核心驱动：日本、澳洲、新西兰的经济数据+亚太资金流动，央行干预(如日本央行)多在此时段落地 适配货币对：日系货币对为主，澳新系为辅 全球外汇市场不同交易时段的流动性、参与主体和驱动逻辑不同，适配的货币对存在明确差异，核心遵 循**"本地时段交易本地货币"原则，叠加时段重叠区的跨币种机会，以下按北京时间**梳理各时段适配 货币对及交易特征，精准匹配流动性与波动规律： 亚洲时段(9:00-15:00) 主流：USD/JPY(美日)、EUR/JPY(欧日)、GBP/JPY(镑日) 次选：AUD/USD(澳美)、NZD/USD(纽美)、AUD/JPY(澳日) 交易特征：整体流动性偏低，波动偏窄震荡，日系交叉盘易受日本基本面、避险情绪(如日元避险属性) 驱动，澳新系紧盯澳洲联储政策、大宗商品价格(如黄金、铁矿石)。 亚盘与欧盘重叠时段(15:00-18:00) 核心驱动：欧洲资金逐步入场+亚太资金未离场，欧元区初阶数据+欧央行讲话 适配货币对：欧系货币对为主，日系交叉盘为辅 主流：EUR/USD(欧美)、GBP/USD(镑美)、EUR/GBP(欧镑) 次选：EUR/JPY、GBP/JPY 交易特征：流动性快速提升，欧系 ...

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY00) has dropped to a 2-week low, down by -0.84%, primarily due to President Trump's actions regarding Greenland, which have raised fears of trade confrontations with European allies [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut interest rates by approximately -50 basis points in 2026, contributing to the dollar's underlying weakness [3] - The Federal Reserve has begun purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, which is increasing liquidity in the financial system and putting additional pressure on the dollar [4] Euro and Yen Performance - The EUR/USD pair has rallied to a 3-week high, up by +0.66%, driven by dollar weakness and positive economic expectations from Germany, where the ZEW survey expectations for economic growth rose to a 4.5-year high of 59.6, exceeding expectations of 50.0 [5] - The USD/JPY pair is down by -0.03%, with the yen gaining strength due to safe-haven demand amid rising trade tensions between the US and Europe, as well as higher Japanese government bond yields, which have reached a nearly 27-year high of 2.359% [7] Economic Indicators - The German Producer Price Index (PPI) for December fell by -2.5% year-on-year, which was weaker than the expected decline of -2.4% and marks the steepest pace of decline in 20 months [6] - Swaps are indicating a 0% chance of a +25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) at the upcoming policy meeting on February 5 [6]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Ukrainian President Zelensky anticipates a meeting with President Trump to discuss a potential peace deal involving a demilitarized zone in eastern Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe [1] - The US Coast Guard has forced the sanctioned oil tanker Bella 1 to divert from Venezuela as part of President Trump's blockade on sanctioned oil tankers [2] - The US has launched strikes on ISIS targets in Nigeria in collaboration with the Nigerian government to address rising terrorist attacks [3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The dollar is under pressure as the Federal Reserve increases liquidity by purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, with concerns about a dovish Fed Chair appointment impacting the dollar's strength [4][5] - The dollar index has decreased by -0.09%, extending a weekly decline of approximately -0.7%, despite a stronger-than-expected US GDP report of +4.3% [6] - The euro has gained support from ECB members indicating satisfaction with the current interest rate outlook, while the yen has shown volatility due to mixed economic indicators and comments from Japan's Finance Minister [7][8][9] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver have reached new all-time highs, supported by geopolitical concerns and the US's military actions, alongside a positive US GDP report [11] - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's PBOC increasing its reserves and global central banks purchasing 220 MT of gold in Q3, a +28% increase from Q2 [13] - Fund demand for precious metals is robust, with silver ETF holdings reaching a 3.5-year high and gold ETF holdings recovering close to a 3.25-year high [14]

Core Insights - The fifth round of the 2025 DooTrader Charity Trading Cup concluded successfully on December 14, 2025, with the sixth round starting immediately after on December 15, 2025, inviting traders to compete for a spot in the final island championship [2][15] - The competition saw a resurgence in spot gold prices, reaching approximately 4,350, influenced by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, showcasing the decisive execution of participants [2][3] Performance Highlights - In the fifth round, the "Breaking Wave" group demonstrated a mature trend trading mindset, with total profits exceeding $10,000, particularly highlighted by champion Wu L****, who made strategic trades in XAU/USD [6][7] - The "Rising Star" group achieved remarkable single-round earnings exceeding $30,000, with a return rate of 3,326%, earning an additional $1,000 bonus for their performance [9][10] - Champion Xue Y**** from the Rising Star group showcased strong strategic resilience, capturing significant profits through timely trades in gold, including a single trade yielding $20,167 [10][12] Tournament Structure and Future Events - The tournament features a total prize pool of 3 million RMB, with 2 million distributed across six monthly rounds, and the final champion set to receive 1 million RMB [12] - The "Kick Challenge" mechanism allows participants to challenge the top three from the previous round for additional bonuses, enhancing competitive dynamics [12][13] - The upcoming sixth round requires a registration fee of $500, with participants on the MT5 platform eligible for a 5% bonus on their earnings [15]

December 22, 2025 10:31 PM GMT Global Macro Commentary | Global December 22: Risk-On Into Year- End USD/JPY retraces down to 157 as Japan MoF reiterates potential FX action; bunds outperform slightly after ECB's Schnabel moderates rate hike expectations; oil rises on geopolitical tensions in Venezuela; weak 2y UST auction; US equities extend rally; DXY at 98.27 (-0.3%); US 10y at 4.17 (+1.6bp). The Global Macro Commentary will resume on Friday, January 2. Global rates see mixed but muted moves while JPY ret ...

December 12, 2025 03:08 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global EUR/USD may re-test its previous highs should US labor market data disappoint and President Lagarde fail to explicitly push back on hike expectations from the ECB. JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish We closely monitor upcoming US labor market data next week. Any further weakness in US labor market data can open the door for USD/JPY to go 150.00, as we expect the BoJ to express further normalization at the upcoming December MPM. Our Latest Views Morgan S ...

Economic Indicators - The December Empire manufacturing survey unexpectedly contracted by 22.6 points to -3.9, significantly weaker than the expected 10.0 [3] - The NAHB housing market index for December rose by 1 to an 8-month high of 39, aligning with expectations [3] - Eurozone industrial production for October increased by 0.8% month-over-month, marking the largest rise in 5 months and meeting expectations [6] Federal Reserve Policy - The dollar index is down by 0.24% due to the contraction in the Empire manufacturing survey, which is seen as a dovish factor for Federal Reserve policy [1] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated that the current policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive for the economy, citing a benign inflation outlook and labor market concerns [3] - There is a 27% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 basis points at the upcoming January meeting [4] Currency Movements - The euro (EUR/USD) is up by 0.23%, reaching a 2.5-month high, supported by dollar weakness and positive Eurozone industrial production data [5] - The yen (USD/JPY) is down by 0.60%, climbing to a 1-week high against the dollar due to stronger-than-expected Japanese economic indicators and expectations of a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [7] Market Sentiment - Concerns are growing that President Trump may appoint a dovish Fed Chair, which could negatively impact the dollar [2] - Markets are pricing in a 0% chance of a rate cut by the European Central Bank at the upcoming policy meeting, indicating a divergence in central bank policies between the Fed and the ECB [6]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.20% due to short covering ahead of the FOMC meeting, with the dollar gaining after October JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high of 7.670 million, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected decline to 7.117 million [1][3] - The markets are pricing in a 90% chance that the FOMC will cut the federal funds target range by 25 basis points at the conclusion of the upcoming FOMC meeting [3] Currency Movements - The euro (EUR/USD) decreased by -0.11% amid the dollar's strength and weaker-than-expected German trade news, with German October exports rising by +0.1% month-over-month, below the expected +0.2%, and imports falling by -1.2% month-over-month, worse than the anticipated -0.5% [4][5] - The yen (USD/JPY) rose by +0.53%, reaching a 2-week low against the dollar, pressured by comments from BOJ Governor Ueda regarding the pace of increase in long-term Japanese bond yields and the potential for increased bond buying by the BOJ [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The call discusses the macroeconomic outlook, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets [3][4][5][6]. US Rates - **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Fed is expected to skip the December meeting, with easing anticipated in January and April 2026. The funds rate target range is projected to be 3.25-3.5% by mid-2026 [3][10][15]. - **Yield Forecasts**: 2-year Treasury yields are expected to reach 3.60% in 1H26 and 3.85% by YE26. 10-year yields are projected to rise to 4.25% in 1H26 and 4.35% by YE26 [10][15]. - **Financing Gap**: A smaller financing gap is anticipated due to lower medium-term deficit projections, but a large gap is expected to emerge in FY26 [19][16]. International Rates - **Market Performance**: USD rates outperformed with a 1-2 basis point increase, while EUR rates sold off by 2-3 basis points. The UK saw a steeper 2s/30s curve [4][33]. - **UK Economic Data**: The UK labor market data was softer than expected, raising concerns about fiscal policy and potential tax changes [4][41]. Commodities - **Oil Market Outlook**: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 0.9 mbd in 2025 and 1.2 mbd in 2026, while supply is expected to outpace demand. Price forecasts are $58 for Brent and $54 for WTI in 2026 [85]. - **Natural Gas Prices**: US natural gas prices are forecasted to average $3.74/MMBtu in 2026, driven by production growth to meet LNG demand [88]. - **Base Metals**: A bullish outlook on copper is maintained, with prices expected to rise to $12,500/mt in 1H26 and average $12,075/mt for the full year 2026 [89]. Currencies - **EUR/USD Forecast**: A bullish view on EUR/USD is maintained, with a target of 1.22. However, gains may be moderate due to balanced risks on the US side [53][58]. - **Emerging Markets**: The outlook for emerging markets has improved, with a recommendation to stay overweight on EM FX and rates [6][10]. Additional Insights - **Foreign Demand for Treasuries**: Despite concerns about 'de-dollarization', foreign demand for US Treasuries has firmed in 2025, although private demand may decline due to higher yields [27][66]. - **Equity Market Trends**: US equity buying continues, with net equity purchases from foreign investors increasing [67][69]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, commodity forecasts, and currency outlooks.

Summary of J.P. Morgan's 2026 Year-Ahead Outlook Industry Overview - The report discusses the macroeconomic environment and market dynamics as they relate to various asset classes, particularly focusing on the U.S. Treasury yield curve, equities, and commodities [5][7][33]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Markets are expected to face a multi-modal macro risk distribution, with a base-case scenario suggesting a shift from a central mode to a right-side distribution indicating improving growth expectations but with increased overheating risks [5][7]. - The left-side tail risk, representing recession, is acknowledged but considered less likely compared to the overheating scenario [5][7][26]. Treasury Yields - Front-end Treasury yields are anticipated to remain in a bullish range, while the belly and long end of the curve may face bearish pressure due to risk-on trends and widening inflation breakevens [5][33]. - The 2-year note is highlighted as a key indicator for market expectations, currently positioned near critical levels around 3.50% [8][12][35]. Equities - Large-cap U.S. stocks are expected to lead a bullish trend into the first half of 2026, with higher volatility and potential drawdowns anticipated [5][13]. - Chinese equity indexes, such as the CSI 300 and Hang Seng, are noted for their bullish patterns, suggesting potential for reaching 2021 cycle highs [15][17]. Commodities - Base metals are expected to catch up to the strong performance of precious metals, with a longer-term bullish trend anticipated [5][21]. - Crude oil prices are expected to remain range-bound, contrasting with the bullish outlook for base metals [5][21]. Currency Outlook - A stronger U.S. dollar is anticipated in early 2026, with the potential for simultaneous strength in the AUD/USD pair, which is historically an outlier [5][16]. Inflation and TIPS Breakevens - The report suggests that bullish trends in base metals could lead to upward pressure on 10-year TIPS breakevens, which are expected to widen towards the 240-250 basis points range [20][66]. - A gradual rally in front-end yields is expected, with TIPS breakevens potentially widening if inflation pressures increase [20][66]. Risk Scenarios - The report outlines a left-side tail risk scenario where recession could lead to predictable market trends, but this is viewed as a lower probability outcome [26][68]. - A more aggressive bullish scenario for the 2-year note could indicate a recession outcome, leading to a significant break in consumption and labor data [26][40]. Other Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring key levels, trends, and patterns in various markets to react to potential regime changes [7][12]. - The technical setup for the 2-year note suggests a potential target near 1.75% if bearish scenarios materialize [40][46]. - The report also discusses the potential for a steepening of the yield curve, particularly in the 2s/5s and 2s/10s curves, as markets navigate through 2026 [54][60]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the expected market conditions and investment strategies for 2026, highlighting both opportunities and risks across various asset classes.