talk more about the data today and the market. Joining us today is Ed Yardenni, president of Yardeni Research, who joins us here at Post9. Happy holidays, Ed.Good to see you. Can you bundle all this data into a couple of phrases. >> Yeah, I think the economy in terms of uh final demand, GDP growth is still quite good.Labor market is funky with a lot of uh different uh things going on in that marketplace. uh but the conclusion is productivity must be extremely strong and uh that's good. I mean that actually ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates an upgrade in GDP growth forecasts for China, suggesting a positive outlook for the region [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Goldman Sachs' forecasts for China's real GDP growth are now significantly above consensus for 2025 and 2026, driven by a manufacturing push [4][5]. - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has shown a slight increase, indicating a marginal improvement in financial conditions globally [9][30]. - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for China stands at +5.8% for September, reflecting strong economic activity [54]. Summary by Sections GDP Forecast Changes - The report details changes in GDP forecasts across various regions, with notable increases for Taiwan (+1.9 percentage points) and Turkey (+1.2 percentage points) [6][12][104]. - The global GDP forecast has been adjusted upwards, reflecting a more optimistic economic outlook [103][104]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI rose by +0.5 basis points over the week, indicating a slight easing of financial conditions [9][30]. - The report provides insights into the implications of financial conditions on real GDP growth, suggesting a positive correlation [45][46]. Current Activity Indicators - The CAI for developed markets is reported at +1.5% for October, while emerging markets show a stronger performance at +4.5% [54][56]. - The CAI for the US is +2.1%, indicating robust economic activity [54]. Wage and Price Inflation - Wage trackers indicate varying trends across different countries, with the US showing a composition-adjusted increase in wage growth [22][73]. - Inflation measures, including trimmed core inflation, are discussed, with implications for future monetary policy [68][69]. Fiscal Policy Impacts - The report analyzes the effects of fiscal policy on real GDP growth, with specific attention to the US and Euro Area [84][89]. - It highlights the expected fiscal impulses over the next four quarters, indicating potential growth drivers [87][88].

Summary of Deutsche Bank Research Institute Report on Long-Term Investing Industry Overview - The report focuses on long-term investing strategies and asset class performance across various macroeconomic environments, drawing on data from 56 economies over more than 200 years [2][6][11]. Key Findings Historical Performance of Asset Classes - Median global inflation-adjusted returns in USD terms show: - Equities: 4.9% p.a. - 60/40 Portfolio: 4.2% - Government Bonds: 2.6% - Bills: 1.9% - Gold: 0.4% - Cash: -2.0% [6][14]. - Gold has underperformed compared to financial assets historically, but in the 21st century, it has outperformed with a return of 7.45% p.a. [6][16]. - The best-performing equity markets over the last century were in Sweden (7.5% p.a.) and the US (7.2% p.a.), while Italy had the worst performance for equities (2.5% p.a.) and bonds (-1.1%) [6][19]. Economic Growth and Returns - Nominal GDP growth is a key driver of asset-class returns, averaging 5.7% annually since 1900 [6][19]. - Developed markets (DM) have seen a decline in nominal GDP growth, with projections of around 4% over the next five years, which is below historical averages [6][32]. - Real GDP growth in developed markets is at its lowest level in a century, reinforcing the link between economic growth and investment returns [6][41]. Investment Risks and Probabilities - The probability of equities underperforming cash over 25 years is only 0.8%, but this rises to 6.3% over 10 years and 13.6% over five years [10]. - For government bonds, the probability of underperforming inflation is around 25% across various time frames [10]. - A 60/40 portfolio has historically offered the lowest probability of nominal losses, with just a 0.1% chance of negative returns over 25 years [10]. Demographic Trends - Both developed and emerging markets are experiencing slow population growth, with 32 economies projected to see a decline in their working-age population by 2050 [9][54]. - Countries with declining working-age populations may struggle to sustain real GDP growth, impacting future investment returns [59][60]. Inflation and Returns - Historical data indicates that equities serve as an effective hedge against inflation, with nominal equity returns rising with inflation [50]. - However, real returns tend to decline slightly as inflation increases, suggesting that equities perform best in lower-inflation environments [50][52]. Currency Depreciation - Over the past century, only three economies (Switzerland, Singapore, and the Netherlands) have seen their currencies appreciate against the US dollar, while many have depreciated significantly [91][93]. - The US has been a significant relative winner in currency terms, influencing returns when measured in USD [97]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of starting valuations in predicting long-term performance, with low P/E portfolios outperforming high P/E portfolios historically [9][81]. - The relationship between equities and bonds has reverted to a positive correlation post-COVID, suggesting that both asset classes may move in tandem more often in the future [83][87]. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights for investors looking to navigate long-term investment strategies in a changing economic landscape.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Retail Sector - **Key Insights**: The retail sales data indicates a mixed performance, with a notable increase in goods spending but a decline in services spending, particularly in the restaurant sector [6][7][8]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Consumer Spending Trends**: - Retail sales increased by 0.5% month-over-month (MoM) in July, with June's figure revised up from 0.6% to 0.9% [6]. - Auto sales rebounded by 1.6% MoM, indicating recovery from a previous dip [6]. - The control group, which excludes volatile items, also saw a 0.5% MoM increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.4% [6]. 2. **Sector Performance**: - Non-store retailers (primarily online sales) showed significant strength, with sales advancing between 0.74% and 0.90% over the last three months [6]. - Conversely, restaurant spending, the only tracked services category, fell by 0.4% after a previous increase of 0.6% [6]. 3. **Outlook on Consumer Spending**: - Despite the nominal increase in goods spending, a slower growth in overall consumer spending is anticipated for the remainder of the year [7]. - Three main reasons for this expectation: - The decline in services spending, which constitutes a larger share of consumer expenditure [8]. - The volatility in goods spending due to tariff front-loading, leading to earlier stronger spending, a spring dip, and a recent recovery [8]. - Downward revisions in job growth have resulted in weaker labor income growth, which, combined with a low savings rate, suggests that consumer spending will need to decelerate [8]. Additional Important Insights - **Economic Implications**: The slowdown in consumer spending is expected to contribute to below-potential real GDP growth for the year [7]. - **Market Volatility**: The strength in online sales is noted to be particularly volatile and challenging to seasonally adjust, indicating potential risks in interpreting these trends [8]. This summary encapsulates the key findings and insights from the conference call, focusing on the retail sector's performance and the implications for consumer spending and economic growth.