Core Insights - Quantum computing is emerging as a transformative technology, with significant investor interest reflected in the stock prices of companies like Rigetti Computing [1] - The year 2026 may serve as a reality check for quantum computing investments, suggesting a shift in focus from newer companies to established players like IBM [2] Company Insights - Rigetti Computing is recognized for its superconducting quantum computing technology, with its Cepheus-1-108Q system expected to be the largest modular quantum computing system available by the end of Q1 2026 [4] - Rigetti's manufacturing capabilities are highlighted, as it has established the first dedicated foundry for quantum integrated circuits, positioning itself as a leader in design and fabrication [5] - Despite its potential, Rigetti faces challenges, including ongoing financial losses, with reported revenue of only $1.9 million in the latest quarter, and competition from other companies using similar superconducting technology [6] IBM Insights - IBM is a major competitor to Rigetti, boasting over 300 clients and partners, and has developed the widely used Qiskit software for quantum computing [7][8] - IBM's Quantum Nighthawk QPU, which supports 120 qubits, has already been released, while Rigetti's system launch has been delayed [8] - IBM aims to achieve quantum advantage by 2026 and has plans for a fault-tolerant 200-qubit quantum computer by 2029, with aspirations for systems supporting up to 2,000 qubits beyond 2033 [9] - Financially, IBM is well-positioned, expecting a free cash flow of around $14 billion for the full year 2025, with a cash position of $14.9 billion at the end of Q3 2025 [10] Investment Perspective - While Rigetti Computing has long-term potential, its success is contingent on its technology matching or exceeding that of competitors [11] - IBM's diversified business model allows it to remain successful even if its quantum computing investments do not yield immediate results, showcasing its adaptability in the evolving tech landscape [11] - Overall, IBM is viewed as the more strategically positioned company in the quantum computing race compared to Rigetti [12]

Core Insights - UBS has identified key quantum computing stocks leading the industry, highlighting the technology's "extraordinary potential" [1] - The analysts predict that the era of quantum advantage, where quantum systems significantly outperform classical systems, could arrive as early as the 2030s [2] Quantum Computing Market Overview - The quantum computing market is described as fragmented and immature, with significant potential in areas such as molecular simulation, optimization, AI, and cryptography [1] - Recent "meaningful breakthroughs" in quantum technology have been noted, despite the slow overall progress [2] Key Players in Quantum Computing - Alphabet Inc.'s Google is recognized as the "pioneer" and leader in quantum computing, while Microsoft and Amazon are seen as more diversified players [4] - Pure-play quantum technology companies like IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Rigetti Computing are noted to be more volatile compared to the broader market [4] Performance of Quantum Stocks - Over the past year, IonQ, D-Wave Quantum, and Rigetti have seen stock price increases of 12.12%, 358.35%, and 83.26%, respectively [5] Industry Trends and Future Outlook - Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai compared the current state of quantum computing to AI five years ago, indicating an imminent exciting phase in the sector [6] - Smaller companies in the quantum computing space, such as Quantum Computing Inc., are also gaining attention, with recent stock rises attributed to identified opportunities in quantum and opto-electronics [6]

Rigetti Computing FY Conference Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Rigetti Computing (NasdaqCM:RGTI) - **Founded**: 2013 - **Headquarters**: Berkeley, California - **Industry**: Quantum Computing - **Technology**: Focus on superconducting qubits, which are considered the leading modality in quantum computing due to scalability and speed [1][4] Key Points and Arguments Quantum Computing Technology - Rigetti's quantum computers utilize superconducting qubits, achieving gate speeds of 50-70 nanoseconds, significantly faster than other modalities like ion traps [1][5] - The company has developed the first multi-chip quantum processor for scalable systems, manufacturing QPUs in-house at Fab 1, the first dedicated quantum device manufacturing facility [1][4] - Over 90% of current investments in quantum computing are in superconducting gate technology, with major players including IBM, Google, and the Chinese government [5] Scalability and Speed - Scalability and gate speed are critical advantages of superconducting technology, with Rigetti's systems operating at speeds comparable to CPUs and GPUs [5][6] - Historical challenges in fidelity for superconducting qubits have improved, with recent advancements showing fidelity rates of 99.5%-99.7% [8] Go-to-Market Strategy - Rigetti has chosen a hybrid approach, selling both physical quantum computers and offering quantum computing as a service [10] - The company tailors its offerings based on customer needs, providing either complete systems or just QPUs depending on existing infrastructure [13][14] Quantum Advantage - Rigetti is conservative in its estimates, projecting that quantum advantage could be achieved in about three years, requiring at least 1,000 qubits, 99.9% fidelity, and 50 nanosecond gate speeds [18][19] - The company emphasizes the importance of demonstrating clear superiority over classical computing in practical applications [19][21] Roadmap and Future Goals - Immediate goal is to deploy a 108-qubit system with 99.5% fidelity and 60-nanosecond gate speed by the end of Q1 2026 [33] - Plans to exceed 150 qubits at 99.7% fidelity within the year, with a long-term goal of reaching 1,000 qubits at 99.8% fidelity by 2027 [35] Partnerships and Collaborations - Rigetti has partnered with various companies for different aspects of its technology stack, including Riverlane for error correction and NVIDIA for distribution layer software [40][41] - The company believes in an open and modular architecture, allowing for integration of innovative solutions from other firms [39] Government Funding and Market Outlook - The U.S. government is expected to increase funding for quantum computing significantly, with recent initiatives indicating a commitment to maintaining leadership in the field [69][70] - Rigetti anticipates that the market for quantum computing will grow to approximately $3 billion by 2030 and $15-$20 billion by 2035 [17] Customer Base and Applications - Current customers include Fermilab, Air Force Research Laboratory, and Montana State University, primarily using systems for research applications [60] - The company does not foresee practical workloads being handled by quantum computers until quantum advantage is achieved [60] Additional Important Insights - Rigetti's balance sheet is strong, with $600 million in cash and no debt, allowing for a focus on organic growth and technology milestones [70] - The company stresses the need for patience in the quantum computing sector, indicating that significant advancements will take time [72]

Investor Presentation January 2026 Cautionary Notes Forward Looking Statements: Certain statements in this presentation may be considered forward-looking statements, including statements with respect to the Company's outlook and expectations, including expectations with respect to a plan to deliver 108Q chiplet-based system at 99.5% median 2Q gate fidelity around the end of Q1 2026 and to reach 1,000+Q at 99.9% median 2Q median fidelity at <50 ns gate speed in 3-5 years to enable quantum advantage; an antic ...

Industry Overview - Quantum computing is attracting investor interest due to its potential for significant commercial disruption and long-term technological ambition [1] - The industry is in early stages, but progress in optimization, simulation, and advanced analytics is becoming clearer [1] Company Strategies - Rigetti Computing focuses on superconducting, gate-based quantum processors and aims for fault-tolerant systems through a modular "chiplet" approach [5][10] - IonQ utilizes trapped-ion technology, emphasizing qubit quality and customer traction, with a clearer commercialization narrative [6][12] Price Performance - Rigetti's stock has increased by 118.3% over the past six months, while IonQ's stock has risen by 25.7% during the same period [3] Business Models - Rigetti's revenue model is heavily reliant on research-driven customers, including government agencies and early enterprise pilots, which may not stabilize revenue [8] - IonQ is focusing on commercialization by making its systems accessible through cloud platforms, allowing for a monetization strategy based on customer usage [9] Growth Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year decline of 26.88%, with a projected loss per share of 68 cents [14] - In contrast, IonQ's 2025 sales are expected to grow by 151.78%, with a projected loss per share of $5.08 [17] Investment Considerations - Rigetti is seen as a longer-term investment focused on hardware scalability, while IonQ offers a more immediate path to usability and customer adoption [13][22] - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and a Value Score of F, indicating that their stocks are priced based on future potential rather than current fundamentals [20]

Core Insights - Quantum computing is a transformative technology with the potential to outperform traditional supercomputers, as demonstrated by D-Wave Quantum's capabilities [1][3] - The competition between D-Wave and IBM highlights the challenges and opportunities in the quantum computing sector, particularly in achieving "quantum advantage" [2][12] D-Wave Overview - D-Wave specializes in annealing quantum computers, claiming to have solved problems beyond the reach of supercomputers [3][4] - The company reported revenue of $21.8 million for the first three quarters of 2025, a significant increase from $6.5 million in 2024, but also faced an operating loss of $65.5 million due to rising expenses [6] - D-Wave is also exploring quantum gate technology to enhance its capabilities, claiming to be the only company utilizing both annealing and gate-based methods [5] IBM Overview - IBM has a long history in technology and has made significant advancements in quantum computing, including the launch of its Qiskit software and cloud-based quantum devices [7][8] - The company announced its new Nighthawk quantum processor, aiming to achieve quantum advantage by the end of 2026, and plans to develop a fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029 [10][11] - IBM's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was $47.8 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase, with a net income of $5 billion [11] Investment Comparison - When comparing D-Wave and IBM for investment, technological superiority and share price valuation are critical factors [12][14] - D-Wave's price-to-sales ratio remains high compared to its historical levels and is significantly above IBM's, suggesting that IBM may offer better value [14] - Given IBM's advancements and financial stability, it is positioned as the superior long-term investment in quantum computing compared to D-Wave [14]

Core Insights - Horizon Quantum Computing has successfully assembled and integrated its first operational quantum computer at its headquarters in Singapore, marking it as the first quantum software company to own and operate such a system [1][2][3] Company Developments - The quantum computer was assembled from best-in-class components, including Maybell's cryogenic platform, Quantum Machines' control electronics, and a Rigetti superconducting quantum processor, establishing a testbed facility capable of hosting multiple systems [4][5] - The modular design of the quantum system allows for the swapping of control electronics and quantum processors, enabling diverse configurations and architectures for software integration [5] - Horizon Quantum aims to provide hardware-agnostic development tools for quantum computers, with plans to operate across various hardware platforms, including cloud-based systems and traditional data centers [5][6] Strategic Vision - The company emphasizes the importance of tight integration between hardware and software to achieve quantum advantage, positioning itself to build a sophisticated development and execution stack that closely coordinates with hardware control systems [6][7] - Horizon Quantum's integrated development environment, Triple Alpha, is expected to enhance its functionality through the commissioning of the new quantum computer, facilitating seamless quantum application development [3][9] Leadership and Future Plans - Dr. Joe Fitzsimons, founder and CEO, expressed confidence that establishing an in-house hardware testbed will significantly contribute to the company's mission of solving complex real-world problems through quantum computing [6] - The company is in the process of completing a business combination with dMY Squared Technology Group, which is anticipated to accelerate its growth and execution towards its vision [7][12]

Core Insights - Quantum computing is gaining significant attention due to its potential to solve complex problems that classical systems cannot handle, presenting a unique investment opportunity in a future trillion-dollar industry [1] Company Approaches - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is advancing a gate-based superconducting architecture aimed at universality and scalability, recently launching a 36-qubit system with a median two-qubit gate fidelity of approximately 99.5% [5][12] - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) focuses on quantum annealing and hybrid solvers for immediate deployment in optimization problems, providing a near-term value proposition for industries [6][13] Price Performance - RGTI shares have increased by 67.5% year-to-date, while QBTS stock has surged by 166.7% in the same period [3] Business Models - RGTI's revenue is primarily derived from government contracts and research collaborations, leading to unpredictable revenue flows [8] - QBTS is pursuing a diversified revenue model that includes hardware sales and enterprise engagements, indicating a shift towards a more stable revenue base [9] Recent Financials - RGTI reported revenues of approximately $1.9 million, down from $2.4 million year-over-year, with elevated operating expenses of around $21 million [10] - QBTS experienced a strong quarterly performance with revenues doubling to $3.7 million and a significant increase in cash reserves to $836.2 million [11] Future Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RGTI's 2025 sales indicates a year-over-year decline of 23.82%, with a projected loss per share of 68 cents [15] - In contrast, QBTS's 2025 sales are expected to grow by 188.6%, with a projected loss per share of 23 cents [18] Investment Considerations - RGTI is positioned for long-term scalability with its gate-based systems, while QBTS offers immediate commercial activity and momentum [23] - The choice between RGTI and QBTS depends on investor preference for near-term traction versus long-term potential in quantum computing [14][23]

Core Insights - The article discusses the advancements in AI technology by Quantum Computing Inc. (QCi) and IBM, highlighting their respective approaches and market positions in the AI industry [1][2]. Quantum Computing Inc. (QCi) - QCi is focused on developing quantum computers that utilize photons, which can operate at room temperature and be miniaturized, unlike IBM's current quantum technology [3]. - QCi's EmuCore quantum computer is designed for training AI models, offering faster data processing and lower energy consumption compared to traditional computers, although it reported only $384,000 in revenue for Q3 against operating costs of $10.5 million [5]. - The company raised $750 million through an equity offering in October to support its operations [5]. IBM - IBM's AI business generated $9.5 billion in Q3, contributing to total revenue of $16.3 billion, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [6][7]. - The company is developing its Nighthawk quantum processor, expected to achieve quantum advantage next year, which would enhance its AI capabilities significantly [8][9]. - IBM reported a net income of $1.7 billion in Q3 and has a dividend yield of over 2%, showcasing its profitability and commitment to returning value to shareholders [9][10]. Investment Comparison - IBM's strong sales and advancements in quantum computing position it as a more attractive investment compared to QCi, which has high operating costs and limited sales [13][14]. - QCi's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio has been significantly higher than IBM's, indicating that QCi's shares are overvalued relative to its sales performance [11][13]. - IBM's consistent dividend payments and established revenue streams make it a superior investment choice in the AI sector [14].

Industry Overview & Investment - Quantum computing is attracting billions of dollars in investment, potentially leading to a revolution in computing larger than generative AI [1] - Potential investors are showing increasing interest in the implications of quantum computing, with political and state-level economic support driving its development [2] Key Players & Technology - IBM is a leading company in quantum computing, having developed foundational aspects of quantum information science since 1970 [2] - Quantum computing relies on qubits, which can hold multiple values simultaneously, unlike classical computing's bits that are either zero or one [5] - Error mitigation is currently used to address errors in quantum computers, but this approach is expected to evolve [6] IBM's Developments & Strategy - IBM made quantum computing available on the cloud in 2016, marking a pivotal moment for the field [7] - IBM aims to achieve quantum advantage, where quantum computers outperform classical computers in speed, cost, or accuracy, and expects to see examples of this soon [7] - IBM is targeting a significant quantum computing payoff by 2029, with a roadmap detailing their progress [22][23] Applications & Use Cases - Quantum computing has potential applications in healthcare, such as transforming drug discovery and understanding biological systems [3][16][17] - Financial markets are another target for quantum computing, with applications in portfolio optimization, risk management, and cybersecurity [17][18][19][20] - Quantum computing could benefit agriculture through improved fertilizer production and climate change mitigation [21] Competition & Metrics - IonQ claims its machines are 36 quadrillion (36 * 10^15) times more powerful than competitors' and aims for a fully fault-tolerant 2 million qubit system with costs under $30 million [26][27] - Different companies use various metrics to measure quantum computing progress, including total qubits (IBM), algorithmic qubits (IonQ), and quantum volume (Continuum) [29][30]