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Regulatory outlook for banks is the best I've seen in decades, says RBC's Gerard Cassidy
Youtube· 2025-09-16 15:19
Group 1: Valuation and Market Performance - The current trading valuation for banks is around two times tangible book value, which is higher than recent historical levels, but this is not seen as a concern due to potential for continued outperformance [1][2] - The cyclical high for banks was noted at 2.2 times tangible book value in January 2018, indicating that there is still room for growth in valuations [2][3] - There is a significant discrepancy in performance among banks, with Citigroup up 40% this year compared to Bank of America and Wells Fargo, which are up 14% [7] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory outlook for banks is considered the best in decades, with expectations of increased profitability leading to higher valuations [3] - Recent changes in regulatory leadership suggest a less onerous approach, with new proposals expected to be more favorable for large banks [4][5] - The new Fed chair is anticipated to support economic growth, which could benefit banks through lower interest rates without triggering high inflation [6] Group 3: Interest Rate Environment - The current interest rate environment is favorable for banks, with potential Fed cuts of 50 to 75 basis points expected in the next three to six months [10] - A steep yield curve with a Fed funds rate above 3% has not been seen in over 20 years, allowing banks to benefit from low-cost deposits while lending at higher rates [11] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Citigroup is viewed as a turnaround story, successfully exiting unprofitable businesses and focusing on profitability, which has made it more attractive to investors [8] - Goldman Sachs is performing well in capital markets, benefiting from increased IPOs and merger and acquisition activity, indicating a positive outlook for the company [12]
Regulatory outlook for banks is the best I've seen in decades, says RBC's Gerard Cassidy
CNBC Television· 2025-09-16 14:59
RBC capital markets co-head of global financials research Gerard Cassidy joins us here at Post 9. Uh Gerard, you know they are trading at a book to tangible uh to price to tangible book value of around two times now which is a lot higher than at least I can remember recently. Why isn't that a concern to you in terms of your belief that they can continue to outperform.David, it's it is a higher valuation that we're than we're accustomed to, but I always go back to the early part of 2018 when we had a cyclica ...