23 March 2026 Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Juho Hwang +852 2123 2632 juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano +44 20 7762 1857 carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com China WFE Import Tracker (Jan & Feb 2026): YoY -23% but could be just monthly fluctuation due to CNY Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D. +852 2123 2654 qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D. +1 213 559 5917 stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com David Dai, CFA +852 2918 5704 david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Zheng Cui +852 2123 2694 zheng.cui@bernsteinsg.com We ...

Core Insights - KLA (KLAC) is poised to benefit from robust spending in the Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) market, which is projected to grow from approximately $110 billion in 2025 to the mid-$130 billion range in 2026, driven by demand for AI chips, advanced logic chips, and memory such as DRAM [1][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Semiconductor Process Control segment, which constitutes 91.1% of KLA's second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues, is experiencing increased demand for semiconductor manufacturing tools used in wafer fabrication facilities [2] - The exponential growth in demand for AI chips is leading semiconductor manufacturers to invest more in WFE equipment, thereby increasing the demand for KLA's process-control tools [3] - KLA's revenue from total systems reached $950 million in calendar 2025, marking a 70% year-over-year increase, primarily due to advanced packaging revenue growth and market share gains [4] Group 2: Financial Outlook - KLA anticipates third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $3.35 billion (+/- $150 million), reflecting a modestly weak product mix and challenges such as rising DRAM costs and supply constraints [5] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues is currently at $3.38 billion, indicating a 10.5% growth compared to the same quarter last year [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - KLA faces significant competition from ASML and Applied Materials, both of which are recognized for their process control offerings [6] - ASML is benefiting from sustained demand for AI and HPC chips, which supports its long-term growth outlook through high-margin service and upgrade revenues [7] - Applied Materials is leading in AI-driven semiconductor innovations and expects its wafer fabrication equipment businesses to grow rapidly in 2026 [8] Group 4: Valuation and Performance - KLA shares have increased by 102.6% over the past 12 months, significantly outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which grew by 32.4% [11] - KLA's stock is considered overvalued, with a forward 12-month price/sales ratio of 12.31X compared to the sector's 6.02X, and it holds a Value Score of F [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 earnings is $36.62 per share, reflecting a 10% growth from fiscal 2025 [15]

Core Insights - The performance was driven by strong demand in AI, foundry-logic, and memory sectors as customers accelerate node migrations and 3D scaling [1] Group 1: Demand and Growth - Management attributes growth to a differentiated materials engineering portfolio that addresses increasing complexity in leading-edge logic and advanced packaging [1] - Foundry-logic remains healthy at leading nodes, while the memory segment is recovering, particularly driven by DRAM and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) investments [1] Group 2: Operational Focus - The operational focus has shifted towards supply chain resiliency and productivity actions to improve gross margins as product mix normalizes [1] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Strategic positioning is centered on 'co-optimization' where deposition, etch, and CMP solutions are integrated to address gate-all-around and backside power challenges [1] - The company is leveraging its global footprint to navigate a mixed demand environment in China, balancing steady mature nodes against restricted leading-edge areas [1]

Core Insights - Applied Materials reported strong first-quarter results, driven by increased industry investments in AI computing and semiconductor technologies [4][7][9] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 FY2026 was $7.01 billion, a decrease of 2% compared to Q1 FY2025's $7.17 billion [5][7] - GAAP gross margin was 49.0%, while non-GAAP gross margin was 49.1%, showing slight improvements year-over-year [5][7] - Operating income on a GAAP basis was $1.83 billion (26.1% of net revenue), and on a non-GAAP basis, it was $2.11 billion (30.0% of net revenue) [2][5] - Net income increased by 71% to $2.03 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) rising 75% to $2.54 [5][7] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company generated $1.69 billion in cash from operations and returned $702 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends [3][5] - Non-GAAP free cash flow for the quarter was $1.04 billion, a 91% increase from $544 million in the previous year [5][34] Business Outlook - For Q2 FY2026, Applied expects total revenue of approximately $7.65 billion, with non-GAAP diluted EPS projected at $2.64 [9] - The semiconductor equipment business is anticipated to grow over 20% in the calendar year, driven by demand for advanced technologies [4][9] Segment Performance - Semiconductor Systems revenue was $5.14 billion, down from $5.60 billion in the previous year, with a gross margin of 54.3% [11][12] - Applied Global Services reported revenue of $1.56 billion, up from $1.35 billion, with a gross margin of 34.4% [13][12] Recent Developments - Samsung Electronics will join Applied's new EPIC Center in Silicon Valley, aimed at accelerating the commercialization of breakthrough technologies [6][12] - The company introduced new systems to enhance the performance of next-generation transistors, receiving awards for technology development and sustainability [12][19]

Core Viewpoint - Applied Materials, Inc. is gaining analyst support as it is positioned to benefit from multi-year semiconductor tailwinds, particularly in deposition and etch processes for advanced chips [1][4]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - KeyBanc Capital Markets raised its price target for Applied Materials from $285 to $380, maintaining an Overweight rating due to the company's diversified supplier position and potential benefits from increasing deposition and etch intensity [1]. - Barclays upgraded Applied Materials from Underweight to Overweight, citing expected AI-related spending as a significant factor for the semiconductor industry [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Analysts highlighted that Applied Materials is well-positioned to benefit from growing demands in conventional DRAM, which is considered a critical AI-related device facing scarcity [2]. - The firm anticipates steady growth in Applied Materials' Global Services area, predicting low double-digit revenue increases in fiscal years 2027 and 2028, driven by customers utilizing existing equipment at full capacity [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Despite its potential, Applied Materials has experienced less stock value growth compared to competitors like KLA Corporation and Lam Research, primarily due to its greater involvement in older technology nodes for customers in China and other regions [1]. - Concerns regarding competition from China have already been reflected in the stock's valuation, according to Barclays [4].

Summary of China Semiconductor Equipment Import Analysis Industry Overview - The report focuses on the semiconductor production equipment (SPE) industry in China, particularly analyzing import trends and demand dynamics in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing [1][4]. Key Highlights - **November 2025 SPE Imports**: Total SPE imports normalized to **US$2.1 billion**, reflecting a **10% YoY decrease** and a **29% MoM decline** from **US$2.98 billion** in October [1]. - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Performance**: Combined import demand for the first eleven months of 2025 reached **US$30.5 billion**, marking a **5% YoY increase** [1]. - **Regional Demand**: Shanghai and Beijing accounted for **67%** of total SPE imports in November, with Shanghai's imports at **US$902 million** (+179% YoY) and Beijing's at **US$525 million** (+41% YoY) [1]. Equipment Type Analysis - **Lithography Equipment**: - November litho imports totaled **US$707 million**, down **15% YoY** and **32% MoM**. However, litho accounted for **33%** of total imports, above the typical range of **20-25%** [2]. - Strong demand for litho suggests sustainable expansion activities in the long term [2]. - **Deposition Equipment**: Imports reached **US$414 million**, up **8% YoY**, driven by other deposition (+72% YoY) and CVD (+24% YoY) [2]. - **Etch Equipment**: Imports were **US$428 million**, down **32% YoY** [2]. Import Sources - The Netherlands and Japan were the top exporters to China, holding **29%** and **28%** market shares, respectively [2]. - Imports from the US accounted for only **4%** of total SPE imports [2]. Major Import Transactions - In November, Shanghai imported **nine litho tools** from the Netherlands for a total of **US$494 million** (average selling price of **US$55 million** per unit) [3]. - Accumulated litho imports from the Netherlands in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangdong reached **US$3.2 billion**, with Shanghai showing a **71% YoY increase** [3]. Future Outlook - **WFE Spending Projections**: Expected growth of **10%** in 2026 and **1%** in 2027, following an **8%** growth in 2025, driven by advanced logic and memory capacity expansion projects [4]. - **Top Picks**: NAURA is highlighted as a key buy, with buy ratings also on AMEC and ACMR Shanghai [4]. Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Include potential macroeconomic downturns, geopolitical tensions, and slower-than-expected R&D progress [48]. - **Upside Risks**: Faster-than-expected demand recovery and aggressive capex plans from domestic fabs could enhance market conditions [48]. Conclusion - The analysis indicates a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook for the semiconductor equipment sector in China, with significant regional demand and potential for growth in WFE spending, despite existing risks.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market, particularly imports to **China**. - The data indicates a **year-to-date (YTD)** increase of **7%** in WFE imports to China as of October 2025, reflecting strong demand in the region [2][34]. Import Data Highlights - **October 2025** WFE imports to China totaled **USD 3.23 billion**, showing a **month-over-month (MoM)** decrease of **35%** but a **year-over-year (YoY)** increase of **11%** [2][23]. - The **YTD total** for WFE imports reached **USD 32.2 billion**, maintaining a **YoY growth of 7%** [24]. - The largest segment of imports in October was **Lithography**, accounting for **USD 1.03 billion** (32% of total imports), with a **YoY increase of 90%** [24][57]. Equipment Type Performance - **Lithography**: MoM decrease of **25%**, YTD YoY decrease of **10%** [3][24]. - **Deposition**: MoM decrease of **42%**, YTD YoY increase of **13%** [3][24]. - **Dry Etch**: MoM decrease of **27%**, YTD YoY increase of **58%** [3][24]. - **Process Control**: MoM decrease of **66%**, YTD YoY increase of **11%** [3][24]. Regional Insights - The share of imports from **US, Malaysia, and Singapore** increased to **38%** YTD, up from **33%** last year, while Japan's share decreased to **23%** from **26%** [3][42]. - **Shanghai** and **Guangdong** accounted for **58%** of total imports YTD [3]. Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Expected to see **China sales** reach **EUR 2.55 billion** in Q4, up **9% sequentially** and **33% YoY**, driven by strong lithography imports [4][68]. - **LRCX**: Anticipated **China revenues** to decrease by **28% QoQ** in December, with China exposure at **32%** of total revenues [5][87]. - **AMAT**: Reported a **23% QoQ decline** in China revenues, with actual exposure at **29%**, lower than regression estimates [6][90]. - **TEL**: Projected a **17% YoY decline** in China revenue [8]. - **Screen**: Expected a significant **84% YoY decline** in China revenue [9]. Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 480.00**, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution in China [12]. - **AMEC**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 380.00**, recognized for its technology and market share gains [13]. - **Piotech**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 375.00**, noted for product innovation [14]. - **Tokyo Electron**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **¥39,400**, expected to gain market share [15]. - **Advantest**: Rated **Market-Perform** with a target price of **¥20,400**, benefiting from increased testing intensity [16]. Conclusion - The WFE market in China shows robust demand despite some month-over-month declines, with significant implications for major players in the semiconductor equipment sector. The data suggests a complex landscape with varying performance across different equipment types and companies, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the market.

Core Insights - KLA Corporation (NASDAQ:KLAC) is highlighted as one of the best semiconductor equipment stocks to buy, with shares gaining over 89% year-to-date [1] - The company has received mixed analyst attention, with Barclays upgrading the stock to Overweight and raising the price target significantly from $700 to $1,200, citing insulation from declines in Chinese revenues [2] - KLA's fiscal first-quarter earnings report showed strong performance, with EPS of $8.81 and revenue of $3.21 billion, surpassing analyst expectations [3] Analyst Ratings - Barclays upgraded KLA Corporation from Equalweight to Overweight, reflecting confidence in the company's resilience against market fluctuations [2] - In contrast, Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equalweight, adjusting the price target to $1,093 from $928 [3] Financial Performance - KLA Corporation reported fiscal first-quarter earnings of $8.81 per share and revenue of $3.21 billion, exceeding analyst estimates of $8.60 and $3.17 billion respectively [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment - **Focus**: Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) imports to China Core Insights and Arguments - **August 2025 WFE Imports**: Total imports reached USD 3,010 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 12% but a month-over-month decrease of 20% [2][25] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Year-to-date imports are up 3% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential flat year overall [2][25] - **Lithography Segment Growth**: Lithography imports grew by 55% year-over-year in August, while other segments remained mostly flat [3] - **Vendor Performance**: U.S. vendors (including Malaysia and Singapore) captured approximately 38% of the market share, up from 33% in 2024, driven by Malaysia's increased share [3] - **Japan's Market Share**: Japan's share of WFE imports remains weak at 24% year-to-date, down from an average of 26% last year, due to unfavorable foreign exchange conditions and delayed purchases [3] Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Estimated China lithography imports for Q3 at EUR 2.17 billion, a 44% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 22% decrease year-over-year. China sales are expected to represent 38% of overall system revenue, up from 27% in Q2 [4][66] - **LRCX (Lam Research)**: Predicted a 14% increase in China revenues for Q3, with China exposure expected to be around 40% of total revenues [5][79] - **AMAT (Applied Materials)**: Anticipated a 12% decrease in China revenues for Q4, with China exposure around 33% of total revenues [6][88] - **TEL (Tokyo Electron)**: Expected a 12% year-over-year increase and a 23% quarter-over-quarter increase in China revenue [8] - **Kokusai**: Projected a significant increase in China revenue, up 58% year-over-year and 54% quarter-over-quarter [9] - **Screen**: Expected a decline in China revenue, down 11% year-over-year but up 16% quarter-over-quarter [10] - **Advantest**: Anticipated a further decline in China revenue, down 41% year-over-year and 35% quarter-over-quarter [11] Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 450.00, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution in China [13] - **AMEC**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 300.00, recognized for its technology and market position [14] - **Piotech**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 300.00, noted for product innovation and market share gains [15] - **AMAT**: Positive outlook on WFE growth, driven by market expansion and capital returns [18] - **LRCX**: Supportive commentary for CY25, indicating a potential NAND upgrade cycle [19] - **ASML**: Cautious stance on growth, with revenue forecasts aligning with lower guidance [20] Additional Important Insights - **China's Role in WFE Market**: China is increasingly significant in the global WFE market, with global vendors capturing about 84% of the market share in 2024 [21] - **Import Trends**: The data indicates a shift in production for U.S. vendors, with increased imports from Singapore and Malaysia [38][46] - **Lithography Imports**: The share of lithography imports from the Netherlands has increased significantly since 2023, reflecting changes in supply chain dynamics [60][62] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the semiconductor capital equipment industry, company-specific forecasts, and broader market trends.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, specifically the **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** imports to China for July 2025, which reached a record high for the year at **USD 3,761 million**, reflecting a **10% year-over-year (YoY)** and **11% month-over-month (MoM)** increase, with year-to-date (YTD) imports up **2% YoY** [2][27][26]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Dry Etch Segment Performance**: The Dry Etch segment showed significant growth, with imports totaling **USD 755 million**, marking a **30% MoM** and **232% YoY** increase. Notably, imports from Malaysia nearly doubled MoM to **USD 300 million** [3][28]. - **Lithography Weakness**: The Lithography segment continues to exhibit weakness, potentially indicating a normalization after previous strong demand. However, fluctuations suggest that this may be temporary, with expectations for a rebound in the second half of 2025 [3][34]. - **Regional Import Dynamics**: The import share by region indicates that the U.S. and Singapore combined account for **42%**, while Japan's share has decreased to **22%** from an average of **26%** last year. This decline is attributed to the lack of favorable foreign exchange conditions for Japanese vendors and a shift in purchasing priorities towards U.S. equipment [4][39]. - **Provincial Import Trends**: The largest buyers of WFE have shifted from Guangdong (21%) to Shanghai (32%) in July, suggesting a potential for sustained strength in these regions into the second half of 2025 and beyond [5][27]. Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Projected sales in China for Q3CY25 are estimated at **EUR 1.51 billion**, reflecting a **46% YoY decline** but flat compared to the previous quarter. The monthly import data is noted to be quite variable [6][65]. - **LRCX (Lam Research)**: Expected to see a **14% QoQ increase** in China revenues for the September quarter, with China exposure estimated to be in the high 30s percentage of total revenues [7][81]. - **AMAT (Applied Materials)**: Reported a **44% QoQ increase** in China revenues, aligning with regression analysis predictions of a **53% increase** [8][90]. - **Kokusai**: Anticipated to see a **41% YoY** and **37% QoQ increase** in China revenue, with a significant contribution expected in the September quarter [12]. - **Advantest**: Projected to experience a **38% YoY** and **32% QoQ decline** in China revenue, indicating potential challenges ahead [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The overall WFE market in China is becoming increasingly significant, with global vendors still capturing approximately **84%** of the market share in 2024. The data on imports provides critical insights into demand trends [23]. - **Investment Implications**: Companies like NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech are positioned favorably due to their broad product portfolios and domestic market leadership, benefiting from the ongoing WFE domestic substitution in China [15][16][17]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The overall sentiment suggests that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the long-term growth trajectory for the WFE market in China remains positive, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor capital equipment industry, particularly in relation to WFE imports to China.