Market Overview - The Russell 2000 has shown resilience, bouncing back after a brief dip below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and is nearing new highs [1] - Small-cap stocks have started to outperform large caps, with a notable turnaround in the past six months, where the December Russell 2000 futures rose 16% compared to an 11% increase in the December S&P 500 [3] Valuation and Earnings Growth - Small caps are currently positioned for a catch-up trade due to lower valuations, with expected profit growth of around 22% next year, compared to 15% for large caps [2] - Despite the recent gains, overall valuations for small caps remain historically low compared to large caps [3] Seasonal Trends - Historical data indicates a strong seasonal buying pattern for the March Russell 2000 futures, with an 87% occurrence rate of closing higher on February 15 than on December 19 over the past 15 years [8] - The combination of seasonal trends and technical indicators suggests a favorable setup for traders, particularly with the year-end rebalancing and January effect [6][11] Trading Opportunities - Futures traders can engage with mini-Russell (QR) or micro contracts (RX), which trade for 23 hours per day on the CME Group exchange, or through the exchange-traded fund (ETF) IWM [10] - The current market conditions and technical indicators suggest that traders should consider entering positions in small caps to capitalize on the potential upside as the market shifts [11]

Core Insights - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a refined copper deficit of approximately 150,000 tons in 2026, with other analysts predicting a shortfall exceeding 400,000 tons, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance that is expected to drive copper prices higher in 2026 [1][5][14] Supply Constraints - Structural supply issues such as declining ore grades, lack of new significant mine discoveries, and operational disruptions at existing mines are anticipated to constrain production, worsening the supply deficit [2][14] Demand Drivers - Analysts project a moderate global economic growth increase from 3% in 2025 to around 3.2% in 2026, with ongoing urbanization in the Asia-Pacific region driving demand for construction and electrical applications [3][14] - The expansion and upgrade of power grids to accommodate new energy sources and increased consumption will significantly increase copper demand [4][14] - The push for decarbonization and energy security, alongside the rollout of renewables and electric vehicles, is expected to require substantial amounts of copper [4][14] Market Trends - Copper prices are on an upward trajectory as the market anticipates a significant deficit in 2026, with global demand expected to surpass new supply by a considerable margin [5][14] - The March 2026 copper futures contract has been in an uptrend since September 2022, setting multiple new contract highs, indicating strong market momentum [7][15] Seasonal Analysis - A 15-year seasonal pattern indicates a seasonal low around mid-August, with historical data showing that March copper prices have closed higher on February 21 than on November 21 for 13 of the past 15 years, suggesting a favorable trading window [9][14] Technical Picture - The technical setup supports a bullish outlook, with March 2026 copper futures trading near all-time highs and a reliable seasonal pattern indicating strength from late November into February [15]

Core Viewpoint - Meta Platforms Inc. is entering a historically favorable 30-day period for stock performance, with a strong track record of returns from June 11 to July 11 over the past 13 years [1][2]. Historical Performance - Meta shares have gained in 12 out of the last 13 years during this 30-day window, with an average return of 6.3% and a median gain of 6.5% [2]. - The best return occurred in 2012 with a rise of 14.68%, while 2022 was the only year with a loss, showing a modest dip of 0.84% [2]. - The standard deviation of returns is 4.49%, indicating a relatively stable performance range [2]. Drawdown Analysis - In the 12 positive years, only three years experienced drawdowns greater than 2%: 2014 (-4.59%), 2016 (-4.37%), and 2020 (-3.72%) [3]. - Most years saw negligible or no intra-period pullbacks, with 2012, 2018, and 2023 showing no declines from the starting level during the entire 30-day stretch [3]. Future Projections - If historical trends continue, Meta's stock could potentially rise by $44, approaching $742 by mid-July [4]. - As of 2025, Meta has increased by 19% year-to-date, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 index, which is up 4% [5]. Financial Performance - In its April report, Meta reported a revenue growth of 16% year-over-year, reaching $42.3 billion, and earnings per share of $6.43, which is a 35% increase [5].