join us now. Looks like he swallowed a caneric count counselor to to uh the Treasury Secretary Joe Leavia. You might actually know things instead of just being conjecturing what you heard this discussion.>> Yeah, I mean there are four great candidates. I mean the street is very familiar with all four and they would all be very good and I think Steve is exactly correct. The secretary is done a very thorough process and is going to give the president that list. He's given the president the list and it's the p ...

Let's bring in Greg Do. That's a good idea. >> He thinks this report wasn't just noisy and full of gaps, but that it shows a downwardly biased view of inflation.Greg, am I saying that correctly. What do you see here that jumps out to you. >> Yeah, that's absolutely right, Kelly.And I think Steve put it well. Uh, it was full of gaps for sure. It was very noisy.It was messy, but there was a downward bias. And this downward bias to clarify what Steve was mentioning is due to the BLS methodology when it comes t ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market pullback is seen as a healthy development, indicating a shift in sentiment towards higher quality companies, which have underperformed in the past six months [1][2][3]. Market Sentiment and Valuations - There has been a notable underperformance of higher quality names, suggesting a shift in market sentiment where valuations and balance sheets are gaining more attention [2]. - The speculative and aggressively valued stocks have driven the market to recent highs, leaving higher quality companies behind [3]. Economic Indicators - A stabilization in the labor market, particularly in small businesses and cyclical sectors, is necessary for higher quality companies to thrive [5]. - The ideal scenario for these companies would be a "Goldilocks" environment, where economic conditions are neither too hot nor too cold [4][6]. Recession Risks - There is a 45% probability of recession within the next 12 months, which is considered uncomfortably high compared to other Wall Street estimates [6]. - Current labor market conditions show some cracks, and clarity is expected in the coming weeks regarding the labor market's direction and potential productivity gains from AI investments [7].

Economic Outlook & Investment Strategy - KKR认为美国正在经历类似于1990年代的生产力繁荣，这能够支持更高的工资、承受关税对利润率的影响，并最终推动收入增长 [8][9] - KKR的基本观点是，美国经济将继续以1.5%到2%的速度增长，并且可能略有上升 [14] - KKR预计美联储今年将降息两次，明年将降息三次，以支持市场 [15][28] - KKR认为企业正在继续增加资本支出，消费者状况良好，因此当前市场水平相对安全 [16] Sector & Regional Analysis - AI资本支出增长超过了个人消费的所有增长，这是一个巨大的变化 [3] - 亚洲市场（尤其是韩国和日本）存在投资机会，这些市场的估值较低，且企业正在进行改革 [17][18][19] - 亚洲内部贸易正在增长，预计将从目前的48%-50%增长到70%，类似于欧洲和美洲的水平，这将推动物流基础设施的发展 [22][23] Risks & Concerns - 如果AI领域的回报率下降过快，可能会对GDP产生影响 [26] - 如果失业率大幅上升至5.5%，将对经济体系造成冲击 [26] - 低收入消费者正在感受到更高通胀的影响，一些杠杆实体因利率上升而面临压力 [15] Labor Market Dynamics - 政府部门就业岗位的减少和医疗保健及教育行业的窄幅关注可能会导致政府数据表现不佳 [10] - KKR观察到企业招聘速度放缓，但没有出现大规模裁员 [11] - 如果不是因为特朗普政府限制了劳动力供应，失业率可能会接近5% [12]