Recession Probability

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CNBC Fed Survey: Majority believes the tax bill will significantly increase the deficit
CNBC Television· 2025-06-17 15:43
Welcome back. Fed meetings getting underway today and some growing optimism perhaps among CNBC's Fed survey participants about the outlook for markets. Steve Leeman has the details for us.Steve. Yeah, David. A little bit brighter when it comes to the outlook for stocks with respondence to the CBC Fed survey uh lowering their recession probability and seeing more of a bounce back in the economy uh and stocks in 2026.Uh year end, we're looking at 6133. That's just up one and a half. But things look better for ...
高盛:关税影响略有减弱
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-15 16:03
12 June 2025 | 9:22AM EDT US Daily: A Slightly Smaller Tariff Effect (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com G ...
高盛:中美贸易协议后上调美国的增长预测并降低衰退概率
Goldman Sachs· 2025-05-13 05:39
12 May 2025 | 4:04PM EDT US Daily: Raising Our Growth Forecast and Lowering Our Recession Odds in the Wake of a US-China Trade Deal (Hatzius / Mericle / Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.co ...
BARCLAYS:全球投资组合经理文摘 -风云变幻
2025-04-17 03:21
Cross Asset Research 13 April 2025 Global Portfolio Manager's Digest Whirlwind We provide context and perspective on research across regions and asset classes, this week highlighting our assessment of implied recession probabilities across asset classes; potential tariff impacts on China's economy & CNY; and the current state of the US energy trade. This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports ...