Group 1 - Bitcoin climbed back above $93,000 following the latest US inflation data, indicating a return of risk appetite after weeks of ETF-driven selling [1][3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed inflation at 2.7% year over year, suggesting that while prices are still rising, the pace is much slower compared to the inflation shock of 2022 and 2023 [2][4] - The current inflation environment supports risk assets, as it alleviates fears of renewed monetary tightening, allowing investors to feel more comfortable holding assets like Bitcoin [3][5] Group 2 - Bitcoin's price surge is attributed not only to the CPI data but also to a stabilization phase after a significant ETF-driven reset, where over $6 billion exited US spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier in January [4][5] - Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have slowed, with Bitcoin trading close to the ETF average cost basis of $86,000, which often acts as a support level [5][6] - Bitcoin is building support between $88,000 and $92,000, with the CPI data removing a major macro risk, indicating that the reset phase is well advanced [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent $16 billion liquidity injection into the US banking system indicates underlying stress in short-term funding markets, raising concerns about the implications for risk assets like Bitcoin [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve injected $16 billion into the banking system on December 30, marking the second-largest liquidity operation since the COVID-19 crisis [1]. - The total amount of Treasury securities purchased via repos in December reached $40.32 billion, highlighting significant liquidity support [1][4]. - The December 30 operation is noted to be just behind pandemic-era emergency measures in size, suggesting a potential facade of stability [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - Financial commentator Andrew Lokenauth expressed concerns that the large injection may indicate superficial stability, with deeper issues in the financial system [2]. - Institutions are reportedly in need of cash to meet obligations related to commodities and collateral mismatches, indicating stress in the financial system [3]. - The ongoing liquidity support reflects year-end balance sheet constraints rather than an outright crisis, as banks face tighter regulatory requirements during reporting periods [4].

Stocks looked set to move sideways on Tuesday, with much of Wall Street on vacation and only a couple of economic data releases due between now and the holiday season. The three major indexes all rallied on Monday, putting the S&P within striking distance of its record closing high. Volumes have been light, but investors appear to be in a cheery enough mood in the lead-up to Christmas, with risk assets buoyed by last week's cooler-than-expected inflation print. Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Aver ...

Market Outlook - Wells Fargo Investment Institute expects modest growth with moderate to moderating inflation, a good setup for risk assets in 2026 [3] - The Institute has a year-end 2026 target of 7500 for the S&P 500, considering it a doable number given the expected economic environment [7] - The Institute anticipates the rest of the world, including the US, will perform better next year relative to this year [13] Investment Strategy - The Institute took advantage of the pullback in early April and would like to see another one [4] - The Institute previously overweight infoch and communication services but went neutral on communication services and technology [4][5] - The Institute favors financials as its most favored sector, anticipating financing, M&A, deregulation, and a better economy [6] - The Institute likes industrials and utilities, viewing them as beneficiaries of the AI trade due to the need for data center construction and electrical grid upgrades [5][6] - The Institute is neutral on developed international and emerging markets, viewing emerging markets as a potentially cheaper way to play technology and AI [8][9] - The Institute prefers sticking with larger cap midcaps and US over international, but is looking for opportunities to increase international exposure [9][10]

Tom Lee's 2026 Outlook: The Start of Expansion After Three Years of SuppressionIn interviews with The Prof G Pod (Dec 12) and Squawk Box (Dec 15), Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee shared his 2026 outlook.He argues markets have been suppressed by six "extinction-level" events and Fed hesitation, crushing corporate "animal spirits." He believes the business cycle only truly starts next year when rates drop and AI earnings grow, benefiting risk assets.Consequently, he sees 2026 mirroring this year: bearish first, then ...

Core Insights - US inflation slowed more than expected in November, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.7% year over year, below market expectations of 3.1% [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 2.6% year over year, also missing forecasts of 3.0%, indicating a notable deceleration in price pressures [2] Market Implications - The softer-than-expected inflation data suggests that inflation is cooling faster than anticipated, which may lead to a shift in Federal Reserve policy towards a more accommodative stance sooner than previously expected [3] - Markets are likely to interpret the data as supportive of rate cuts, particularly for early 2026, as lower inflation reduces pressure on real yields and the US dollar, benefiting risk assets [4] Crypto Market Reaction - A downside inflation surprise typically acts as a macro tailwind for the crypto market, improving liquidity conditions and risk appetite [5] - Short-term price action in the crypto market will depend on how quickly markets adjust Fed policy expectations and whether follow-through buying occurs after the initial reaction [5]

Japan’s households stepped up their quest for yield by boosting risk assets to more than a fifth of their total assets for the first time, as prolonged inflation erodes the value of cash holdings https://t.co/tNgB3ed0Mu ...

Bitcoin slipped in Asia trading hours while other risk assets gained after the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates and expressed optimism about the economy https://t.co/aYhNYmpJaP ...

currently also in camp that you want to be long going into back half of 2026 but really am not convinced Bitcoin/ETH/SOL/HYPE will be the fastest horses for risk assetsfejau (@fejau_inc):@Bing0to yeah the thesis has been- macro growth scare/shutdown impact/monetary liquidity concerns in Q4- same time as everyone selling cause 4 year cycle top- victory laps about 4 year cycle being right again- q4 dat unwind which has been ongoing, dont think they will be big sellers ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could significantly alter U.S. monetary policy, impacting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin while affecting savers and bondholders [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Policy - The Bessent-Hassett duo may represent a fundamental shift from the post-2008 monetary regime, transforming the Federal Reserve into a liquidity tool aligned with Treasury policy [2][3]. - This alignment could prioritize growth over austerity, reminiscent of the 1940s and 1950s, potentially benefiting risk assets such as Bitcoin [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - Bessent predicts GDP growth of 4% or more in Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer activity and favorable macroeconomic trends [5]. - The sentiment suggests that coordinated policy efforts could enable economic growth, as shrinking a large debt load may not be feasible without risking systemic issues [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Hassett has shown extreme bullishness towards equities and Bitcoin, being referred to as a "turbo dove" for risk assets by industry insiders [6].