Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is undergoing significant changes, with predictions that certain types of housing may become "slums" within the next decade due to aging and depreciation [1][9]. Group 1: Types of Housing at Risk - Approximately 12.7% of existing residential properties are accelerating in aging and depreciation, potentially leading to low-value residential areas by 2035 [1]. - Three main categories of housing are identified as at risk of becoming slums: oversized old residential units, high-density residential communities in suburban areas with inadequate amenities, and low-quality, single-function housing in urban villages [1][9]. Group 2: Oversized Old Residential Units - Oversized residential units, built between 1990 and 2005, typically exceed 180 square meters and are losing market competitiveness due to changing family structures [3]. - The average family size in China is projected to decrease to 2.58 by 2024, leading to a reduced demand for larger living spaces [3]. - Data from Beike Research Institute indicates that the listing volume of old oversized residential units in first-tier cities increased by 38.7% in 2024, while transaction volume only rose by 7.2%, with prices 17-24% lower than new smaller units in the same area [3]. Group 3: High-Density Suburban Residential Communities - Many high-density residential projects in suburban areas are built far from city centers, often lacking essential infrastructure and public services [5]. - A report from the Ministry of Housing indicates that 63.7% of new residential communities in suburban areas face issues with infrastructure and public service lag, resulting in an average commuting time of 68 minutes [5]. - Properties in these areas are experiencing significant depreciation, with some suburban residential communities seeing a 7% drop in second-hand housing prices from 2015 to 2024, while overall city prices increased by 26.3% [5]. Group 4: Low-Quality Urban Village Housing - Urban village redevelopment projects often prioritize economic benefits over sustainable development, leading to poorly designed units and lack of community space [7]. - Recommendations for buyers include prioritizing practical living needs, ensuring housing costs do not exceed seven times the annual family income, and focusing on location and amenities for long-term value [7]. Group 5: Future Housing Market Trends - The housing market in China is transitioning from an incremental phase to a stock phase, with quality differentiation becoming the main theme [9]. - By 2035, homeownership rates may decline, and the rental market is expected to grow, with high-quality, adaptable housing performing well, while lower-quality housing faces depreciation risks [9].