Industry Overview - The U.S. cannabis sector is evolving in early 2026, presenting both risks and opportunities for investors [1] - Regulatory uncertainty has shifted focus towards efficiency, balance sheet repair, and selective growth among operators [1][2] - Potential federal reforms could significantly reshape industry valuations, prompting investors to be more selective [1][2] Investment Focus - Traders are prioritizing companies with established market positions, improving cash flow, and scalable infrastructure [2] - Multi-state operators are expected to benefit from future regulatory changes, including federal tax treatment and banking access [2] Market Volatility - The cannabis market remains volatile, necessitating disciplined risk management [3] - Many stocks are trading below previous highs, creating opportunities for patient investors [3] - Weaker operators may face challenges if capital markets remain tight, emphasizing the importance of company selection [3] February 2026 Outlook - February 2026 is anticipated to be significant for the sector, influenced by earnings updates, regulatory news, and market sentiment [4] - Investors are looking for stocks that combine scale, brand strength, and improved financial discipline [4] Featured Companies AYR Wellness Inc. (AYRWF) - AYR Wellness is a vertically integrated operator with a growing national footprint, primarily in Florida and other states [6][8] - The company focuses on operational control across the supply chain, allowing adjustments based on market demand [9] - Recent restructuring efforts aim to strengthen liquidity and reduce financial strain, with a focus on cost control and cash flow trends [10][11] Cresco Labs Inc. (CRLBF) - Cresco Labs is a well-established multi-state operator with a strong presence in both medical and adult-use markets [12][14] - The company emphasizes brand consistency and consumer trust, with a dual approach of retail and wholesale operations [15] - Financially, Cresco generates high revenue totals, focusing on improving adjusted EBITDA and operating cash flow [16][17] Glass House Brands Inc. (GLASF) - Glass House Brands operates with a strong focus on California, utilizing large greenhouse facilities for cost-efficient production [18][20] - The company emphasizes operational efficiency and quality control through vertical integration [21] - Financial performance has been uneven due to market challenges, but increased production volumes and potential regulatory improvements could support future growth [22][23]

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Group 1: Biden Administration's Oil and Gas Strategy - The Biden administration finalized the 10th National Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing Programme for 2024-29, limiting new oil and gas licenses to three, the fewest in history [1] - Under Biden, crude oil production increased by 1.05% year-on-year, while dry natural gas production rose by 0.2% to 37.72 trillion cubic feet (tcf) [5] - The administration reversed various moratoriums and restrictions, allowing leasing and operations to proceed as intended by congressional statute [2] Group 2: Trump Administration's Oil and Gas Strategy - The Trump administration implemented reforms to encourage exploration and drive oil and gas production, resulting in a 55% increase in drilling permits in its first year [13] - Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) outlined an offshore lease plan with a total of 36 oil and gas licenses, including 30 auctions in the Gulf of Mexico over the next 15 years [8] - The Department of the Interior released a draft of the 11th National OCS Oil and Gas Leasing Programme for 2026-31, which includes 34 potential offshore lease sales [9] Group 3: Industry Sentiment and Regulatory Changes - The oil and gas sector has welcomed regulatory shifts under Trump, including the repeal of emissions standards and the absence of tariffs on crude oil and natural gas imports [14][16] - Industry sentiment is broadly positive due to the deregulation trend and the increase in licenses, despite challenges such as inflated costs squeezing profit margins [23] - The EPA has proposed significant regulatory changes, including extending deadlines for emissions standards, which the industry views as beneficial [26]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record Q2 net revenue of $218 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $8.4 million and a reported EPS loss of $0.02, reflecting a significant improvement in performance metrics [4][22]. - The net loss for the quarter was $43.5 million, a 49% improvement year-over-year compared to $85.3 million, with cash flow used in operations reduced to $8.5 million from $40.7 million last year [27][28]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cannabis revenue increased to $68 million, with international cannabis revenue growing 36% year-over-year and 51% sequentially to $20 million [9][22]. - Beverage revenue totaled $50 million, impacted by headwinds in the craft beer segment, while distribution revenue grew by 26% year-over-year to $85 million [11][23]. - Wellness revenue remained flat at $14.6 million, driven by innovation in product offerings [20][24]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Canadian adult-use cannabis sales channel net of excise tax grew to $46 million, with recreational cannabis growing 6% in the quarter [12][22]. - The international cannabis market, particularly in Europe, is seen as a significant growth opportunity, with expectations for continued expansion in Germany, the UK, and Poland [10][39]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its strong balance sheet and liquidity to capitalize on regulatory changes in the cannabis industry, particularly in the U.S. [5][29]. - The strategic focus includes enhancing operational efficiency in the beverage segment and expanding pharmacy reach in Germany through Tilray Pharma [11][18]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's trajectory for the second half of fiscal 2026, citing a diversified platform and improving fundamentals [21][29]. - The company is preparing for potential regulatory changes in the U.S. that could significantly impact the cannabis market, particularly with the rescheduling of cannabis [6][54]. Other Important Information - The company operates more than 40 brands in over 20 countries and is a leader in the cannabis market, with a strong position in both the Canadian and international markets [5][6]. - The company has a robust cash position of approximately $292 million, providing flexibility for strategic opportunities [5][28]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What can the industry do to improve the regulatory outcome regarding the intoxicating hemp ban? - Management is working with legislators to extend the deadline or modify regulations to allow for a regulated amount of milligrams to be sold nationally [30][31]. Question: Can you quantify how much supply was held back from the Canadian market? - Approximately $5 million worth of supply was held back to redeploy into higher-margin international markets [32]. Question: What drove the substantial increase in distribution sales? - The increase was driven by new distribution channels and competitive pricing, with a focus on high-margin SKUs [34][36]. Question: What are the expectations for growth within the Canadian market? - Management expects mid- to high single-digit growth in the Canadian market, supported by new product launches and strong demand [40][41]. Question: Can you provide more color on the CC Pharma business and its distribution reach? - The company aims to triple its distribution reach in Germany, leveraging its sales organization to sell more medical cannabis [44][46]. Question: What is the long-term outlook for the beverage business? - Management remains confident in the beverage business, emphasizing the importance of integration and the potential for future growth, particularly with cannabis-infused drinks [51][53].

Economic Outlook - The Heritage Foundation's chief economist predicts growth for the U.S. economy in 2026, citing favorable tax and regulatory reforms as key drivers [1][2][3] - The economist expresses optimism about the potential for a market rally if unemployment remains stable and economic stimulus is effective [4] Monetary Policy Risks - Concerns are raised regarding Federal Reserve policy, particularly if current chair Jerome Powell continues to make mistakes in managing interest rates and the balance sheet [5][6] - The selection of the next Fed chair is deemed crucial, with potential candidates favoring rate cuts in 2026, which could positively impact the economy [6][7] Housing Affordability - A study indicates that over 75% of homes in the U.S. are now unaffordable for typical households, defined as spending more than 30% of income on housing [10][12] - The current high home prices relative to median household income are highlighted as a significant barrier to affordability, regardless of interest rates [11][12] - The discussion includes the impact of illegal immigration on housing demand and supply, suggesting that reducing illegal immigration could alleviate some housing pressures [13][14]

Core Insights - Nasdaq raised a total of $46.65 billion from new listings in 2025, marking the highest capital raised since 2021 [1][5] - 22 companies transferred their corporate listings to Nasdaq in 2025, including Walmart, representing the largest exchange transfer in history with a total market value of $1.2 trillion [1][5] Capital Market Performance - 2025 was a significant year for public markets, with companies at various stages choosing Nasdaq for its global visibility and commitment to innovation and growth [2] - Nasdaq's European markets contributed to over half of all capital raised in Europe in 2025, including the public debut of Verisure, Europe's largest IPO since 2022 [5] Notable Listings - Major listings included Medline, which was the largest overall IPO and healthcare IPO of the year, raising over $6 billion, and CoreWeave, the largest AI IPO of the year [5] Listing Transfers - Since 2005, Nasdaq has attracted more than 500 listing transfers, representing over $4 trillion in market value [5] Strategic Initiatives - Nasdaq announced plans to launch Nasdaq Texas, a dual listing venue aimed at expanding services for companies in Texas and creating new growth opportunities for U.S. investors [5] - Nasdaq is actively involved in regulatory reform, hosting discussions with leaders from the public and private market ecosystem to address challenges and opportunities in the public market [5]

🇩🇪 UPDATE: Germany’s opposition party AfD calls for regulatory reform, saying Bitcoin deserves unique treatment outside the EU’s MiCA framework. https://t.co/Wvp8nywfDF ...

Core Insights - A new study indicates that South Korea's stringent competition regulations targeting U.S. tech firms could result in nearly $1 trillion in lost economic growth for both countries over the next decade, with U.S. companies potentially losing $525 billion and South Korean small businesses facing losses of approximately $469 billion [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Competere Foundation's research highlights that South Korea's regulatory environment is detrimental not only to U.S. tech firms but also to its own economy, particularly affecting small businesses [4][8]. - The report emphasizes that reduced foreign investment will disproportionately impact smaller Korean businesses, urging both nations to prioritize regulatory reform to enhance economic ties [8]. Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The aggressive enforcement actions by Korea's Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) are seen as unfairly limiting U.S. tech firms and discouraging foreign investment, which could lead to broader diplomatic and trade implications [2][6]. - Experts warn that the current regulatory approach may backfire, complicating trade negotiations and potentially leading to a more confrontational stance between the U.S. and South Korea [9][10]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The restrictive measures against U.S. companies may create opportunities for Chinese firms, which are less deterred by inconsistent enforcement of regulations, posing risks to U.S. economic interests and national security [12].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reported fiscal 2025 second-quarter earnings with $16.8 billion in revenue, a 12% year-over-year increase, and earnings per share of $2.13, alongside an 18.2% return on tangible common equity [1] - The firm’s Wealth and Investment Management client assets reached $8.2 trillion, with net new assets of $59 billion and record fee-based flows of $43 billion [1][5] - The quarterly dividend was increased to $1 per share, reflecting strong financial performance [1] Capital Deployment and Regulatory Environment - The firm ended the quarter with a 15% CET1 ratio, exceeding regulatory requirements by over 200 basis points, and reported a $54 billion sequential increase in total spot assets [3] - Management anticipates further regulatory reforms that will enhance capital allocation capabilities, supported by strong stress test results [3][4] - Ample surplus capital and increased regulatory flexibility provide a competitive edge for expanding lending and enhancing shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks [4] Wealth Management Performance - Wealth Management pretax profits reached a record $2.2 billion with a pretax margin of 28.3%, driven by strong fee-based advisory flows [5] - Net new asset growth is increasingly supported by cross-channel integration, including adviser-led, Workplace, and self-directed flows [5][6] - The firm is experiencing growth in Workplace origination, exceeding previous annual expectations [6] Global Markets and Revenue Generation - Equities revenues reached $3.7 billion, with record performance in EMEA and strong growth in Asia, while Fixed Income revenue surpassed $2 billion for multiple consecutive quarters [7][8] - Prime brokerage revenues also reached all-time highs, indicating robust client activity amid market volatility [7] - The firm’s ability to generate revenue across various market conditions demonstrates its durable competitive advantage [8] Future Outlook - Management aims to exceed $10 trillion in client assets and expects net interest income to remain stable in the upcoming quarter [9] - Incremental capital will be allocated to core organic growth priorities, with selective inorganic acquisitions evaluated strategically [9]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenues of $16.8 billion, EPS of $2.13, and a return on tangible equity (ROTCE) of 18.2% [6][12] - Year-to-date revenue reached $34.5 billion, with EPS of $4.73 and ROTCE of 20.6% [6] - The firm has achieved six consecutive quarters of durable earnings, indicating consistent performance across varying market conditions [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Wealth and Investment Management saw total client assets increase to over $8.2 trillion, with a record profit before tax of $2.2 billion and margins exceeding 28% [7][22] - Institutional Securities generated revenues of $7.6 billion, with equity markets contributing $3.7 billion despite a slowdown in activity during part of the quarter [8][14] - Investment banking revenues were $1.5 billion, with a notable rebound in equity underwriting, while fixed income underwriting revenues were $532 million, reflecting a decline from the previous year [15][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a strong performance in Asia and EMEA regions, contributing to the overall revenue growth in institutional securities [14] - The investment banking pipeline remains healthy, with increased activity expected as market conditions stabilize [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on generating returns on incremental capital deployment and investing for growth across its integrated firm globally [6][10] - Management emphasized the importance of deepening client relationships and expanding lending capabilities, particularly in wealth management and investment banking [37][38] - The firm is also exploring inorganic growth opportunities that align with its core strategy, while maintaining a high bar for acquisitions [40][81] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a constructive outlook on the market environment, anticipating continued growth in wealth and investment management despite ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties [11][31] - The firm is witnessing increased client engagement and a willingness to navigate market volatility, which is expected to support future performance [9][44] Other Important Information - The company announced a quarterly dividend increase to $1 per share, reflecting its commitment to returning capital to shareholders [10][31] - Total spot assets increased by $54 billion from the prior quarter, with a standardized CET1 ratio of 15% [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on incremental return on capital and regulatory environment - Management highlighted the potential for increased profitability through regulatory reform and organic growth in investment banking and wealth management [36][40] Question: Impact of tariff policy on corporate sentiment - Management noted that if tariff policies remain within expected parameters, it could clear uncertainty and lead to increased strategic activity [44] Question: Inorganic growth opportunities - Management stated that any acquisitions must align with the core strategy of raising, managing, and allocating capital for clients, with a focus on organic growth [48][50] Question: Net new assets and advisor recruitment - Management reported strong net new assets driven by workplace channels and emphasized the strength of recruiting across all channels [52][54] Question: Stablecoins and market structure legislation - Management is actively discussing the implications of stablecoin legislation and its potential impact on the business [62][64] Question: Market backdrop and trading environment - Management indicated that the trading environment has been resilient, with strong retail engagement and inflows across various channels [70][72] Question: Asset management and capital deployment - Management acknowledged the potential for growth in asset management but emphasized the focus on organic opportunities within existing businesses [78][80] Question: Net interest income in a lower rate environment - Management discussed the potential for increased lending balances to offset lower rates, indicating a stable outlook for net interest income [82][83] Question: Lending through capital markets division - Management noted a shift in lending dynamics and the potential for increased participation in corporate lending as regulatory environments normalize [88][90]