Safety is boring—but boring can be the smartest play when markets are stretched thin. With the S&P 500 trading near record highs and the Federal Reserve cutting rates, investors should reconsider the assumption that this cycle will play out like the last. During COVID-19, rate cuts were purely stimulative, aimed at preventing deflation. Today, with inflation still hovering around 3%, the dynamics are very different. Chewy TodayCHWYChewy$40.19 +0.25 (+0.63%) 52-Week Range$26.28▼$48.62P/E Ratio114.69Price Ta ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors seeking attractive yields and recession-resilient businesses should consider Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble as strong options due to their historical performance and current valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Dividend Yields and Comparisons - The average dividend yield for S&P 500 stocks is 1.2%, while consumer staples companies average 2.5%. Coca-Cola offers a yield of over 3%, and Procter & Gamble's yield is approximately 2.8% [2][8]. - Both companies are classified as Dividend Kings, having consistently increased their dividends for over 50 years, even during recessions [7]. Group 2: Business Resilience - The consumer staples sector is considered recession-resistant as it includes businesses selling essential items, which consumers continue to purchase regardless of economic conditions [3][5]. - Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble are among the largest publicly traded consumer staples companies, ranking No. 3 and No. 4 globally [5]. Group 3: Investment Valuation - Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble are currently trading at attractive valuations, with price-to-sales, price-to-earnings, and price-to-book ratios below their five-year averages [9]. - Although neither stock is extremely cheap, their reasonable pricing is considered a good opportunity for investors, as these companies rarely go on sale [9]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategy - Warren Buffett's investment philosophy emphasizes buying good businesses at reasonable prices and holding them for long-term growth, which applies to both Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble [10][11]. - Adopting a long-term investment approach with these companies may yield favorable outcomes, as current valuations could be seen as bargains in hindsight [11].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns about a potential recession are rising, but certain energy companies, specifically Enbridge and Brookfield Renewable, have resilient business models that can withstand economic downturns [1][12]. Group 1: Enbridge - Enbridge operates one of North America's largest energy infrastructure businesses, with a low-risk model supported by cost-of-service agreements and long-term contracts that backstop 98% of its cash flows [4][6]. - The company has achieved its annual financial guidance for 19 consecutive years, including during two major recessions [4]. - Enbridge pays out 60% to 70% of its stable cash flow as dividends, currently yielding 5.6%, providing a solid return for investors [5]. - The company has a significant backlog of growth capital projects expected to come online through the end of the decade, anticipating a 3% compound annual growth rate in cash flow per share through next year, accelerating to about 5% thereafter [6]. Group 2: Brookfield Renewable - Brookfield Renewable is one of the largest renewable energy producers globally, with 90% of its electricity sold under long-term, fixed-rate power purchase agreements, which are indexed to inflation for about 70% of its revenue [8]. - The company expects its existing power portfolio to deliver 4% to 7% growth in annual funds from operations (FFO) per share through the end of the decade, driven by inflation escalations and margin enhancements [9]. - Brookfield has a vast pipeline of renewable energy projects, including 10.5 gigawatts for Microsoft, which is expected to add 4% to 6% to its FFO per share annually as they come online [9][10]. - The company has financial flexibility for acquisitions, recently agreeing to invest up to $1 billion in Isagen, which will add 2% to its FFO per share next year [10]. - Overall, Brookfield anticipates more than 10% annual FFO-per-share growth for the foreseeable future, with expected dividend increases of 5% to 9% each year [11].

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment and trade policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, have positioned Dollar General as a resilient investment opportunity amidst broader market declines [1][12]. Company Performance - Dollar General has shown a significant stock performance increase, gaining 4.7% following the announcement of global tariffs, contrasting with the overall market decline [4]. - The company reported same-store sales growth of 1.4% for 2024 and projects a range of 1.2% to 2.2% for 2025, indicating ongoing demand despite margin pressures [11]. Market Positioning - Dollar General's sales are predominantly from consumables, which account for 82% of its sales in 2024, making it less exposed to tariffs compared to competitors like Dollar Tree [5][6]. - The company has a historical track record of outperforming during recessions, with same-store sales growth of 9% in 2008 and 9.5% in 2009 during the financial crisis [8]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a "Back to Basics" strategy to streamline operations, including closing temporary storage facilities and enhancing store operations to reduce out-of-stock situations [10]. - Dollar General is investing in store remodels while continuing to open new locations, aiming to improve customer experience and operational efficiency [10]. Financial Metrics - The stock is currently priced at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 and offers a dividend yield of 2.6%, making it an attractive option for investors [12].

Core Viewpoint - Chewy has demonstrated strong performance with a stock price increase of over 120% in the past year, driven by revenue growth and improved gross margins [1][4]. Revenue Growth - Chewy's revenue for fiscal Q4 2024 reached $3.25 billion, a nearly 15% year-over-year increase, surpassing the company's forecast [4]. - The company experienced a significant improvement in sales growth, with Q4 growth being notably higher than the 3% and 5% growth in previous quarters [4]. - Autoship sales increased by over 21% year-over-year to $2.6 billion, accounting for 80.6% of total revenue [5]. - Net sales per active customer rose by 4% to $578, and Chewy added 400,000 active customers in fiscal 2024 [5]. Gross Margin and Profitability - Gross margin increased by 30 basis points to 28.5%, attributed to a shift towards higher-gross-margin businesses [6]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) jumped 56% to $0.28, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 44% year-over-year to $124.5 million [7]. - Free cash flow was reported at $452.5 million, with the company buying back $942.8 million in stock during the year [7]. Future Guidance - For fiscal Q1, Chewy forecasts revenue growth of 6% to 7%, estimating revenue between $3.06 billion and $3.09 billion [8]. - The company anticipates full-year revenue growth of 6% to 7%, projecting total revenue between $12.3 billion and $12.45 billion [9]. - Chewy's revenue growth for fiscal 2024 was 6.4%, which included a 53rd week; without this, growth would have been around 4.4% [9]. Market Position and Valuation - Chewy is positioned as a defensive stock, benefiting from stable pet ownership and a recession-resistant business model [10][12]. - The stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 27, which is competitive among recession-resistant retailers [13]. - Chewy has a price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7, indicating it may be undervalued compared to its expected earnings growth [13]. Investment Appeal - Despite significant price appreciation, Chewy remains an attractive investment due to its strong growth potential and defensive qualities in an uncertain market [15].