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中国晶圆制造设备进口追踪(2025 年 8 月):8 月同比增长 12%,年初至今增长 3%,全年有望持平 China WFE Import Tracker (Aug 2025)_ Aug YoY+12%, YTD +3%, on track to be a flat year_ Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment
2025-09-28 14:57
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment - **Focus**: Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) imports to China Core Insights and Arguments - **August 2025 WFE Imports**: Total imports reached USD 3,010 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 12% but a month-over-month decrease of 20% [2][25] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Year-to-date imports are up 3% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential flat year overall [2][25] - **Lithography Segment Growth**: Lithography imports grew by 55% year-over-year in August, while other segments remained mostly flat [3] - **Vendor Performance**: U.S. vendors (including Malaysia and Singapore) captured approximately 38% of the market share, up from 33% in 2024, driven by Malaysia's increased share [3] - **Japan's Market Share**: Japan's share of WFE imports remains weak at 24% year-to-date, down from an average of 26% last year, due to unfavorable foreign exchange conditions and delayed purchases [3] Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Estimated China lithography imports for Q3 at EUR 2.17 billion, a 44% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 22% decrease year-over-year. China sales are expected to represent 38% of overall system revenue, up from 27% in Q2 [4][66] - **LRCX (Lam Research)**: Predicted a 14% increase in China revenues for Q3, with China exposure expected to be around 40% of total revenues [5][79] - **AMAT (Applied Materials)**: Anticipated a 12% decrease in China revenues for Q4, with China exposure around 33% of total revenues [6][88] - **TEL (Tokyo Electron)**: Expected a 12% year-over-year increase and a 23% quarter-over-quarter increase in China revenue [8] - **Kokusai**: Projected a significant increase in China revenue, up 58% year-over-year and 54% quarter-over-quarter [9] - **Screen**: Expected a decline in China revenue, down 11% year-over-year but up 16% quarter-over-quarter [10] - **Advantest**: Anticipated a further decline in China revenue, down 41% year-over-year and 35% quarter-over-quarter [11] Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 450.00, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution in China [13] - **AMEC**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 300.00, recognized for its technology and market position [14] - **Piotech**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 300.00, noted for product innovation and market share gains [15] - **AMAT**: Positive outlook on WFE growth, driven by market expansion and capital returns [18] - **LRCX**: Supportive commentary for CY25, indicating a potential NAND upgrade cycle [19] - **ASML**: Cautious stance on growth, with revenue forecasts aligning with lower guidance [20] Additional Important Insights - **China's Role in WFE Market**: China is increasingly significant in the global WFE market, with global vendors capturing about 84% of the market share in 2024 [21] - **Import Trends**: The data indicates a shift in production for U.S. vendors, with increased imports from Singapore and Malaysia [38][46] - **Lithography Imports**: The share of lithography imports from the Netherlands has increased significantly since 2023, reflecting changes in supply chain dynamics [60][62] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the semiconductor capital equipment industry, company-specific forecasts, and broader market trends.
BERNSTEIN:中国半导体设备进口追踪(2025 年 5 月)_进口韧性显现,年初至今同比 - 2%,全年预测存在上行风险
2025-06-25 13:03
Summary of the Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market in China, with a specific update on **May 2025** import data indicating resilience despite a year-to-date (YTD) year-over-year (YoY) decline of **2%** [2][22]. Key Insights - **May 2025 WFE Imports**: Total imports reached **USD 2,829 million**, reflecting a month-over-month (MoM) decline of **16%** and a YoY decline of **1%**. The YTD average import is **USD 2,773 million**, slightly lower than the previous year's average of **USD 3,159 million** [2][22]. - **Import Segmentation**: The largest segments for imports are **Deposition (26%)**, **Dry Etch (21%)**, and **Lithography (12%)**. Japan remains the largest trading partner, accounting for **25%** of imports, while Guangdong and Shanghai are the biggest domestic buyers, with shares of **37%** and **22%**, respectively [3][22]. Company-Specific Insights - **Tokyo Electron (TEL)**: Expected to see a **12% QoQ** increase in China revenue, with a projected **-10% YoY** decline for FY26/3. China is anticipated to contribute **42%** of total revenues [4][62][63]. - **Kokusai**: Forecasted to experience a **-32% QoQ** decline in China revenue, with an expected contribution of **37%** to total revenues [4][66][70]. - **Screen**: Anticipated to decline by **-27% QoQ** in China revenue, with a contribution of **30%** to total revenues, below the company's guidance of **45%** [5][73][79]. - **Advantest**: Expected to see a significant decline of **-60% QoQ** in China revenue, with exposure dropping to **8%** from **19%** in the previous quarter [5][82]. Market Dynamics - The **lithography segment** is experiencing a sharp decline, with imports expected to drop to **EUR 0.79 billion** in Q2, down **66% YoY** and **49%** sequentially. This is attributed to record low import levels in April and May [9]. - The overall WFE market in China is becoming increasingly important, with global vendors capturing approximately **84%** of the market share in 2024 [18]. Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated as **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 550.00**, benefiting from a broad product portfolio and diverse client base [11]. - **AMEC**: Also rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 300.00**, recognized for its technology and market position [12]. - **Piotech**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 280.00**, noted for its innovation in advanced packaging [13]. - **AMAT**: Positive outlook with a target price of **$210.00**, driven by secular WFE growth and capital return [16]. - **ASML**: Rated **Market-Perform** with a target price of **EUR 700.00**, reflecting a cautious stance on growth relative to consensus [17]. Additional Observations - The **import data** indicates a shift in sourcing, with increased imports from **Singapore and Malaysia** as U.S. direct imports decline [34][40]. - The **market for cleaning equipment** remains competitive, with potential upside from panel-level packaging [15]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the WFE market in China, company-specific forecasts, and broader market dynamics.