The United States is incredibly risk averse compared to Europe. There's two kinds of risk. There's mistakes of commission where you do something that's a mistake. And then there's mistakes of omission where you don't do something and it's a mistake.And the United States is terrified of making mistakes of omission. When you are in a massive growth economy, missing out is more expensive than fumbling something. And so Europe is incredibly willing to embrace the risk of omission. The way that Europe is trying ...

Gold’s new record and a fresh US government shutdown put crypto on edge, with Bitcoin hovering near $116,000 as traders brace for data blackouts and a foggier Fed path. The United States entered a federal government shutdown overnight, rattling markets worldwide. Gold surged to an all-time high, while the dollar weakened, as crypto traders debated whether risk aversion would weigh on or support digital assets. (Source: Coingecko) Bitcoin was trading in the mid-$116,000s, fairly steady on the day, by th ...

By Niket Nishant and Sukriti Gupta (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq edged lower on Tuesday, the final day of the third quarter, on worries that a looming U.S. government shutdown could jeopardize the timely release of economic data. Sentiment turned risk averse a day after equities posted gains, underscoring how sensitive investors still are to any sign of uncertainty. While previous shutdowns have had a limited impact on markets, some analysts warned the current episode could be more disruptive g ...

[Applause] These are handcuffs. They're real. And I've carried them for years.As a police officer, I've clicked them shut more times than I could count. on drunk drivers who hurt and killed innocent people without even remembering the crash. On violent offenders who beat up people half their size.On thieves who didn't care who they victimized as long as they got away with something. And once on a teenager holding a knife, who didn't want to hurt anyone else, he just wanted to hurt himself. These cuffs weren ...

Market Trends & Trade - Trade deals and talks should matter a lot to the macro market, but much of it is already priced in [2] - The market is pricing in the absolute best-case scenario regarding a potential 90-day reprieve on trade issues [3] - The market yawned at the EU deal, indicating it was already expected [4] Risk Assessment & Market Sentiment - The market has shifted from complete risk aversion to complete risk acceptance in a matter of weeks [6] - There are signs of real froth in the market, with some describing it as a "flight to crap" [6] - The market is seeing levels similar to 2021 when money was free, which is worrisome [11] - "Flight to crap" is the opposite of "flight to quality," where investors seek maximum risk [8][9] Meme Stocks & Speculative Trading - Meme stocks and companies with no earnings are seeing bids, and SPACs are back [5] - Individuals were buying the market in April, and risky trades have worked for them [10] - The activity surrounding meme stocks is more akin to gambling than investing [12] - Options activity often precedes social media hype for meme stocks, with peaks occurring shortly after the market opens [13] Company Specific Concerns - Kohl's bonds are trading around $0.70 on the dollar, indicating potential troubles ahead [14]

Geopolitical Risk & Market Impact - Israel launched Operation Rising Line, targeting Iranian nuclear sites, escalating Middle East tensions [1][62] - Oil prices surged as much as 13% due to fears of a wider war impacting a third of global crude production [2][63] - Brent crude rose nearly 9%, trading around $75.47-$75.48 per barrel [3] - S&P futures fell over 1.5%, reflecting a risk-off mood in the markets [4][120] - Gold prices increased over 1%, nearing record highs as investors sought safe-haven assets [5][47] Potential Economic Consequences - A sustained rise in energy prices could lead to higher transport costs in Asia, limiting central banks' ability to cut rates and support domestic demand [51] - The Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of global oil output passes, is a potential target, threatening to cause oil prices to skyrocket [30][44] - The US dollar experienced a knee-jerk jump due to risk aversion, but its strength is unlikely to last due to underlying macro weaknesses and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [67][69] Strategic Analysis & Regional Response - Israel believes Iran was rapidly moving towards weaponization, potentially building nine atom bombs in the coming months, justifying the operation [13][14] - The US administration signaled a "proceed with caution" approach, allowing Israel to take the risk in hopes of breaking the diplomatic stalemate [24][25] - Oman condemned Israel's actions, and Gulf states are likely to distance themselves, emphasizing neutrality and signaling to Iran they have no interest in escalation [32][33][34] - Iran's armed forces chief of staff was reportedly killed in the strikes [37] - Saudi Arabia condemned Israel's attack on Iran, describing the incident as blatant [74]