Presumptive Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh has in the past voiced tentative support for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), viewing it as a tool to inform policymakers rather than a threat to monetary stability. Bitcoin – Not A Trouble, But Policy Signal In a May 2025 interview with the Hoover Institution, the former Fed governor said the U.S. economy is poised for a productivity boom and that the Fed only needs modest adjustments, not a revolution, to maintain its core strengths. He added that Bitcoin does not make ...

Economic Outlook - The economy is considered very healthy, with potential for a significant boom next year, contingent on lower interest rates to facilitate investment spending, particularly in infrastructure for factory construction [6][7] - Non-financial corporate productivity growth has risen by 35% in the last four quarters [6] - Tariffs have not had the anticipated negative effects, and lower rates are needed to strengthen interest-sensitive sectors, as inflation is a lagging indicator [7][8] - The market reflects confidence in current policies, indicated by tight credit spreads and strong performance in both bond and equity markets [17] Fiscal Policy & Investment - Full expensing for factories is permanent, which will spur a supply-side boom evident in GDP data, with further acceleration expected next year [5] - Capex grew nearly 15% in real terms in the first half of the year, the largest increase since 2011-2012, excluding the pandemic period, which typically precedes hiring cycles and manufacturing job growth [10] - The bill providing 100% expensing for factories, with a normal shelf life of nearly 40 years, allows full expensing in year one, effective until 2028 [11] Labor Market & Wages - Real wages fell, impacting consumer sentiment [13] - Blue-collar workers have seen a 16% annualized increase through November of this year, marking one of the largest increases in the last 60 years at the start of a new administration [15] - Rising participation in the job market and new highs in the stock market contradict claims of economic misery [18] Tax & Revenue - Revenue share of GDP is over 17%, with spending being the primary concern [20] - Maintaining low taxes on labor and capital is crucial for fostering growth, creating goods, services, industries, and jobs [24] - If the economy grows at 3%, approximately $4 trillion more in revenue could be generated compared to CBO predictions, benefiting the long-term budget outlook [24] Deficit & Debt - Deficit numbers have improved under the current administration [28] - The tax cuts and jobs act effectively paid for itself, considering CBO scoring and revenue outcomes [28]

Let's bring in Greg Do. That's a good idea. >> He thinks this report wasn't just noisy and full of gaps, but that it shows a downwardly biased view of inflation.Greg, am I saying that correctly. What do you see here that jumps out to you. >> Yeah, that's absolutely right, Kelly.And I think Steve put it well. Uh, it was full of gaps for sure. It was very noisy.It was messy, but there was a downward bias. And this downward bias to clarify what Steve was mentioning is due to the BLS methodology when it comes t ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market pullback is seen as a healthy development, indicating a shift in sentiment towards higher quality companies, which have underperformed in the past six months [1][2][3]. Market Sentiment and Valuations - There has been a notable underperformance of higher quality names, suggesting a shift in market sentiment where valuations and balance sheets are gaining more attention [2]. - The speculative and aggressively valued stocks have driven the market to recent highs, leaving higher quality companies behind [3]. Economic Indicators - A stabilization in the labor market, particularly in small businesses and cyclical sectors, is necessary for higher quality companies to thrive [5]. - The ideal scenario for these companies would be a "Goldilocks" environment, where economic conditions are neither too hot nor too cold [4][6]. Recession Risks - There is a 45% probability of recession within the next 12 months, which is considered uncomfortably high compared to other Wall Street estimates [6]. - Current labor market conditions show some cracks, and clarity is expected in the coming weeks regarding the labor market's direction and potential productivity gains from AI investments [7].

Economic Outlook & Investment Strategy - KKR认为美国正在经历类似于1990年代的生产力繁荣，这能够支持更高的工资、承受关税对利润率的影响，并最终推动收入增长 [8][9] - KKR的基本观点是，美国经济将继续以1.5%到2%的速度增长，并且可能略有上升 [14] - KKR预计美联储今年将降息两次，明年将降息三次，以支持市场 [15][28] - KKR认为企业正在继续增加资本支出，消费者状况良好，因此当前市场水平相对安全 [16] Sector & Regional Analysis - AI资本支出增长超过了个人消费的所有增长，这是一个巨大的变化 [3] - 亚洲市场（尤其是韩国和日本）存在投资机会，这些市场的估值较低，且企业正在进行改革 [17][18][19] - 亚洲内部贸易正在增长，预计将从目前的48%-50%增长到70%，类似于欧洲和美洲的水平，这将推动物流基础设施的发展 [22][23] Risks & Concerns - 如果AI领域的回报率下降过快，可能会对GDP产生影响 [26] - 如果失业率大幅上升至5.5%，将对经济体系造成冲击 [26] - 低收入消费者正在感受到更高通胀的影响，一些杠杆实体因利率上升而面临压力 [15] Labor Market Dynamics - 政府部门就业岗位的减少和医疗保健及教育行业的窄幅关注可能会导致政府数据表现不佳 [10] - KKR观察到企业招聘速度放缓，但没有出现大规模裁员 [11] - 如果不是因为特朗普政府限制了劳动力供应，失业率可能会接近5% [12]