[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 17 Jul 2025 Global AI Industrial and Energy 政策刺激又下一城，特朗普于宾夕法尼亚公布新 AI 及能源投资计划 Trump unveils new AI and energy investment plans in Pennsylvania 杨斌 Bin Yang 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao bin.yang@htisec.com olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com 投资建议：建议关注受益于政策带来的减税降费及产能扩张所需的相应设备投资的企业如【Vistra】、 【Constellation】、【Talen Energy】、【GE Vernova】、【Siemens Energy】、【Hyundai Electric】、【LS Electric】、 【Schneider Electric】、【Eaton】、【Vertiv】。 风险提示：美国 AI 产业发展不及预期风险；美国电网建设不及预期风险；美国政策变化风险；地缘政治风险。 [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash An ...

Key Takeaways CEG is broadening its clean energy mix and plans to produce 100% carbon-free electricity by 2040. The company offers products like CORe and EFECs to help businesses access carbon-free electricity. CEG shares are up 49.1% in three months, outperforming the industry's 28.1% gain.Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is benefiting from renewable energy options in several ways, primarily by expanding its portfolio of clean energy sources, attracting environmentally conscious customers and enhan ...

The artificial intelligence (AI) boom has a dirty little secret: The technology is an energy hog of epic proportions. Training an advanced frontier large language model can consume as much electricity as 1,000 U.S. homes use in a year, depending on model size and run time. As Microsoft (MSFT 0.62%), Amazon (AMZN 0.38%), and Alphabet (GOOGL 0.35%) race to build ever-larger AI systems, they're hitting a wall that has nothing to do with computing power -- it's the electrical grid. The math is brutal. Data cent ...

RT Will Wade (@willwwade)Constellation Energy is planning to pursue a nuclear project in upstate New York, responding to a push from the governor -- SCOOP with @tylerskendall $CEGhttps://t.co/uLGFx5yCki ...

Constellation Energy is planning to pursue a nuclear project in upstate New York, responding to a push from the governor https://t.co/FgUlUTgog8 ...

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) has experienced a significant share price increase of 51.7% over the past three months, outperforming the Zacks Alternate Energy – Other industry's growth of 28.2%, primarily due to its strong nuclear operations [1][8]. Group 1: Company Performance - CEG's nuclear fleet provides a reliable, stable, and affordable source of electricity, contributing to environmental sustainability by producing zero-emission energy [1]. - The company expects capital expenditures of nearly $3 billion for 2025 and $3.5 billion for 2026, with approximately 35% allocated for the acquisition of nuclear fuel to increase inventory levels [4][8]. - CEG's nuclear fleet capacity factor was 94.1% in the first quarter, an improvement from 93.3% in the previous year [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - CEG is focusing on powering data centers directly from its nuclear energy generation facilities, which helps avoid costly long-distance power transmission [6][9]. - The company anticipates more than 13% adjusted operating earnings growth on base earnings through 2030, driven by factors such as production tax credits and improvements in outage durations [9]. Group 3: Financial Metrics - CEG's trailing 12-month return on equity stands at 21.93%, significantly higher than the industry average of 8.41%, indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds [16]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share indicates a decrease of 1.05%, while the estimate for 2026 implies a slight increase of 0.7% over the past 60 days [11]. Group 4: Shareholder Value - CEG has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $3 billion, with approximately $841 million remaining as of March 31, 2025 [18]. - The company aims to increase its annual dividend by 10%, subject to board approval, and pays a quarterly dividend to its shareholders [19]. Group 5: Valuation - CEG is currently trading at a premium compared to its industry on a forward 12-month P/E basis, indicating a higher valuation relative to peers [20].

Core Insights - Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is expanding its market reach and clean energy portfolio through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, aiming for opportunistic energy acquisitions focused on reliability [1][5] Acquisition Details - In January 2025, CEG announced the acquisition of Calpine for nearly $16.4 billion in a cash and stock transaction, combining CEG's clean energy production with Calpine's natural gas assets, enhancing customer supply capabilities [2][9] - The acquisition is expected to close in Q4 2025 after receiving regulatory approval from the New York State Public Service Commission in June 2025 [2] Financial Impact - The acquisition is projected to boost CEG's earnings per share (EPS) by over 20% in 2026 and add at least $2 to EPS through 2029, with the combined company expected to generate over $2 billion in free cash flow annually before growth [3][5] Recent Acquisitions - In 2023, CEG acquired a 44% stake in the South Texas Project Electric Generating Station for $1.75 billion, adding nearly 1,100 megawatts of output to its carbon-free nuclear fleet [4] Market Position - CEG's strategic acquisitions are enhancing its position as a leading clean energy provider, expanding its customer base, and increasing financial strength, with immediate earnings accretion and significant free cash flow expected [5][9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 9% increase in EPS for 2025 and a 22% increase for 2026, with current estimates for the next quarters showing growth [8][10] Stock Performance - CEG is trading at a premium with a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 30.08X compared to the industry average of 20.72X, and its shares have risen 29.8% over the past six months, outperforming the industry's 13.2% growth [11][13]

Finding the next big thing is easier said than done when it comes to the most significant and powerful themes in the global economy. Those who were early enough to the semiconductor boom born out of the artificial intelligence race are familiar with the effort and courage it takes to back an idea, or commercialize it, before it pops in the entire stock market. However, one area in the energy sector has all the characteristics of being one of the next booms in the global economy. The rate of fossil fuel depe ...

Core Viewpoint - The utility sector is poised for significant growth due to a surge in electricity demand driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, data centers, and electric vehicles, with a projected increase in demand of 55% over the next 20 years compared to just 9% from 2000 to 2020 [3][4]. Industry Trends - Electricity demand grew by 9% from 2000 to 2020, but is expected to grow by 55% over the next two decades [3]. - The demand for electricity from AI and data centers is projected to increase by 300% in the next decade, while electric vehicles are expected to drive a staggering 9,000% increase in electricity demand by 2050 [4]. - By the middle of the century, electricity is projected to account for 32% of final energy demand, up from 21% [4]. Investment Opportunities - Vanguard Utilities Index Fund ETF (VPU) offers diversified exposure to the utility sector with a yield of approximately 2.8% [6]. - NextEra Energy (NEE) has a strong growth platform with a 10% annualized dividend increase over the past decade and a yield of around 3.2% [7][8]. - The Southern Company (SO) has recently started two nuclear reactors, enhancing its clean energy supply and yielding 3.2% [9]. - Duke Energy (DUK) focuses on regulated utility customer bases, with a dividend yield of about 3.5% [10]. - Dominion Energy (D) has a higher yield of 4.7% but has faced challenges with a dividend cut [11]. - Black Hills Corporation (BKH) has achieved Dividend King status with a yield of 4.8% and a growing customer base [12]. - Constellation Energy (CEG) operates the largest nuclear power fleet in the U.S. but has a lower yield of 0.5% [13]. - Brookfield Renewable offers a diversified clean energy investment with yields of 5.8% for the partnership class and 4.5% for the corporate class [14][15]. - Portland General Electric (POR) has a yield of 5.1% and operates in a region with potential for data centers despite wildfire risks [17]. - Eversource Energy (ES) focuses on regulated utility assets with a yield of approximately 4.7% [18]. Long-term Outlook - The trends driving electricity demand are expected to unfold over decades, presenting opportunities for long-term investors to build wealth as the demand growth story develops [19].

Group 1 - Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) is well-positioned to benefit from the new wave of investment in AI-related data centers in the US [1] - The company is identified as a key beneficiary of the growing demand for AI technologies and infrastructure [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic analysis and systemic risk assessment in investment strategies [1] - It highlights the use of advanced tools like Bloomberg and Excel modeling for sector analysis and risk monitoring [1]