2026年开年，房地产市场出现了一些变化。二手房挂牌量在重点城市有所下降，北京从2025年9月的14万多套减到2026年1月的12万多套，上海挂牌量连续四 个月回落，到1月底大约33万套。 克而瑞数据表明，2025年30个重点城市二手房成交面积达到2.14亿平方米，这是近五年最高值，一线城市成交反弹明显，上海和深圳分别涨7%和4%。 全国商品房成交面积2025年约8.9亿平方米，回落到2009年水平，住宅部分7.4亿平方米，像2007年那样。 北京新政后，周末楼盘到访和二手房带看增加，网签日均702套，涨37%。二线城市新房成交领先，如成都，但整体新房均价平，一线微涨2%。 三四线库存大，去化周期长。剔除无效库存，商品房有效库存约50亿平方米，年销售面积五六倍，算健康。 2025到2026年，新开工、销售面积预测，用工具去库存：收储2亿平方米，城中村改造0.8亿平方米，专项债回收土地8.5亿平方米。 到2026年底，广义库存降到9.6亿平方米，去化周期13.7个月，降15个月；超广义14.1亿平方米，周期20.2个月，降24个月。 开发商和二手业主降价避险，房价跌。地产政策宽松接近底，限购只剩京沪深大限制，首 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant changes in land acquisition behavior of urban investment companies (城投公司) in China, highlighting a sharp decline in their land purchases and the reasons behind this shift. Group 1: Changes in Land Acquisition - Urban investment companies have started to reduce their land acquisition activities after a period of aggressive purchasing, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities [3][5]. - In 2024, the land acquisition share of urban investment companies in 30 key cities reached a peak of 64%, but this has drastically changed in the first quarter, with their total land acquisition area dropping to under 20 million square meters, representing a significant decline to 50% [6][7]. - Major cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou have seen urban investment companies retreat from land auctions, with Shenzhen's urban investment companies not acquiring any land in recent sales [11][12]. Group 2: Regional Variations - Jiangsu province has seen the highest land acquisition amounts by urban investment companies, with 10 out of the top 12 cities for land acquisition located there [17]. - In contrast, urban investment companies in Sichuan experienced a drop in land acquisition from over 100 billion yuan last year to only 8.2 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, a decrease of over 30% [27][28]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - Urban investment companies face low operational efficiency, with the opening rate of acquired projects dropping from 48.9% in 2021 to just 8.5% in 2024, indicating a backlog of over 4,200 undeveloped plots totaling approximately 36 million square meters [30][33]. - The low opening and sales rates of urban investment companies, which were only 3.54% in 2023, contrast sharply with state-owned enterprises and private companies that maintain rates above 60% [34][35]. Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Urban investment companies are exploring new strategies to address their challenges, including utilizing special bonds for land acquisition and focusing on the development of rental housing [49][50]. - Some regions are implementing policies to limit land acquisition by urban investment companies, emphasizing the need for timely project development [62]. - The "Jiangsu model" is being adopted, where urban investment companies acquire second-hand homes for rental purposes, aiming to stimulate the housing market and improve local government funding efficiency [63][65]. Group 5: Future Directions - Urban investment companies have played a crucial role in urban development but must now adapt to changing demands and focus on enhancing existing stock rather than merely acquiring new land [69][72]. - The shift towards creating products that meet market needs and improving urban quality is essential for their long-term survival [73].

Group 1 - The recent financial policy changes include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.25 percentage point decrease in personal housing provident fund loan rates, with the five-year loan interest rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [2] - The current financial policies are viewed as insufficient to stimulate the real estate market recovery, described as merely a "light rain" or "eye drops" that do not address the underlying issues [2] - National real estate sales data for the first four months of the year shows a continued decline, indicating a lack of significant market improvement [3] Group 2 - The anticipated "small spring" in the real estate market has not materialized, with minimal activity observed in cities like Zhengzhou, where price reductions are only effective when they fall below 10,000 yuan [4] - There is a disconnect between public perception and market reports, as claims of "sold out" properties are met with skepticism from potential buyers [4] - The real estate market is characterized by a stark contrast, with some areas thriving while others struggle, leading to doubts about the viability of certain property types [5] Group 3 - The key issue in the current real estate market is not a lack of demand, but rather buyer hesitation due to fears of declining property values post-purchase [8] - The belief that real estate investment is a guaranteed profit has diminished, leading to a crisis of confidence among potential buyers [10] - The notion that younger generations are disinterested in traditional milestones like marriage and homeownership is challenged, suggesting that these trends are more about timing than a fundamental shift in values [11][12] Group 4 - The current market conditions necessitate inventory reduction, which can only be achieved through price cuts, despite resistance from developers and property owners [13][14] - Developers and homeowners are compelled to lower prices to avoid losses, indicating a broader trend of forced price adjustments in the market [14] - There is a belief that the real estate market, including Zhengzhou, will eventually recover, as historical patterns suggest a potential reversal of current trends [15]