最近这房地产市场真是风云变幻得让人捉摸不透啊。记得十年前，房子那可是人人抢着要的香饽饽，谁手里有套房简直就像捧了个金饭碗。可如今呢，情 况完全掉了个个儿——房子居然卖不动了。我有个老朋友，在房产销售这行干了整整9年，算是经验丰富的老兵了。 前几天跟她聊天，她愁眉苦脸地跟我说，自己已经连续4个月没签成一单了，这么长的空白期在她职业生涯里还是头一遭。她说现在这行情真是难得让人 心慌，公司领导天天在耳边念叨，不管用什么法子，把房子卖出去才是硬道理，得绞尽脑汁想办法。 她们团队里曾经业绩最拔尖的那个姑娘，过去每月轻轻松松就能成交两三套，这两个月居然也一套没卖出去。最近公司内部悄悄流传一种说法，说房价说 不定会跌回2013年的水平，而且房地产行业可能马上就要迎来一波"抛售潮"。更有人预言，2026年的房价走势可能会跌得超乎大家的想象。这些话听着让 人心里直打鼓，可究竟有几分可信呢？ 01 经济专家管清友：房价将会跌回2013年！ 回头看看市场现状，房子卖不动、价格一降再降却依然无人问津，这场景放在过去简直无法想象。2010年到2018年那段时间，楼市火爆得像个永不降温的 大熔炉。无论是城市居民还是农村朋友，大家都在疯狂 ...

临潼新区，在前几年西安楼市火爆时期，曾经是郊区板块的热点之一。 如今，与其它郊区板块类似，临潼新区楼市也是大幅降温。 同时，这个板块内一些曾经的知名项目，则由于债务纠纷等，房源被摆上法拍平台。 这其中，就包括蓝岛国际社区。 如今，蓝光长岛国际社区五期超千套房源，已经被摆上了阿里司法拍卖平台，在3月中旬将会被拍卖。 01 1289套房源，2.59亿元起 阿里司法拍卖平台上近日发布了蓝光长岛国际社区五期超千套房源的司法拍卖预告信息，处置法院为陕西省咸阳市中级人民法院。 立丰的这块地之所以比较便宜，是因为当时的土地出让文件中规定宗地内需建设并自持5万平米的集中商业综合体。 立丰地产是西安本土老牌房企，以引入百盛，以及开发了东二环的立丰国际而知名，因此当立丰拿下秦汉大道这宗包含有大量商业地块的土地之后，大家 期待的是立丰能够在此开发建设一座商业综合体。 此次司法拍卖，分为4个标的物进行拍卖，其中： 此次法拍共计涉及到蓝光长岛国际社区五期7栋楼，共计1289套，评估价合计为30498.52万元，起拍价合计为25923.72万元，相当于是按照评估价的8.5折 进行起拍，拍卖时间为2026年3月16日上午10时。 蓝光长岛 ...

Summary of China Property Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** industry, highlighting the challenges faced in the real estate market as of December 2025 and expectations for 2026. Key Points Home Sales and Market Performance - Home sales in December 2025 experienced a milder year-on-year (y-y) decline, with a **24% drop in value** and a **16% drop in volume**, compared to **25% and 17% declines in November** respectively. This brought the full-year 2025 decline to **12.6% in value** and **8.7% in volume** [2][3] - The **NBS 70-city home price index** continued to decline, with a **0.4% month-on-month (m-m)** drop in primary markets and **0.7% m-m** in secondary markets in December [2] Construction Activity - Construction activity remained sluggish, with **completions down 18% y-y** in December, widening the full-year decline to **18.1%**. New starts fell **19% y-y** in December, slightly narrowing the full-year decline to **20% y-y** [3] - Real estate investment (REI) saw a significant decline of **36% y-y** in December, dragging the full-year decline to **17% y-y**. High inventory levels and cautious developer sentiment are expected to keep construction activity and REI lackluster in 2026 [3] Market Sentiment and Policy Outlook - The physical market is expected to take longer to stabilize, with a continued downtrend anticipated into 2026, albeit at a softer pace. A high single-digit percentage drop in secondary home prices is expected [4] - The outlook for meaningful nationwide housing policy remains muted, with fragile resident sentiment contributing to ongoing challenges in the market [4] Investment Opportunities - There is expected to be a divergence in share prices between the overall industry and quality names with credible self-help stories in 2026. Companies such as **CR Land** and **Seazen A** are favored for their robust mall operations and potential benefits from policy initiatives aimed at boosting consumption [5] - **C&D** and **COLI** are identified as residential market consolidators, with optimized land banks supporting margin and earnings recovery [5] Financial Metrics - Total sales value for 2025 was **Rmb 8,394 billion**, down **12.6%** from 2024. Residential sales value was **Rmb 7,334 billion**, down **13.0%** [10] - Total real estate investment for 2025 was **Rmb 8,279 billion**, down **17.2%** from 2024 [10] Additional Insights - The analysis indicates that home prices in tier 1 and select tier 2 cities could stabilize in the second half of 2027 if the macro environment remains resilient [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory digestion and market sentiment as key indicators for future performance in the property sector [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property industry, highlighting both challenges and potential investment opportunities.

Summary of China Property Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Property - **Date**: December 15, 2025 - **Key Findings**: The property market in China is experiencing significant challenges, with home sales and construction activity declining faster than anticipated. The outlook for 2026 remains bleak, with expectations of prolonged downtrends in the physical market. Key Points Home Sales and Market Sentiment - Home sales in November saw a year-on-year decline of **-25%** in value and **-17%** in volume, worsening from October's declines of **-24%** and **-19%** respectively, leading to an **11M25** decline of **-11.1%** in value and **-7.8%** in volume [2][3] - The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a further drop in home prices, with primary markets down **0.4%** month-on-month and secondary markets down **0.7%** in November [2] Construction Activity - Construction completions fell by **26%** year-on-year in November, slightly improving from a **28%** decline in October, with an **11M25** decline of **-18.0%** [3] - New construction starts decreased by **28%** year-on-year in November, compared to a **30%** decline in October, leading to an **11M25** decline of **-21%** [3] - Real estate investment (REI) saw a significant decline of **-30%** year-on-year in November, worsening from **-23%** in October, with an **11M25** decline of **-15.9%** [3] Market Outlook - The physical market is expected to take longer to stabilize, with predictions of a high single-digit percentage decline in primary sales volume and mid-teens percentage declines in new starts, completions, and REI in 2026 [4] - Inventory levels remain high, and the analysis suggests that home prices in tier-1 and major tier-2 cities may stabilize in the second half of 2027 if the macroeconomic environment remains stable [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on quality companies with credible self-help stories, such as **CR Land** and **Seazen A**, which are expected to generate positive alpha despite the negative industry beta in 2026 [5] - **C&D** and **COLI** are highlighted as consolidators in the residential market, with optimized land banks supporting margin and earnings recovery [5] Data Summary - **Total sales value** in November was **Rmb 611 billion**, down **25.1%** year-on-year [6] - **Residential sales value** was **Rmb 532 billion**, down **17.3%** year-on-year [6] - **Total RE investment** was **Rmb 503 billion**, down **30.3%** year-on-year [6] - **Total GFA started** was **44 million sqm**, down **27.6%** year-on-year [6] - **Total GFA completion** was **46 million sqm**, down **25.5%** year-on-year [6] Conclusion The China property market is facing significant headwinds, with declining sales, construction activity, and investment. The outlook for 2026 remains challenging, but there are potential investment opportunities in quality companies that can navigate the current environment effectively.

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is facing significant challenges due to a combination of declining property prices, employment pressures, and policy changes, leading to liquidity issues for families with multiple properties and increased holding costs [1] Group 1: Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market is experiencing an oversupply, with transaction cycles extending beyond three months due to high inventory levels, such as 200,000 units in Suzhou [3] - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have seen a surge in second-hand listings, with some cities' total listings nearing the sum of the past five years, resulting in intense price competition among sellers [3] - Homeowners are facing psychological stress from price discrepancies, as illustrated by a case where a seller had to reduce the price by 300,000 yuan to sell a property after a year on the market [3] Group 2: New Housing Market Impact - The new housing market is further squeezing the second-hand market, as buyers prefer new homes due to better price and quality, leading to stagnant demand for older properties [5] - The expansion of property tax trials to 15 cities by the end of 2024 raises concerns for families with multiple properties, potentially increasing annual holding costs significantly [5] - Rising fixed costs such as property management fees are compounding the financial burden on homeowners, with average annual fees in major cities exceeding 5,000 yuan [5] Group 3: Rental Market Dynamics - Rental yields are insufficient to cover mortgage payments, with national rental returns dropping below 2%, which is lower than mortgage rates [7] - The rental market is shifting, with an increase in affordable housing and brand-name rental apartments capturing market share, leading to longer vacancy periods for individual landlords [9] - Regulatory measures are increasing landlords' responsibilities, further constraining their profit margins, as seen in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [9] Group 4: Asset Optimization Strategies - In response to liquidity crises, families are optimizing asset allocations by selling off underperforming properties and retaining those in prime locations [11] - Local governments are exploring solutions to reduce vacancy rates, such as property management services and expedited transaction processes [11] - There is a psychological shift among property owners, moving away from speculative buying to a focus on long-term rental stability and diversified investments [12]

Core Viewpoint - A major state-owned developer has significantly reduced prices across multiple projects in Nanjing, with some properties reaching near record lows, indicating a desperate attempt to boost sales amid prolonged inventory issues and financial pressures [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Reductions - In the Xianlin Lake area, project prices have dropped to 24,000 yuan per square meter, causing dissatisfaction among existing homeowners [1]. - In the core area of Jiangbei, prices have fallen to 23,000 yuan per square meter, nearly halving from the average price of 35,000 yuan per square meter at the time of the first launch in 2022 [1]. - The main housing sources in Jiangning are priced between 17,000 to 20,000 yuan per square meter, with minimal profit margins remaining, described as "ground-level sales" [1]. Group 2: Sales Performance - The developer, representing a group of top 100 real estate companies, has experienced a continuous decline in sales for three consecutive years, with an average net profit of 420 million yuan last year, down 76.8% year-on-year [3]. - The average net profit margin for top 100 real estate companies is projected to be 1.1% in 2024, indicating a sustained decline in profitability [6]. Group 3: Market Strategy Shift - The developer is shifting focus towards first-tier cities, as evidenced by a 3.6 percentage point increase in sales contribution from these areas, reflecting a strategic pivot to secure cash flow rather than gamble on future prospects in lower-tier cities [6]. - There are indications that the developer may be withdrawing from the Nanjing market, as evidenced by a significant reduction in land acquisition activities compared to previous years [9][11]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The Nanjing real estate market is showing signs of divergence, with core areas stabilizing while suburban regions face pressure, leading to price adjustments by developers to enhance competitiveness [19].