Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump is attempting to reduce tensions with China after Beijing's firm response to his 100% tariff threat, indicating that China "will not back down" [4] - Economists show slight optimism regarding the U.S. economy, but job growth expectations have declined according to an NABE survey [5] Group 2: Rare Earths and Critical Minerals - China has tightened its export controls on rare earths, prompting the U.S. government to intensify efforts to secure supplies and reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains [5] - The Pentagon plans to acquire up to $1 billion worth of critical minerals essential for defense systems and advanced technologies, with recent solicitations including $500 million for cobalt and $245 million for antimony [6] - Australia is considering mandated floor prices for critical minerals and investing in new rare earth projects as part of a trade deal with the U.S., discussing a $777 million strategic reserve for critical minerals [8] Group 3: Automotive Industry Developments - General Motors (GM) is set to benefit from its efforts since 2021 to secure domestic rare earth magnet supply, potentially becoming the only U.S. automaker with significant direct supply from multiple factories [7] - GM has established multi-year supply agreements with MP Materials and Noveon Magnetics, although the extent of U.S. production meeting GM's rare earth magnet demand remains unclear [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Underweight (UW) rating on Lynas Rare Earths and a Neutral (N) rating on MP Materials [2][9]. Core Insights - The rare earths industry is facing significant supply chain disruptions due to China's export restrictions on key heavies like Terbium and Dysprosium, which are critical for electric vehicles and advanced technologies [9]. - Despite potential trade negotiations between the US and China, the damage to the supply chain may be lasting, prompting a shift towards developing non-Chinese sources of rare earths [9]. - The oil sector is expected to see strong refining margins, with a projected surplus of 2.6 million barrels per day (mbd) in Q4 2025, leading to a price floor for Brent crude between $55-60 and WTI between $50-55 [3][15]. Rare Earths Sector Summary - China controls approximately 70% of rare earth production, 85% of processing capacity, and 99% of heavies production, which has led to a scramble for alternative sources among automakers [9]. - Lynas Rare Earths and MP Materials are identified as key beneficiaries of the push for ex-China supply, with Lynas having over 85% exposure to NdPr, which is not currently restricted [9]. - The report expresses caution regarding the sustainability of the current rally in rare earth prices and the timing of commercial production volumes from alternative sources [9]. Oil Sector Summary - The report highlights five conditions necessary for crude prices to decline, with only two expected to materialize: a surge in OECD inventories and a flattening crude curve [15]. - Refining margins are anticipated to remain strong due to limited new capacity coming online, influenced by China's export restrictions and closures of US/EU plants [3][15]. - The report suggests that product stocks are expected to build, but low starting levels should support prices and margins [15].