Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Property** industry, particularly the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the performance of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) versus Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs) in the sector [2][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Muted Nationwide Policy**: - The expectation is that meaningful nationwide housing stimulus will remain muted in 4Q 2025 due to several factors: - Recent home price declines have been steady but less severe compared to the period before the 2024 housing stimulus [4][10]. - No new risk points have emerged from weakened property sales [4]. - The property sector's role in driving GDP growth has diminished [4]. - Housing is unlikely to be a focus in the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session [4]. 2. **Weak Physical Market Anticipated**: - The market has priced in deeper year-on-year declines in property sales for 4Q based on: - High-frequency data indicating wider year-on-year declines [5]. - Continued deterioration in secondary listing prices and volumes [5]. - Marginal easing in tier 1 cities [5]. - An escalating base effect due to easing measures in September of the previous year [5]. - Any better-than-expected performance from individual developers could be seen as an upside surprise [5]. 3. **Stock Recommendations**: - The call suggests accumulating positions in quality SOEs, particularly **CR Land** and **C&D**, which are expected to outperform due to their strong sales potential amid margin recovery [6][10][11]. - Caution is advised regarding POEs, as their older and depleting landbanks may negatively impact sales and earnings [6]. 4. **Long-term and Tactical Stock Ideas**: - **CR Land (1109.HK)**: Expected business transformation and potential upward revisions on mall rentals [11]. - **C&D (1908.HK)**: Anticipated strong launches of high-margin projects leading to a projected earnings CAGR of over 15% from 2024 to 2027 [11]. - Tactical plays include **COLI (0688.HK)**, **Jinmao (0817.HK)**, and **Yuexiu**, which are seen as fundamental beneficiaries due to their below-peer price-to-book ratios [11][12]. 5. **Consumption Beneficiary**: - **CR Mixc (1209.HK)** is highlighted for its positive same-store sales growth and improving cash collection, which enhances dividend visibility [12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for the property market, with expectations of continued challenges in the near term [4][5]. - The call emphasizes the importance of selecting quality SOEs for potential investment, given the anticipated market pull-back [6][10]. - Analysts express a belief that the current environment may present a good entry point for investors looking for quality assets in the property sector [2][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call regarding the China Property industry, focusing on the anticipated market conditions and stock performance outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights specific companies with "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations [49][50]. Core Insights - The primary market is experiencing a continued decline, with new home sales volume down 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, while tier-3 and Central & Western cities are outperforming [5][9]. - Secondary market transactions are showing a slight decline, with average sales down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, indicating negative price appreciation expectations from agents and homeowners [26][28]. - The focus on urban renewal policies is expected to positively impact the market, particularly through demand-side stimulus measures such as urban village redevelopment [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - New homes sales volume decreased by 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, with tier-3 and Central & Western cities outperforming [5]. - Secondary transactions were down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, with negative price expectations from agents and homeowners [26]. - Year-to-date, primary gross floor area (GFA) sold is down 1% year-over-year, while secondary GFA sold is up 16% year-over-year [8][28]. Inventory and Completions - Inventory balance decreased by 0.1% week-over-week and 3.9% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.0 [36]. - Completions are expected to decline by mid-to-high teens year-over-year for June 2025, with a projected 10% decline for the full year [41]. Valuation and Developer Performance - Offshore developers saw an average share price increase of 6% week-over-week, outperforming the MSCI China index [49]. - Onshore developers averaged a 2% increase week-over-week, with specific companies like China Jinmao and Longfor receiving "Buy" ratings [49][50]. - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for offshore and onshore coverage is at 0.5X for 2025E, indicating a significant discount to net asset value (NAV) [49].