Despite all the signs pointing to a risk-on day for US equities, optimism on trading floors didn’t last long https://t.co/sPOHMwB9rY ...

Government shutdown is nearly over.We all know what means:- Gold to stagnate.- Risk-off to become risk-on.- $BTC to pull the actual move upwards.- #Altcoins to follow suit.The final easy cycle. ...

Risk-on or risk-off today? ...

Gold comes down 10% in a single week.Yes, get used to it. It went 70% in a single year. That's far out of the normal boundaries of volatility, so the volatility will be high.It's going to go up 10% and down 10%.Did it peak? I don't know. Probably close for now. The reason for this is that it's quite far away from fair value pricing.Based on the monthly, it's still 30-40% away from the 20-Monthly MA.That's a lot.That's only seen before in the 70's during that massive run.Does that mean that you shouldn't buy ...

Market Trends - Gold experienced its largest single-day decline in over a decade, signaling a potential shift from risk-off to risk-on sentiment [1] - The market anticipates that Bitcoin may benefit from easing monetary policy, increased liquidity, and capital moving towards higher-risk assets [1] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin is positioned to potentially take the lead as capital moves out on the risk curve [1]

Bitcoin may be waking up here. Too early to tell, and hard to trust Sunday price action.The cloud of uncertainty will lift eventually, and markets will shift confidently risk-on. It's a waiting game for now. ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the multi-asset investment strategy as it heads into 2026, emphasizing the strength of the US economy despite recent tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions [2][18]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Fundamentals**: High-frequency US data indicates a reacceleration compared to bearish consensus expectations, with a sequential earnings decline expected in Q3 for SPX ex tech [2][48]. 2. **Impact of USD**: A weaker USD is anticipated to benefit US equities in the upcoming quarters, contributing to positive wealth effects and potential AI capital expenditure from the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' [2][48]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: Current sentiment has shifted away from short-term sell signals, with machine learning indicators showing a risk-on stance. The overall positioning suggests potential upside for emerging market equities and local rates [3][70]. 4. **Risks Ahead**: The primary risk identified is the potential for higher long-end yields, which could arise if the market begins to price in an end to Federal Reserve rate cuts [4][50]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategy**: The report advocates for a risk-on approach, favoring US and emerging market equities over risky fixed income, while remaining underweight in investment-grade credit [5][10]. 6. **Earnings Expectations**: Bottom-up data suggests that Q3 earnings expectations are low, which may be easier to beat, particularly with the supportive backdrop of a weaker USD [48][50]. 7. **M&A Activity**: There is an expectation of increased M&A and IPO volumes in the coming quarters, supported by a strong deal pipeline and upward revisions in company guidance [46][50]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Concerns**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties are acknowledged as headwinds, yet the global equity market remains at an all-time high [18]. - **Consumer Spending**: Positive wealth effects are expected to bolster consumer spending, particularly among high-income households in the US [41][50]. - **Technical Indicators**: The valuation-adjusted momentum framework continues to favor equities, particularly in emerging markets, while sentiment indicators suggest a cautious optimism among long-only investors [56][61]. - **Japan Equities**: A tactical overweight in Japan equities is recommended, particularly in the banking sector, which is expected to recover from recent underperformance [74][76]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the overall positive outlook for US equities and the strategic positioning of multi-asset investments as they approach 2026.

Core Insights - A record $1 trillion has been invested in US ETFs in 2025, indicating a significant shift from traditional mutual funds to ETFs [2][3] - The ETF industry is projected to reach $1.4 trillion by year-end, surpassing last year's record and solidifying ETFs as a dominant investment vehicle in the US [3] - Total US ETF assets reached $12.7 trillion by the end of September, with a 23% year-to-date growth rate and 41 consecutive months of net inflows [3] ETF Performance - Bond and gold ETFs have shown exceptional performance, with $39 billion in inflows for fixed-income ETFs last month and SPDR Gold Trust ETF attracting $15.97 billion as gold prices exceeded $4,100 per ounce [4] - The current market environment is characterized by a risk-on sentiment and persistent inflation, which are driving these inflows [4] Investor Behavior - BlackRock's iShares and Tidal Financial Group anticipate continued inflows into ETFs, as mutual fund outflows have reached $481 billion this year [5] - Investors are increasingly favoring ETFs for their cost efficiency, transparency, liquidity, and diversification, which are reshaping global investment behavior [5] Growth in Crypto ETFs - A parallel boom in crypto-linked funds and Asian ETF markets is expected, with significant growth anticipated in crypto ETFs over the next five years, potentially capturing 10-20% of all assets [7][8] - The cost-effectiveness of ETFs compared to traditional crypto services is highlighted, with exposure available for as low as 25 basis points [8]

Ultimately, after this massive crash, the maximum pain scenario is up.The markets were grinding up already and I think that these will resume.That's why I think that #Altcoins are the play.$ETH is the play.Risk-on is the play. ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 is experiencing a rotation with declining market breadth, indicating potential weakness despite making higher highs and higher lows [2][3] - Volume in the S&P 500 is declining, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the current bullish trend [2][5] - Communication services and financials are showing signs of consolidation and potential weakness, with upcoming earnings announcements from major banks like JP Morgan and Wells Fargo expected to impact the broader market [3][4] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its third day, with predictions suggesting it could last around 13 days, which may negatively affect investor sentiment and GDP [6][8] - The market remains cautiously optimistic about a resolution, but prolonged shutdowns could lead to increased economic impacts [7][8] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold is being treated as a risk-on commodity rather than a safe haven, which is unusual; aggressive selling was observed recently, but it has bounced back slightly [12][15] - The correlation between gold and equities is concerning, as typically gold should act as a safe haven during equity market pressures [14][16] Applied Materials Update - Applied Materials is facing pressure due to new US export rules limiting its ability to sell semiconductor equipment to China, projecting a revenue impact of approximately $110 million in Q4 2025 and $600 million in fiscal year 2026 [18][19] - The regulatory headwinds are expected to continue affecting the company's fundamentals, contributing to its stock pullback [20] S&P 500 Levels and Market Sentiment - Key levels for the S&P 500 are identified at 6760 for upside and 6700 for downside, with increasing volatility and credit spreads indicating potential market protection measures [21][22] - The market is seeing conflicting stories across different industries, with specific news impacting sectors like energy and industrials due to funding cuts [25]