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Dollar Slightly Higher as US Banking Concerns and Trade Tensions Recede
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-17 19:40
The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday rose by +0.09%. The dollar recovered from a 1.5-week low on Friday and turned higher after concerns eased over the credit quality of US regional banks. The dollar rose as the alleged loan frauds tied to Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp appear to be confined and show no signs of contagion. An easing of US-China trade tensions is positive for global growth prospects and the dollar, following President Trump's statement that high tariffs on Chinese goods are uns ...
宏观研究关注重点 - 美中贸易紧张局势、货币贬值交易、政府停摆对数据的干扰-What's Top of Mind in Macro Research_ US-China trade tensions, the debasement trade, shutdown data disruptions
2025-10-16 01:48
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic factors affecting global markets, particularly focusing on the US-China trade tensions, currency stability, and the precious metals market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Tensions** - President Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China is viewed as a negotiating tactic rather than an imminent policy change. The expectation is for a continuation of the current tariff pause beyond November 10, with limited concessions from both sides [1][4][11] - The potential outcomes of the trade negotiations could vary widely, including both increased concessions and the risk of new export restrictions and higher tariffs [1][4] 2. **Currency Stability** - Despite the ongoing government shutdown affecting key US data, the USD/CNY exchange rate has remained stable, indicating a preference for currency stability by Chinese policymakers. This trend is expected to continue in the near term [2][9] 3. **Debasement Trade in Markets** - The "debasement trade," characterized by a shift from Dollar-denominated assets to precious metals, is anticipated to persist. The expectation is for the Dollar to weaken further due to less exceptional US growth compared to other G10 economies, ongoing tariff threats, and concerns about institutional credibility [3][4] - Gold prices have reached all-time highs, with expectations for further increases driven by inflows from Western ETF buyers and central banks. Silver is also expected to rise, but with greater volatility and downside risk compared to gold [3][5][6] 4. **Impact of Government Shutdown** - The ongoing US government shutdown is set to disrupt key economic data releases, which may affect market sentiment and investment decisions [9][10] 5. **Japanese Political Dynamics** - The withdrawal of the Komeito party from its coalition with the LDP is being monitored, with predictions suggesting a low probability of large-scale fiscal expansion in the near term. This political shift may impact the Japanese Yen's performance [9][10] 6. **Earnings Reporting Season** - The Q3 earnings reporting season is underway, with expectations that S&P 500 earnings growth will exceed the consensus estimate of 6% year-over-year. European firms are expected to report earnings in line with consensus, but those exposed to the US market may face greater tariff impacts compared to previous quarters [9][10] 7. **World Portfolio Strategy** - There is a focus on a diversified investment strategy through the World Portfolio, which encompasses all global assets. The analysis suggests that following benchmarks may not always yield optimal results, and a more tailored approach could improve risk-adjusted returns [10][11] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the importance of alternative data during the government shutdown and highlights the potential for better European growth benefiting domestic market segments [9][10] - The analysis of the precious metals market indicates a clear beneficiary in the South African Rand (ZAR) due to its undervaluation and high carry, while the Indian Rupee (INR) is seen as vulnerable in the foreign exchange space [5][6]
Tariffs Temporarily Reverse Yen's Trajectory, Market Awaits Central Bankers
Benzinga· 2025-10-13 12:31
Market Overview - Risk assets experienced significant volatility, with equities initially rising despite a U.S. government shutdown, only to decline sharply after President Trump's announcement of 100% tariff hikes on Chinese imports, resulting in the worst weekly loss for major indices since late May, with the Dow Jones dropping as much as 2.7% [1] - The dollar strengthened broadly due to safe-haven demand and a lack of U.S. data, which typically suppresses volatility [2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, saw a notable increase, surpassing $4,000 per ounce after previously clearing $3,000 earlier in the year [2] Currency Movements - The Japanese yen initially weakened as USD/JPY surged over 2% to 150.47, influenced by Japan's ruling LDP selecting a leader aligned with Abenomics-style policies, but later strengthened as equities declined [3][4] - The euro faced pressure against the dollar and pound amid political instability in France, with the US Dollar Index rising to 98.11 [4] Currency Pairs in Focus - GBP/AUD broke a long-term downtrend, rising sharply against the AUD and surpassing resistance at 2.05250, indicating potential for further bullish movement [5][7] - The Singapore dollar reached its highest point against the yen year-to-date, with a pullback observed towards former resistance at 116.280, which could present a buying opportunity if it holds as support [8][10] Upcoming Events - The upcoming earnings season is anticipated to provide market orientation, with major banks set to report Q3 results, while the ongoing government shutdown may delay macroeconomic updates [11][12] - Market participants will closely monitor trade war developments and central bank updates, with several speeches scheduled throughout the week [12]
Dollar Rebounds on Higher T-note Yields
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-02 14:33
Group 1: Dollar Index and US Labor Market - The dollar index (DXY00) recovered from early losses and is up by +0.23%, supported by higher T-note yields which strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials [1] - The dollar initially declined due to the US government shutdown and signs of weakness in the labor market, with a report indicating that US employers have cut the most jobs this year since 2020 [2] - US September Challenger job cuts fell by 25.8% year-on-year to 54,064, with a total of 946,426 job cuts announced this year, the highest for the same period since 2020 [3] Group 2: Eurozone Economic Indicators - The EUR/USD pair is down by -0.17%, influenced by the dollar's rebound and an unexpected increase in the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [4] - The Eurozone's August unemployment rate rose by +0.1 to 6.3%, indicating a weaker labor market than expected [5] - ECB Governing Council member Kazaks stated that current ECB interest rates are appropriate, suggesting a pause in rate cuts [6] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Economic Outlook - The USD/JPY pair is up by +0.09%, with the yen losing overnight gains as T-note yields rose [7] - The Japanese consumer confidence index for September rose to a 9-month high, initially supporting the yen [7] - BOJ Deputy Governor Uchida indicated that the BOJ will continue to raise interest rates if the economic outlook improves, pushing the Japanese 10-year bond yield to a 17-year high of 1.674% [7]
Dollar Falls on US Government Shutdown and Weak Labor Market News
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-01 14:26
Economic Indicators - The US September ADP employment change unexpectedly fell by 32,000, marking the largest decline in 2.5 years, and August's figure was revised down to a loss of 3,000 from a previously reported gain of 54,000 [2] - The US September ISM manufacturing index rose by 0.4 to a 7-month high of 49.1, exceeding expectations of 49.0, while the ISM price paid sub-index fell by 1.8 to an 8-month low of 61.9, below expectations of 62.7 [3] Currency Movements - The dollar index (DXY) is down by 0.19% at a 1-week low, influenced by the US government shutdown and weak labor market data, which increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut to 100% for the upcoming FOMC meeting [1] - The euro (EUR/USD) is up by 0.09% at a 1-week high, supported by dollar weakness and an upward revision to the Eurozone September S&P manufacturing PMI [4] - The USD/JPY is down by 0.61%, with the yen reaching a 2-week high against the dollar due to increased safe-haven demand following the US government shutdown and positive Japanese economic indicators [7] Central Bank Policies - The market anticipates that the ECB is nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to implement approximately two more rate cuts by the end of the year [5] - Swaps are pricing in a 1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB at the October 30 policy meeting [6]
美元熊市格局的必然性-The USD Bear Regime Necessities
2025-09-25 05:58
September 22, 2025 11:26 AM GMT G10 FX Strategy The USD Bear Regime Necessities Forget about USD strength, your worries, and your strife. The Fed's reaction function shift suggests a sustained period of the USD bear regime which means a large but increasingly broad USD sell-off. We expand our USD 'sell list' to beyond the DXY majors to include AUD and CAD. Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. | M September 22, 2025 11:26 AM GMT | | Global Idea | | --- | --- | --- | | G10 FX Strategy | Morg ...
Dollar Supported by Higher T-Note Yields
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-12 19:33
Currency Market - The euro rose by +0.03% after hawkish comments from ECB officials, indicating a potential end to the rate-cut cycle, contrasting with expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The dollar index increased by +0.04% due to higher T-note yields, but fell back after a decline in consumer sentiment [5] - USD/JPY rose by +0.22% as political uncertainty in Japan and a commitment from US and Japanese officials to let markets determine currency rates reduced safe-haven demand for the yen [7][9] Inflation and Economic Sentiment - The University of Michigan's 1-year inflation expectations remained at +4.8%, while 5-10 year expectations rose unexpectedly to +3.9% [3] - The consumer sentiment index fell to a 4-month low of 55.4, indicating weaker consumer confidence than expected [3] Precious Metals - December gold closed up +0.35%, and silver rose +1.62%, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and increased geopolitical risks [10][11] - Gold prices are bolstered by central bank purchases, with China's PBOC increasing its gold reserves for the tenth consecutive month [11] - Political uncertainties in France and Japan are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [12]
Dollar Falls on Fed-Friendly US Economic Reports and Euro Strength
Yahoo Finance· 2025-09-11 19:31
Group 1: Euro and ECB - The euro rose by +0.37% after the ECB kept interest rates unchanged and raised its 2025 Eurozone GDP forecast to +1.2% from +0.9% [1][5] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that the disinflationary process is over, suggesting that the ECB is done cutting interest rates [1][5] - The ECB maintained its 2025 Eurozone inflation ex-food and energy estimate at 2.4% [5] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - US August CPI increased to +2.9% y/y from +2.7% y/y in July, aligning with expectations [3] - Weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +27,000 to a 3.75-year high of 263,000, indicating a weaker labor market than anticipated [3][4] - The markets are pricing in a -73 bp rate cut in the federal funds rate by year-end, reducing it to 3.60% from the current 4.33% [2] Group 3: Dollar and Fed Expectations - The dollar index fell by -0.28% as jobless claims rose unexpectedly and CPI met expectations, reinforcing the likelihood of a 25 bp rate cut by the Fed [4] - The dollar is under pressure from increased expectations for Fed easing and concerns over Fed independence [3][4] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices closed down -0.23% while silver prices rose +1.32%, reflecting mixed performance in precious metals [9] - Gold demand is supported by geopolitical risks in Europe and increased purchases by China's central bank, which raised its gold reserves to 74.02 million troy ounces [10] - Fund buying of precious metal ETFs has led to gold holdings reaching a 2.25-year high and silver holdings a 3-year high [12]
【UNFX 课堂】美联储 "鹰鸽转换"外汇市场的暴风雨如何捕捉
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 01:18
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting stance of the Federal Reserve from a hawkish to a dovish approach, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts, which could significantly impact the foreign exchange market and create opportunities for non-USD currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Shift - The Federal Reserve is transitioning from a high interest rate environment aimed at controlling inflation to signaling potential interest rate cuts, with futures markets indicating nearly an 80% probability of a rate cut in September and possibly two 25 basis point cuts within the year [2][5]. - The shift from hawkish to dovish policy is expected to weaken the dollar's high-interest rate advantage, leading to downward pressure on its value [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Non-USD Currencies - Major non-USD currencies such as the Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen are gaining momentum against the dollar as the latter's appeal diminishes [3][4]. - Emerging market currencies are experiencing relief as financing pressures ease alongside the weakening dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in their exchange rates [4]. Group 3: Trading Strategies - Strategy 1 involves trend-following by focusing on long positions in major non-USD currency pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with specific technical levels identified for entry and exit [5][6]. - Strategy 2 suggests a carry trade approach, where traders go long on high-yield currencies (e.g., Mexican Peso, New Zealand Dollar) while shorting currencies expected to face rate cuts [7]. - Strategy 3 emphasizes volatility trading around key economic data releases and Federal Reserve announcements, which are likely to cause significant price movements [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - The article highlights that a weak dollar does not guarantee a linear decline, as market corrections and geopolitical events may lead to temporary rebounds [11]. - It stresses the importance of independent assessments of currency strength based on central bank policies and economic fundamentals, along with strict risk management practices [11].
X @Starknet 🐺🐱
Starknet 🐺🐱· 2025-08-07 11:39
RT Brother Lyskey 🐺🐱 (@Starknet_OG)i think you're all not bullish enough on this launchfirst, Extended is unlocking a use case Starknet still doesn't have: perp tradingand not just a simple GMX fork or some random shit, no, a next-gen Perp DEX that's actually very efficient.- ~60 trading pairs- 7 TradFi markets: gold, silver, oil, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, EUR/USD, USD/JPY- up to 100x leverage- vault yielding 26% in USDC 🤯 (+ you're stacking Extended points btw)in the future, users will be able to put any kind o ...