The price of gold hit a new record high—something that normally happens when investors are fearful and seeking a safe haven. But the stock markets also hit a new record high—normally a signal of optimism. The reason? Investors are both bullish and afraid, according to Deutsche Bank. The price of gold hit another record high today, which Deutsche Bank noted is incongruous with the optimistic tone of markets more widely. Gold does, after all, usually act as a safe haven in periods of economic unease. The ...

Geopolitical Risk Assessment - The market currently perceives no significant tail risk, with Iran unlikely to disrupt global trade substantially [1] - The market is trading the situation as a successful US intervention, ending uncertainty around Iran's nuclear program [2][3] - The key market concern is a sustained blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which would disrupt regional oil flow and affect the global economy [5][6] Market Reaction and Trading Strategy - Macro traders are closely monitoring the situation, but the market's reaction will be subdued unless there is a significant event [2][4] - Any headline other than a sustained Strait of Hormuz blockage will likely cause a temporary risk-off reaction that will be faded [6] - It is sensible to trade based on the current narrative until a development changes the situation [3] Dollar as a Safe Haven - The dollar is experiencing a slight haven bid due to marginal de-risking and deleveraging into the world's reserve currency [9] - The US benefits from higher oil prices as the world's largest oil producer, which supports the dollar [7][8] - The dollar's slight increase should not be mistaken for a major haven bid, as gold and treasuries are lower [10]

one year inflation drops from 66 down to 51. That's a pretty big drop. Joining us this morning, Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El-Erian is with us Mohamed.It's a treat for us to be able to get your take on on the news of the day. I did read this morning that you feel that this this news out of the Middle East is net net maybe Stagflationary does that explain some of the action in treasuries. >> It is Stagflationary. The question is how stagflationary is it.And that's a function of what you just talk ...

Core Insights - Berkshire Hathaway has achieved an impressive gain of approximately 17% in 2025, despite a general market decline [1] - Coca-Cola's stock has increased nearly 10% year to date, attributed to its effective "all-weather strategy" [1][2] - Coca-Cola reported Q4 net revenue of $11.5 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share rising 12% [2] Company Performance - Coca-Cola's operating margin improved to 23.5% from 21% in the previous year [2] - The stock is perceived as a safe haven, appealing to investors during market volatility [3] - Other stocks in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, such as BYD, Marubeni, and Sumitomo, have outperformed Coca-Cola this year [5][6] Investment Considerations - Coca-Cola may not be the best choice for growth investors, who might prefer stocks like BYD or Amazon [7] - Value investors may also seek alternatives, as Coca-Cola's forward earnings multiple is approximately 23.6, which is not considered cheap [8] - Coca-Cola is an attractive option for income investors, offering a forward dividend yield just below 3% and a record of 63 consecutive years of dividend increases [9]