Market Analysis by covering: US Dollar Japanese Yen. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com ...

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) is down -0.04%, influenced by a smaller-than-expected decline in US jobless claims and a larger-than-expected drop in January existing home sales [1] - US weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by -5,000 to 227,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than the expected 223,000 [2] - January existing home sales fell -8.4% month-over-month to a 16-month low of 3.91 million, below expectations of 4.5 million [3] Currency Movements - The Chinese yuan has strengthened, reaching a new 2.5-year high, which is putting additional pressure on the dollar [1] - The euro (EUR/USD) is up by +0.09% amid mild dollar weakness, although gains are limited by a decline in German bund yields [5] - The yen (USD/JPY) is down by -0.24%, with the yen reaching a 2-week high against the dollar, supported by lower T-note yields [6] Interest Rate Expectations - Swaps markets are pricing in a 6% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 17-18 [4] - The FOMC is expected to cut interest rates by approximately -50 basis points in 2026, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [4] - There is a 3% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its next policy meeting on March 19 [5]

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY00) fell to a 1-week low, finishing down by -0.83% due to pressure from Chinese regulators advising financial institutions to reduce US Treasury holdings, raising concerns about foreign demand for US dollar assets [1] - The Chinese yuan strengthened, reaching a 2.5-year high against the dollar, further contributing to the dollar's decline [1] - The dollar's losses were exacerbated by comments from National Economic Council Director Hassett, who indicated expectations of slightly lower US job numbers due to slower population growth and higher productivity [1] Foreign Investment Trends - The dollar reached a 4-year low following President Trump's remarks expressing comfort with the dollar's weakness, as foreign investors withdrew capital from the US amid a growing budget deficit and political polarization [2] - The swaps market is pricing in a 19% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with expectations of a -50 basis point cut by 2026 [3] Eurozone Developments - The EUR/USD pair rallied to a 1-week high, finishing up by +0.88%, supported by a weaker dollar and a rise in the Eurozone Feb Sentix investor confidence index to a 7-month high of 4.2, surpassing expectations [4] - ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir stated that interest rates should only be altered in response to significant deviations from growth and inflation baselines, with a mere 2% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next ECB meeting [5] Japanese Yen Movement - The USD/JPY pair fell by -0.91%, with the yen recovering from a 2-week low as Japanese Finance Minister Katayama's comments prompted short-covering in the yen, emphasizing communication with financial markets to maintain stability in dollar-yen movements [6]

💡 Key Takeaways🔹 Track USD/JPY + geopolitics, rotations are still fragile.🔹 Watch BNB’s $900 level as the sentiment line in the sand.🔹 Follow ENSO + “intent” tooling after the volume spike.Stay informed, stay ahead:https://t.co/huzNYtuDpr7/7 ...

核心驱动：日本、澳洲、新西兰的经济数据+亚太资金流动，央行干预(如日本央行)多在此时段落地 适配货币对：日系货币对为主，澳新系为辅 全球外汇市场不同交易时段的流动性、参与主体和驱动逻辑不同，适配的货币对存在明确差异，核心遵 循**"本地时段交易本地货币"原则，叠加时段重叠区的跨币种机会，以下按北京时间**梳理各时段适配 货币对及交易特征，精准匹配流动性与波动规律： 亚洲时段(9:00-15:00) 主流：USD/JPY(美日)、EUR/JPY(欧日)、GBP/JPY(镑日) 次选：AUD/USD(澳美)、NZD/USD(纽美)、AUD/JPY(澳日) 交易特征：整体流动性偏低，波动偏窄震荡，日系交叉盘易受日本基本面、避险情绪(如日元避险属性) 驱动，澳新系紧盯澳洲联储政策、大宗商品价格(如黄金、铁矿石)。 亚盘与欧盘重叠时段(15:00-18:00) 核心驱动：欧洲资金逐步入场+亚太资金未离场，欧元区初阶数据+欧央行讲话 适配货币对：欧系货币对为主，日系交叉盘为辅 主流：EUR/USD(欧美)、GBP/USD(镑美)、EUR/GBP(欧镑) 次选：EUR/JPY、GBP/JPY 交易特征：流动性快速提升，欧系 ...

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY00) has dropped to a 2-week low, down by -0.84%, primarily due to President Trump's actions regarding Greenland, which have raised fears of trade confrontations with European allies [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut interest rates by approximately -50 basis points in 2026, contributing to the dollar's underlying weakness [3] - The Federal Reserve has begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, which is increasing liquidity in the financial system and putting additional pressure on the dollar [4] Euro and Yen Performance - The EUR/USD pair has rallied to a 3-week high, up by +0.66%, driven by dollar weakness and positive economic expectations from Germany, where the ZEW survey expectations for economic growth rose to a 4.5-year high of 59.6, exceeding expectations of 50.0 [5] - The USD/JPY pair is down by -0.03%, with the yen gaining strength due to safe-haven demand amid rising trade tensions between the US and Europe, as well as higher Japanese government bond yields, which have reached a nearly 27-year high of 2.359% [7] Economic Indicators - The German Producer Price Index (PPI) for December fell by -2.5% year-on-year, which was weaker than the expected decline of -2.4% and marks the steepest pace of decline in 20 months [6] - Swaps are indicating a 0% chance of a +25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the upcoming policy meeting on February 5 [6]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Ukrainian President Zelensky anticipates a meeting with President Trump to discuss a potential peace deal involving a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe [1] - The US Coast Guard has forced the sanctioned oil tanker Bella 1 to divert from Venezuela as part of President Trump's blockade on sanctioned oil tankers [2] - The US has launched strikes on ISIS targets in Nigeria in collaboration with the Nigerian government to address rising terrorist attacks [3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The dollar is under pressure as the Federal Reserve increases liquidity by purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, with concerns about a dovish Fed Chair appointment impacting the dollar's strength [4][5] - The dollar index has decreased by -0.09%, extending a weekly decline of approximately -0.7%, despite a stronger-than-expected US GDP report of +4.3% [6] - The euro has gained support from ECB members indicating satisfaction with the current interest rate outlook, while the yen has shown volatility due to mixed economic indicators and comments from Japan's Finance Minister [7][8][9] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver have reached new all-time highs, supported by geopolitical concerns and the US's military actions, alongside a positive US GDP report [11] - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's PBOC increasing its reserves and global central banks purchasing 220 MT of gold in Q3, a +28% increase from Q2 [13] - Fund demand for precious metals is robust, with silver ETF holdings reaching a 3.5-year high and gold ETF holdings recovering close to a 3.25-year high [14]

Core Insights - The fifth round of the 2025 DooTrader Charity Trading Cup concluded successfully on December 14, 2025, with the sixth round starting immediately after on December 15, 2025, inviting traders to compete for a spot in the final island championship [2][15] - The competition saw a resurgence in spot gold prices, reaching approximately 4,350, influenced by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, showcasing the decisive execution of participants [2][3] Performance Highlights - In the fifth round, the "Breaking Wave" group demonstrated a mature trend trading mindset, with total profits exceeding $10,000, particularly highlighted by champion Wu L****, who made strategic trades in XAU/USD [6][7] - The "Rising Star" group achieved remarkable single-round earnings exceeding $30,000, with a return rate of 3,326%, earning an additional $1,000 bonus for their performance [9][10] - Champion Xue Y**** from the Rising Star group showcased strong strategic resilience, capturing significant profits through timely trades in gold, including a single trade yielding $20,167 [10][12] Tournament Structure and Future Events - The tournament features a total prize pool of 3 million RMB, with 2 million distributed across six monthly rounds, and the final champion set to receive 1 million RMB [12] - The "Kick Challenge" mechanism allows participants to challenge the top three from the previous round for additional bonuses, enhancing competitive dynamics [12][13] - The upcoming sixth round requires a registration fee of $500, with participants on the MT5 platform eligible for a 5% bonus on their earnings [15]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The commentary focuses on global macroeconomic trends, particularly in the currency and bond markets, as well as geopolitical influences on oil prices. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Currency Movements**: - USD/JPY retraced down to 157 as Japan's Ministry of Finance (MoF) reiterated potential foreign exchange (FX) intervention, indicating a proactive stance on currency stability [6][7][12] - The DXY index decreased by 0.3%, reflecting a general weakening of the dollar against risk-sensitive currencies like AUD, NZD, and GBP [6][11] 2. **Bond Market Dynamics**: - US rates experienced a modest sell-off, with a bear-flattening bias observed (2-year rates increased by 2 basis points, while 30-year rates rose by 1 basis point) [6] - The 2-year UST auction showed weak demand, tailing by 0.3 basis points, which may indicate investor caution ahead of upcoming auctions [6][7] 3. **Equity Market Performance**: - US equities continued their rally, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.6%, although defensive sectors like Consumer Staples lagged [6][11] - Japanese equities also saw a positive response, with the Nikkei index rising by 1.8% amid a risk-on sentiment [6] 4. **Geopolitical Influences**: - Oil prices rose nearly 3% to over $62 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuelan oil shipments, highlighting the impact of external factors on commodity prices [7][11] 5. **Central Bank Commentary**: - ECB Executive Board Member Schnabel indicated that rate hikes are not expected in the near term, which led to a slight rebound in front-end bunds [7][12] - Fed Governor Miran expressed concerns about a potential recession if rates are not lowered, suggesting a possible 25 to 50 basis point cut at the next meeting [7][12] Additional Important Insights 1. **Inflation Expectations**: - Inflation risks remain a focal point, with comments from various Fed officials suggesting that further rate cuts will depend on economic data, particularly regarding inflation trends [7][12] 2. **Emerging Markets**: - In Thailand, the Bank of Thailand proposed maintaining the 2026 inflation target at 1-3%, although it is expected to miss this target due to rising oil prices [8] 3. **Market Sentiment**: - The overall market sentiment is characterized by a robust risk appetite as the year-end approaches, which is influencing both equity and bond markets positively [6][11] 4. **Economic Data Releases**: - Upcoming economic data releases, including US GDP and employment figures, are anticipated to provide further insights into economic health and potential market movements [17] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various markets.

December 12, 2025 03:08 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global EUR/USD may re-test its previous highs should US labor market data disappoint and President Lagarde fail to explicitly push back on hike expectations from the ECB. JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish We closely monitor upcoming US labor market data next week. Any further weakness in US labor market data can open the door for USD/JPY to go 150.00, as we expect the BoJ to express further normalization at the upcoming December MPM. Our Latest Views Morgan S ...