board, increasing Icahn Enterprises' influence [10]. Future Guidance - Management expects petroleum segment throughput of 200,000 to 215,000 barrels per day and ammonia utilization rates of 93% to 97% in the fertilizer segment [11]. - Cash flow concerns persist, with free cash flow turning negative by $12 million and a decline in cash position from $987 million at the end of 2024 to $596 million by June 30, 2025 [12].

Core Insights - Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is significantly benefiting from the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for nuclear energy, which provides a per-kilowatt-hour incentive for electricity generated from eligible resources [1][2][9] - The PTC, part of the Inflation Reduction Act, enhances CEG's revenues, especially during low power market prices, thereby protecting profitability and supporting the operation of nuclear plants [2][9] - CEG anticipates over 13% adjusted operating earnings growth through 2030, driven by PTC benefits, operational improvements, and planned refueling outages [3][9] Financial Performance - CEG's shares have increased by 39.4% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 19.1% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 9% increase in earnings per share for 2025 and a 22.09% increase for 2026 [11] - CEG is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 29.43X compared to the industry average of 20.8X [14] Revenue Protection Mechanism - The PTC provides crucial downside protection for CEG's nuclear plants when revenues fall below $44.75/MWh, with inflation adjustments enhancing this safeguard [4][9] - CEG expects an incremental base revenue of $500 million in 2028, contingent on inflation adjustments between 2.3% and 2.6% [4] Growth Initiatives - CEG's consistent PTC earnings allow for investments in growth initiatives such as repowering wind assets, extending plant licenses, and acquiring new assets [3][5]