更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha Global Credit Strategy Fixed Income H2 outlook – Not buying it Global Reality check We are not chasing this rally. Momentum-style strategies do not usually work in credit. This is less about a large probability of spread widening, but rather the asymmetric payoffs that become increasingly skewed against investors' favour as spreads tighten. For every dollar of outperformance US credit offers, investors leave themselves exposed to USD1.5 of potential losses, and up to USD3 in ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated record fee-related earnings (FRE) of $559 million, representing a 21% increase year over year [6][7] - Spread-related earnings (SRE) excluding notable items were $826 million, with adjusted net income at $1.1 billion or $1.82 per share [6][7] - Assets Under Management (AUM) increased by 17% year over year to $785 billion, with record inflows of $43 billion in the quarter [7][34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The asset management segment saw FRE growth driven by an 18% increase in management fees, particularly strong in credit, which grew by 23% [44] - Origination activity reached $56 billion, a nearly 30% growth year over year, with significant contributions from diversified channels [31][34] - Athene's net invested assets grew by 15% year over year, driven by record organic inflows across various channels [46][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a tightening of BBB corporate spreads below 100 basis points, a level not seen since 1998, indicating a highly competitive market environment [12][13] - The retail channel for fixed annuities experienced increased competition, with tighter spreads leading to a strategic focus on less competitive channels [18][19] - The company raised $26 billion in the first quarter and an additional $10 billion in April, investing in safer assets like cash and treasuries [19][20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a focus on origination as a source of excess return, with a willingness to reduce leverage and wait for favorable market conditions [9][11] - The strategy includes leveraging partnerships with traditional asset managers to integrate private assets into their offerings, anticipating a significant demand for private investments [86][90] - The company is positioned to capitalize on market volatility, with a strong pipeline of proprietary origination and a focus on maintaining a balance between capital growth and origination capacity [78][88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management described the current market as one of "hyper U.S. exceptionalism," with significant global capital flowing into U.S. markets [11][12] - The outlook includes expectations for continued strong demand for guaranteed income products due to an aging population and higher interest rates [17][20] - Management remains cautious about the competitive landscape and potential headwinds from rising costs and market volatility, but is optimistic about the company's positioning and origination capabilities [21][48] Other Important Information - The company announced the acquisition of Bridge Investment Group for approximately $1.5 billion, expected to enhance its real estate business [49] - The company is focused on maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation, returning $1.7 billion to shareholders over the past year through dividends and share repurchases [49] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the lower SRE and the conditions that could make you less conservative? - Management explained that they underwrite based on spread and ROE, with a focus on maintaining a mid-teens ROE. They are cautious due to competitive pressures and rising costs, but see potential for wider spreads in the future [55][61] Question: How are flows in the wealth channel, particularly AAA? - Management reported strong momentum in the wealth channel, with significant growth in inflows and a positive outlook for the remainder of the year [67][70] Question: What is the outlook for institutional demand amidst market volatility? - Management expressed optimism about institutional demand, noting that they have historically under-earned their fair share and see opportunities for growth in this area [73][78] Question: How does the company view the impact of foreign LPs reducing allocations to private markets? - Management acknowledged the potential risk but emphasized that the company's diversified business mix provides insulation against such dynamics [101][102]