Gold (GCZ25) prices overnight hit another record high of $3,922.70, basis December Comex futures. Siver (SIZ25) prices scored another 14-year high of $47.825 in December futures. Better safe-haven demand amid the uncertainty of the U.S. government shutting down at midnight last night is the latest bullish catalyst for the two precious metals. www.barchart.com www.barchart.com In this report I’m going to offer my perspective on the record-setting bull move in gold and the near-record (possibly to be brok ...

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have recently seen a surge in investor appetite, recording a net inflow of $430 million on Sept. 30 alone. The funds brought the cumulative inflow to over $950 million in just two trading sessions this week. This turnaround comes after a week that mostly saw outflows, weighing heavily on market sentiment. The fresh wave of institutional demand has helped stabilize Bitcoin’s price, which is currently trading around $114,500. Government Shutdown: Demand to Grow for Al ...

Currency Market - The euro rose by +0.03% after hawkish comments from ECB officials, indicating a potential end to the rate-cut cycle, contrasting with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The dollar index increased by +0.04% due to higher T-note yields, but fell back after a decline in consumer sentiment [5] - USD/JPY rose by +0.22% as political uncertainty in Japan and a commitment from US and Japanese officials to let markets determine currency rates reduced safe-haven demand for the yen [7][9] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectations remained at +4.8%, while 5-10 year expectations rose unexpectedly to +3.9% [3] - The consumer sentiment index fell to a 4-month low of 55.4, indicating weaker consumer confidence than expected [3] Precious Metals - December gold closed up +0.35%, and silver rose +1.62%, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by central bank purchases, with China's PBOC increasing its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month [11] - Political uncertainties in France and Japan are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [12]

Core Viewpoint - Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. (HMY) is expected to report fiscal 2025 results on August 28, with earnings estimated at $2.85 per share, indicating a 190.8% year-over-year increase [1]. Group 1: Earnings and Production Outlook - Higher gold prices and strong production in Q4 are anticipated to positively impact HMY's performance, despite challenges from rising costs [2][6]. - The consensus estimate for fiscal 2025 earnings has remained stable over the past 60 days, with an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [3]. - HMY is projected to meet its full-year production guidance of 1.4-1.5 million ounces, despite a 6% decline in output during the first nine months due to adverse weather conditions [5][6]. Group 2: Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have surged this year, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, driven by safe-haven demand amid global trade tensions and geopolitical issues [4]. - Although gold prices have retreated from their April highs, they remained above $3,300 per ounce at the end of Q2 [4]. Group 3: Cost Pressures - HMY faces significant cost pressures, with all-in sustaining costs rising approximately 24% in Q3 and total cash costs increasing by 22% year-over-year [8]. - Labor and electricity costs are the largest components of HMY's cost structure, and while the company is pursuing energy-saving initiatives, higher electricity tariffs are expected to continue impacting margins [8]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - HMY's shares have increased by 53.4% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry and the S&P 500 [9]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 5.52, which is about 60.5% lower than the peer group average of 13.97 [12]. Group 5: Development Projects and Strategic Position - HMY has a diverse portfolio of gold development projects, including the Wafi-Golpu copper-gold project in Papua New Guinea, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's reserves [15]. - The company maintains a strong balance sheet and generates substantial cash flows, enabling it to finance development projects and enhance shareholder value [16]. - The acquisition of the Eva Copper project aligns with HMY's strategy to transition into a low-cost gold and copper producer, supported by favorable gold prices [17].

Core Viewpoint - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) is expected to report strong second-quarter 2025 results, benefiting from higher gold prices and robust production levels [1][8]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM's second-quarter earnings is $1.69 per share, reflecting a 57.9% year-over-year increase [2]. - Revenue estimates stand at $2.55 billion, indicating a 22.9% rise compared to the previous year [2]. - AEM has consistently beaten earnings estimates, averaging a 12.3% beat over the last four quarters [5]. Production and Costs - AEM's estimated payable gold production for Q2 is 866,598 ounces, supported by strong performance at LaRonde, Macassa, and Nunavut operations [10]. - The all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) for gold are projected at $1,212 per ounce, reflecting a 2.5% sequential and 3.6% year-over-year increase [11]. Market Conditions - Gold prices have surged approximately 27% year-to-date, closing the second quarter above $3,300 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and a weak dollar [9]. - AEM's realized gold prices for the quarter are estimated at $2,929 per ounce, a 25.1% increase year-over-year [9]. Stock Performance and Valuation - AEM shares have increased by 70.2% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry and the S&P 500 [12]. - The company is currently trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 18.62, which is a 46.3% premium to the peer group average [15]. Growth Prospects - AEM is positioned for growth through key projects like Odyssey, Detour Lake, and Hope Bay, which are expected to enhance production and cash flows [16]. - The merger with Kirkland Lake Gold has established AEM as a leading senior gold producer with a strong pipeline of development projects [16]. Financial Health - AEM maintains a strong liquidity position and generates substantial cash flows, enabling it to finance growth projects and enhance shareholder value [17]. - The rising gold prices are anticipated to further boost AEM's profitability and cash flow generation [17]. Investment Outlook - AEM stock is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong growth pipeline, solid financial health, and positive earnings outlook [18].

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corporation's shares have increased by 22% over the past three months, driven by rising gold prices amid trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly due to the Israel-Iran conflict [1][7]. Performance Comparison - NEM stock has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 17% rise and the S&P 500's increase of 5.7% [2]. - Among peers, Barrick Mining Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, and Kinross Gold Corporation have gained 9.6%, 16.4%, and 26% respectively during the same period [2]. Technical Indicators - Technical indicators show bullish momentum for NEM, with the stock trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a long-term uptrend [5]. Financial Strength - Newmont generated a record $1.2 billion in free cash flow in Q1 2025, showcasing solid financial strength [7]. - The company has a liquidity position of $8.8 billion, including cash and cash equivalents of approximately $4.7 billion [13]. - Operating cash flow from continuing operations increased by roughly 162% year-over-year to around $2 billion in Q1 2025 [13]. Growth Projects and Acquisitions - Newmont is pursuing several growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at expanding production capacity and extending mine life [10]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has created a leading portfolio with a multi-decade production profile, expected to deliver significant shareholder value and synergies of $500 million annually [11]. Divestitures - Newmont has divested non-core assets, generating total after-tax cash proceeds of approximately $2.55 billion from various sales [12]. Gold Price Dynamics - Gold prices have increased by roughly 29% this year, reaching a record high of $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, driven by global trade tensions and central bank purchases [14][16]. - Currently, gold prices are hovering near $3,400 per ounce, supported by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties [16]. Dividend and Earnings Estimates - NEM offers a dividend yield of 1.7% with a payout ratio of 24%, indicating a sustainable dividend [17]. - Earnings estimates for 2025 have been revised higher, with a Zacks Consensus Estimate suggesting a year-over-year growth of 20.1% [18]. Valuation - NEM stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 13.21X, which is about 7% lower than the industry average of 14.21X [20]. Investment Outlook - Newmont presents an attractive investment case backed by a robust portfolio of growth projects, strong performance of Tier 1 assets, and solid financial health, making it a prudent choice for investors [23].

Core Viewpoint - Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) has experienced a significant share price increase of 62.3% over the past three months, outperforming both the Zacks Mining – Gold industry and the S&P 500, driven by rising gold prices and strong operational performance [1][7]. Group 1: Stock Performance - ARMN shares have outperformed its peers, with B2Gold Corp. (BTG) and AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) gaining 37% and 44.5%, respectively, during the same period [1]. - Technical indicators show ARMN stock surpassed its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 4, 2025, and is currently trading above the 200-day SMA, indicating a bullish trend [5][7]. Group 2: Production and Growth Prospects - ARMN reported an 8% year-over-year increase in gold production for the first quarter, positioning the company to meet its full-year production guidance of 230,000 to 275,000 ounces [10]. - The Segovia Operations in Colombia are a key contributor to ARMN's production, with ongoing expansion projects expected to enhance production rates significantly [11][12]. - ARMN aims for an annual production rate of approximately 500,000 ounces of gold following the commissioning of the Segovia plant expansion [12]. Group 3: Financial Health - ARMN ended the first quarter with a cash balance of $240 million and generated $40 million in cash flow, supporting its strategic growth initiatives [17]. - The company has successfully raised over $19.4 million from the exercise of in-the-money warrants, further strengthening its balance sheet for future investments [17]. Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - ARMN is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 4.44X, representing a 67% discount compared to the industry average of 13.49X [18]. - Earnings estimates for ARMN have been revised upward, with projected year-over-year increases of 226.5% and 80.6% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [21].

Core Insights - Newmont Corporation (NEM) and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) are significant players in the gold mining industry, with global operations and diversified portfolios. Gold prices, while down from April 2025 highs, remain favorable due to safe-haven demand amid trade and geopolitical uncertainties, currently above $3,300 per ounce [1][2]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased approximately 28% this year, driven by aggressive trade policies, global trade tensions, and central bank accumulation of gold reserves. Prices peaked at $3,500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, amid calls for interest rate cuts [3]. Newmont Corporation (NEM) - Newmont is actively investing in growth projects, including the Tanami Expansion 2 in Australia and the Ahafo North expansion in Ghana, aimed at increasing production capacity and extending mine life [5]. - The acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited has enhanced Newmont's portfolio, generating $500 million in annual run-rate synergies and creating a multi-decade production profile [6]. - Newmont has divested non-core assets, generating total after-tax cash proceeds of $4.3 billion, which includes $1.7 billion from three assets sold in March 2025 and $850 million from additional sales [7]. - The company reported liquidity of $8.8 billion at the end of Q1 2025, with operating cash flow increasing 162% year-over-year to around $2 billion [8]. - Newmont returned $1 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and reduced debt by $1 billion since the beginning of 2025, maintaining a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of around 20% [10]. Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) - Kinross has a strong production profile with key projects like Great Bear in Ontario and Round Mountain Phase X in Nevada, expected to enhance production and cash flow [11]. - Tasiast and Paracatu are the main contributors to Kinross's cash flow, with Tasiast being the lowest-cost asset and achieving record production in 2024 [12]. - Kinross ended Q1 2025 with liquidity of approximately $2.3 billion and generated record free cash flows of around $1.3 billion in 2024 [13]. - The company repaid $800 million of debt in 2024, reducing net debt to around $540 million, with a long-term debt-to-capitalization ratio of 14.4% [14]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, NEM stock has increased by 46.5%, while KGC stock has risen by 66.8%, outperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 54.4% [15]. - NEM trades at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 12.59, approximately 10% below the industry average of 14X, while KGC trades at a premium with a multiple of 13.37 [18][20]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NEM's 2025 sales and EPS indicates a year-over-year rise of 2% and 20.1%, respectively, while KGC's estimates imply growth of 15.3% and 63.2% [21][24]. Investment Considerations - Both Newmont and Kinross are well-positioned to benefit from favorable gold prices, demonstrating strong financial performance and commitment to shareholder returns. Newmont is viewed as a more attractive investment due to its valuation and higher dividend yield [25].

Core Insights - Barrick Mining Corporation's stock has shown bullish momentum, breaking above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and gaining approximately 6% in a week due to rising gold prices driven by trade and geopolitical tensions [1][8] - The stock is also trading above its 200-day SMA, indicating a long-term uptrend, with a golden crossover occurring on April 9, 2025 [2] Stock Performance - Over the past year, Barrick's shares have increased by 20.3%, underperforming the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's 52.6% rise but outperforming the S&P 500's 10.8% increase [5] - Compared to peers, Newmont Corporation, Kinross Gold Corporation, and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited have seen gains of 34.6%, 97%, and 85.3%, respectively [5][6] Production and Projects - Key projects such as Goldrush and Lumwana are progressing on schedule and within budget, which is expected to enhance long-term output [8][11] - The Goldrush mine aims for 400,000 ounces of annual production by 2028, while the Reko Diq project in Pakistan is projected to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually starting in 2028 [12][13] Financial Performance - Barrick's liquidity is strong, with cash and cash equivalents around $4.1 billion and operating cash flows of approximately $1.2 billion in Q1 2025, a 59% increase year over year [17] - The company returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2024 through dividends and share repurchases, with a healthy dividend yield of 2% and a payout ratio of 28% [18] Cost Challenges - Barrick faces rising costs, with cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) increasing by approximately 16% and 20% year over year, respectively [19] - For 2025, total cash costs are projected to be between $1,050-$1,130 per ounce, and AISC is expected to range from $1,460-$1,560 per ounce, indicating a year-over-year increase [19][20] Production Outlook - The company forecasts attributable gold production for 2025 to be between 3.15-3.5 million ounces, a decline from 3.91 million ounces in 2024, primarily due to reduced output from certain mines [20] - Total gold production fell roughly 19% year over year to 758,000 ounces in Q1 2025 [20] Earnings Estimates - Earnings estimates for Barrick have been revised upward over the past 60 days, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 being adjusted higher [21] Valuation - Barrick's stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 10.67X, which is about 23.6% lower than the industry's average of 13.97X, indicating an attractive valuation [21] Investment Recommendation - The combination of production growth initiatives, strong financial health, rising earnings estimates, and a safe dividend yield suggests a positive outlook for Barrick, although caution is warranted due to high costs and a subdued production forecast [22]

Company Overview - Kinross Gold is a senior gold mining company with a diverse portfolio of mines located in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Mauritania, and Canada, focusing on operational efficiency, cost control, and strategic asset optimization [2] Earnings Estimates - Over the last 60 days, four analysts have increased their earnings estimates for Kinross Gold for both the current year and the next year, indicating positive revision activity [3] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 has risen to $1.04 from $0.77 just two months ago, while next year's estimate increased from $0.80 to $1.16 [3][4] Growth Projections - Current year EPS growth is projected at 52.94%, with next year expected to grow another 12.3% to $1.16 [4] Macro Environment - Gold prices are reaching record highs, driven by both short-term safe-haven demand and longer-term trends, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will act soon, leading to a weaker dollar and lower real yields, which are favorable for gold prices [5] Cost Structure - Kinross Gold's all-in sustaining costs (AISC) are trending toward the lower end of its peer group, positioning the company to benefit significantly from any increase in gold prices [6] - If gold prices remain above $2,300 per ounce, Kinross is expected to be not just profitable but highly profitable [6]