#USELESS coin has the best memecoin chart in all of crypto right now and looks ready to full sendit's also the top gainer among the top 50 memecoins, outperforming stalwarts like $PENGU and $SPXonce again proving to be the fastest horse + best proxy for betting on risk-onit just broke out after consolidating for 24 days in the same range following a previous parabolic rallyplus, this weekend is shaping up to be a very bullish one for cryptoboth charts and fundamentals align for an aggressively explosive mov ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the global macroeconomic environment and investment strategies across various asset classes, focusing on trends in equities, fixed income, and emerging markets [2][8][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Risk-On Environment**: - The current market sentiment is risk-on due to no major escalation in trade disputes, stable global growth, and ongoing monetary easing. This environment supports equities, particularly in the US and China [2][7]. - Rationale: Large-cap stocks are benefiting from a weak USD year-to-date, conservative earnings forecasts, and improving return on equity (ROE) in China. Risks include a weak US labor market and disappointing consumption growth in China [2][7]. 2. **Fiscal Risk Premium**: - Preference for fiscally sound investments as structural steepening pressure persists due to large budget deficits and high public debt. Recommended trades include buying 10Y Australian government bonds (ACGBs) versus French OATs and favoring subordinated debt [2][7]. - Rationale: Australia and Spain exhibit better fiscal dynamics compared to France, which faces political uncertainty. Risks include potential fiscal austerity and lower long-end supply [2][7]. 3. **Rotation Trade & Global Easing**: - A rotation of funds from the US to emerging markets (EM) is ongoing, driven by a soft USD and global rate cuts. Recommended trades include overweighting EM equities and favoring Latin American currencies [2][7]. - Rationale: Low financial stress and ongoing rate cuts support this rotation. Risks include a potential return of US exceptionalism and heightened inflation [2][7]. 4. **US Dollar Dynamics**: - The USD is experiencing a tug-of-war, with recent resilient economic data supporting a potential rebound, while ongoing debates about Fed policy weigh on the currency [2][25]. - A sideways USD could benefit risk assets, especially in light of the ongoing easing cycle [2][26]. 5. **Emerging Markets Outlook**: - Emerging markets are expected to benefit from a weak USD and ongoing global easing, with a preference for high-yielding currencies in Latin America and CEEMEA [2][7]. - Risks include heightened risk aversion and a potential reconnection of the USD with yields [2][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Financial Stress and Market Volatility**: Financial stress has decreased, and market volatility has moderated following trade negotiations and geopolitical developments [9][11]. - **Global Growth Momentum**: Recent data indicates a recovery in global growth momentum, with the probability of a slowdown significantly reduced from 78% to around 30% [13][16]. - **Fiscal-Monetary Policy Concerns**: Investors are increasingly worried about fiscal challenges in various economies, leading to elevated risk premiums in the bond market [20][21]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - Overweight US and China equities due to attractive valuations and improving fundamentals [2][7]. - Favor BBs and subordinated debt in credit markets for uncorrelated returns [2][7]. - Buy 10Y MGS in Malaysia, anticipating strong reinvestment demand [2][7]. Conclusion The report outlines a cautiously optimistic outlook for equities, particularly in the US and China, while highlighting the importance of fiscal health in investment decisions. Emerging markets are positioned to benefit from global easing and a weak USD, although risks remain from potential economic slowdowns and geopolitical tensions.

Dollar looks like it wants to go lower here.BTC.D looks like it also wants to show a little more life toward the upside, and with Bitcoin now moving back up on lower time frames...Seems BTC over 120k with equities still going higher, risk-on and dips are for buying.Personally watching a few alts here$XRP, $HBAR, $SOL, $HYPE for some rallies on the back of Bitcoin breaking above.120k is crucial tho, gimme a daily close over that and 125k should be the upside target at least short term.Watching $PENGU for a m ...

Macro Strategy - The current market is entering a risk-off phase, with a potential shift back to growth after a period of risk-on behavior. The rotation pattern resembles that of early 2024 and late 2024, with initial strength in the TMT sector, followed by a rotation to upstream resources and finance, and then a short-term rebound in consumption and manufacturing sectors [1][10][11] - The macroeconomic fundamentals have not fundamentally changed compared to late 2024 and March 2025, suggesting that future industry rotation may continue to be driven by capital behavior. A defensive mode is recommended in the short term, focusing on stable sectors such as banks, utilities, and leading home appliance companies [1][11] Industry Insights - QuantumScape (QS) has successfully integrated its advanced Cobra membrane technology into its baseline battery production, marking a significant step towards scaling production capacity. The Cobra process improves thermal treatment speed by approximately 25 times and allows for more efficient production, representing a major advancement in ceramic membrane manufacturing [3][14] - QS's QSE-5 B solid-state battery cells have recently entered small-scale production, with deliveries to select automotive customers. The introduction of the Cobra membrane is expected to accelerate the trial and adoption of QS's B1 samples [3][14] - Domestic lithium battery equipment manufacturers have a significant first-mover advantage in the solid-state battery equipment sector, with several companies successfully covering the entire manufacturing process. In 2024, multiple equipment manufacturers have received orders exceeding 100 million yuan, positioning them to benefit from the industrialization of solid-state batteries [5][14] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on solid-state battery equipment suppliers such as XianDao Intelligent, laser welding equipment manufacturers like LianYing Laser, and formation and capacity equipment providers like HangKe Technology. Attention is also drawn to dry/wet electrode equipment manufacturers and other related companies [5][14] - For ZhongAn Online, the company has initiated an H-share placement to enhance its capital base and support growth in its insurance and technology sectors. The expected net proceeds from the placement are approximately 39.96 billion HKD, which will bolster its financial strength and support its growth trajectory [7][17][18] - Xiangcai Co., Ltd. is undergoing a transformation into wealth management and financial technology, with significant growth expected in net profit from 2025 to 2027. The company is leveraging its acquisition of Dazhihui to enhance its competitive edge in the financial services market [9][19]

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has raised global geopolitical risks, with significant military actions observed since June 13, 2025[2][18] - If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it could trigger a broader regional conflict involving multiple countries, leading to increased market volatility[2][18] Group 2: US-China Relations - Despite a temporary easing of tariffs, uncertainties remain in US-China relations, particularly in technology and national security sectors, which could lead to further tariff increases[1][13] - The fluctuating tariff policies under Trump's administration create a perception of instability, impacting market confidence[1][13] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition from a risk-on to a risk-off phase is evident, with global equity assets showing signs of weakness since the tariff reversals began on April 7, 2025[3][19] - Market sentiment is shifting towards defensive assets like gold and the US dollar, while oil prices may rise due to geopolitical tensions[3][19] Group 4: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption growth remains stable in Q2 2025, supported by holiday effects and fiscal data, but export growth faces a potential 10% tariff increase[4][23] - The overall economic outlook is characterized as "weakly stable," with market movements increasingly influenced by international events and capital flows[4][23] Group 5: Capital Flows and Market Behavior - Margin trading balances have stabilized around 1.8 trillion yuan, with institutional positions decreasing from 73.6% to 69.9%, indicating insufficient incremental capital[5][24] - Market trading behavior shows a trend towards structural rotation, with a notable shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks as market dynamics evolve[5][24]

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has raised global geopolitical risks, with significant military actions observed since June 13, 2025[2][17] - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a broader regional conflict, increasing market volatility[2][17] Group 2: US-China Relations - Despite a temporary easing of tariffs, uncertainties remain in US-China relations, particularly regarding technology and national security issues[1][13] - Trump's fluctuating tariff policies may continue to create instability as he seeks to maintain Republican support ahead of midterm elections[1][13] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market has shifted from a "risk-on" to a "risk-off" phase, with global equity assets reflecting a lack of driving force for recovery since the tariff reversals began on April 7, 2025[3][18] - Following the court's decision on May 28, 2025, the market's positive expectations regarding tariffs have largely been exhausted, indicating a potential shift in asset pricing dynamics[3][18] Group 4: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic real estate data shows a weakening trend compared to Q1 2025, while consumer spending is supported by fiscal measures but lacks sustainability without further subsidies[5][22] - Export growth faces challenges with at least a 10% tariff increase, leading to a weak and slowing overall economic outlook[5][22] Group 5: Capital Flows and Market Behavior - Margin financing balances have remained around 1.8 trillion yuan since April 7, 2025, with institutional positions decreasing from 73.6% to 69.9%[6][31] - Market trading behavior indicates a shift towards structural rotation, with declining turnover rates suggesting weakening market sentiment and potential end to industry rotation[6][31]

11 June 2025 Mid-year outlook Multi-Asset Multi-Asset Direction H1 = uncertainty = risk-off in H2? H1 has been all about high levels of uncertainty, whether among companies, central banks or in politics. But when looking at past spikes in economic policy uncertainty, we find that risk assets typically rebound rather than suffer further. What's the next catalyst? One of the most frequent questions we're currently getting is what the next upside catalyst will be. Persistently subdued sentiment and positioning ...