​ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) is one of the Best Non-US Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML) has surged more than 32.86% and Wall Street maintains a positive outlook, suggesting further upside. ​Recently, on December 11, Bernstein analyst David Dai CFA maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a €800 price target. Earlier, on December 3, Didier Scemama from Bank of America Securities reiterated a Buy rating on the stock and also raised the price target from $1,092 to ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** market, particularly imports to **China**. - The data indicates a **year-to-date (YTD)** increase of **7%** in WFE imports to China as of October 2025, reflecting strong demand in the region [2][34]. Import Data Highlights - **October 2025** WFE imports to China totaled **USD 3.23 billion**, showing a **month-over-month (MoM)** decrease of **35%** but a **year-over-year (YoY)** increase of **11%** [2][23]. - The **YTD total** for WFE imports reached **USD 32.2 billion**, maintaining a **YoY growth of 7%** [24]. - The largest segment of imports in October was **Lithography**, accounting for **USD 1.03 billion** (32% of total imports), with a **YoY increase of 90%** [24][57]. Equipment Type Performance - **Lithography**: MoM decrease of **25%**, YTD YoY decrease of **10%** [3][24]. - **Deposition**: MoM decrease of **42%**, YTD YoY increase of **13%** [3][24]. - **Dry Etch**: MoM decrease of **27%**, YTD YoY increase of **58%** [3][24]. - **Process Control**: MoM decrease of **66%**, YTD YoY increase of **11%** [3][24]. Regional Insights - The share of imports from **US, Malaysia, and Singapore** increased to **38%** YTD, up from **33%** last year, while Japan's share decreased to **23%** from **26%** [3][42]. - **Shanghai** and **Guangdong** accounted for **58%** of total imports YTD [3]. Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Expected to see **China sales** reach **EUR 2.55 billion** in Q4, up **9% sequentially** and **33% YoY**, driven by strong lithography imports [4][68]. - **LRCX**: Anticipated **China revenues** to decrease by **28% QoQ** in December, with China exposure at **32%** of total revenues [5][87]. - **AMAT**: Reported a **23% QoQ decline** in China revenues, with actual exposure at **29%**, lower than regression estimates [6][90]. - **TEL**: Projected a **17% YoY decline** in China revenue [8]. - **Screen**: Expected a significant **84% YoY decline** in China revenue [9]. Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 480.00**, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution in China [12]. - **AMEC**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 380.00**, recognized for its technology and market share gains [13]. - **Piotech**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **CNY 375.00**, noted for product innovation [14]. - **Tokyo Electron**: Rated **Outperform** with a target price of **¥39,400**, expected to gain market share [15]. - **Advantest**: Rated **Market-Perform** with a target price of **¥20,400**, benefiting from increased testing intensity [16]. Conclusion - The WFE market in China shows robust demand despite some month-over-month declines, with significant implications for major players in the semiconductor equipment sector. The data suggests a complex landscape with varying performance across different equipment types and companies, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the market.

Core Insights - ASML Holding N.V. is recognized as a significant player in the semiconductor equipment market, particularly in the context of AI stocks, with a maintained Buy rating and a price target of €986.00 from BofA Securities following a meeting with company leadership [1] Industry Summary - Demand in the DRAM market is currently exceeding supply, with expectations for strong orders in the upcoming quarters, particularly for 2027 capacity additions [2][6] - The development of 2nm logic capacity is projected to continue through 2026-2027, indicating ongoing advancements in semiconductor technology [2][6] - High-NA technology is progressing, although some stitching-related issues remain unresolved; volume orders are anticipated to begin in late 2026 or early 2027, with revenue recognition expected in 2028-2029 [2][6] Company Summary - ASML anticipates a significant decline in sales in China for 2026, projecting a 14% year-over-year decrease, despite foundry and memory fabrication plants operating at full capacity [3][6] - Recovery potential in the Chinese market is expected in 2027, as both memory and logic manufacturers may initiate new fabrication projects [3][6] - The company develops and sells advanced semiconductor equipment, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems for chip manufacturing [3]

Core Viewpoint - ASML Holding N.V. has been downgraded to "Neutral" by New Street due to concerns about its growth prospects beyond 2026, despite strong near-term demand driven by AI [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - ASML develops and sells advanced semiconductor equipment, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems for chip manufacturing [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The firm warns of weak growth prospects for ASML, even though there is robust near-term demand for AI, with AI capital expenditures expected to triple by 2030, necessitating an estimated $130 billion in cumulative wafer fab equipment spending [2]. - New Street anticipates "peak acceleration this year and peak spending next year," leading to a weak outlook for ASML beyond 2026, citing near-term uncertainty and valuations significantly above historic averages [3].

Core Viewpoint - ASML Holding N.V. is gaining attention as a trending AI stock, with HSBC raising its price target to EUR 1,018 from EUR 809 while maintaining a Buy rating ahead of the company's September quarter results [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Expectations - The firm anticipates ASML's September quarter results and December quarter guidance to align with expectations, with management likely to discuss demand trends extending into 2026 [2][3]. - ASML is projected to achieve 6% revenue growth in 2026, with revenue and operating income estimates 3%-5% above consensus forecasts [2][3]. - The analysis indicates that ASML requires EUR 7.8 billion in orders in the second half of 2025 to meet forecasts, with September quarter orders of approximately EUR 4 billion viewed as supportive of 2026 expectations [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand Trends - Recent positive newsflow supports the view that ASML can deliver revenue growth in 2026, shifting the narrative from no growth to growth, which may lead to a valuation re-rating [3]. - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand signals and DRAM capacity expansion, contributing to overall optimism regarding its stock performance [2][3].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment - **Focus**: Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE) imports to China Core Insights and Arguments - **August 2025 WFE Imports**: Total imports reached USD 3,010 million, showing a year-over-year increase of 12% but a month-over-month decrease of 20% [2][25] - **Year-to-Date Performance**: Year-to-date imports are up 3% compared to the previous year, indicating a potential flat year overall [2][25] - **Lithography Segment Growth**: Lithography imports grew by 55% year-over-year in August, while other segments remained mostly flat [3] - **Vendor Performance**: U.S. vendors (including Malaysia and Singapore) captured approximately 38% of the market share, up from 33% in 2024, driven by Malaysia's increased share [3] - **Japan's Market Share**: Japan's share of WFE imports remains weak at 24% year-to-date, down from an average of 26% last year, due to unfavorable foreign exchange conditions and delayed purchases [3] Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Estimated China lithography imports for Q3 at EUR 2.17 billion, a 44% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 22% decrease year-over-year. China sales are expected to represent 38% of overall system revenue, up from 27% in Q2 [4][66] - **LRCX (Lam Research)**: Predicted a 14% increase in China revenues for Q3, with China exposure expected to be around 40% of total revenues [5][79] - **AMAT (Applied Materials)**: Anticipated a 12% decrease in China revenues for Q4, with China exposure around 33% of total revenues [6][88] - **TEL (Tokyo Electron)**: Expected a 12% year-over-year increase and a 23% quarter-over-quarter increase in China revenue [8] - **Kokusai**: Projected a significant increase in China revenue, up 58% year-over-year and 54% quarter-over-quarter [9] - **Screen**: Expected a decline in China revenue, down 11% year-over-year but up 16% quarter-over-quarter [10] - **Advantest**: Anticipated a further decline in China revenue, down 41% year-over-year and 35% quarter-over-quarter [11] Investment Implications - **NAURA**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 450.00, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution in China [13] - **AMEC**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 300.00, recognized for its technology and market position [14] - **Piotech**: Rated as outperform with a target price of CNY 300.00, noted for product innovation and market share gains [15] - **AMAT**: Positive outlook on WFE growth, driven by market expansion and capital returns [18] - **LRCX**: Supportive commentary for CY25, indicating a potential NAND upgrade cycle [19] - **ASML**: Cautious stance on growth, with revenue forecasts aligning with lower guidance [20] Additional Important Insights - **China's Role in WFE Market**: China is increasingly significant in the global WFE market, with global vendors capturing about 84% of the market share in 2024 [21] - **Import Trends**: The data indicates a shift in production for U.S. vendors, with increased imports from Singapore and Malaysia [38][46] - **Lithography Imports**: The share of lithography imports from the Netherlands has increased significantly since 2023, reflecting changes in supply chain dynamics [60][62] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the semiconductor capital equipment industry, company-specific forecasts, and broader market trends.

Group 1 - ASML Holding N.V. is recognized as a high growth mega cap stock, with a recent stake increase by SCS Capital Management LLC, purchasing 706 shares valued at $468,000 [1] - The company announced a €1.3 billion investment in Mistral AI, becoming the largest shareholder and forming a strategic collaboration to enhance its R&D operations and product offerings [2] - ASML's 5-year return has surpassed the market's return by 72.93%, indicating strong performance despite recent weak quarters [3] Group 2 - ASML is a Netherlands-based provider of lithography solutions for advanced semiconductor equipment systems, founded in 1984 [4] - The company is noted for its core offerings, which include lithography, metrology, and inspection systems [4]

Group 1 - ASML Holding N.V. is recognized as a prominent AI stock on Wall Street, with Barclays analyst Simon Coles raising the price target to EUR680.00 from EUR650.00 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating [1] - The company has experienced years of double-digit growth, but it may face minimal growth for the second consecutive year due to uncertainties related to customer dynamics [1] - ASML specializes in developing and selling advanced semiconductor equipment, including lithography, metrology, and inspection systems for chip manufacturing [2] Group 2 - While ASML is acknowledged as a potential investment, there are other AI stocks that may offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk [3] - The report suggests that certain undervalued AI stocks could benefit from Trump-era tariffs and the trend of onshoring [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, specifically the **Wafer Fabrication Equipment (WFE)** imports to China for July 2025, which reached a record high for the year at **USD 3,761 million**, reflecting a **10% year-over-year (YoY)** and **11% month-over-month (MoM)** increase, with year-to-date (YTD) imports up **2% YoY** [2][27][26]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Dry Etch Segment Performance**: The Dry Etch segment showed significant growth, with imports totaling **USD 755 million**, marking a **30% MoM** and **232% YoY** increase. Notably, imports from Malaysia nearly doubled MoM to **USD 300 million** [3][28]. - **Lithography Weakness**: The Lithography segment continues to exhibit weakness, potentially indicating a normalization after previous strong demand. However, fluctuations suggest that this may be temporary, with expectations for a rebound in the second half of 2025 [3][34]. - **Regional Import Dynamics**: The import share by region indicates that the U.S. and Singapore combined account for **42%**, while Japan's share has decreased to **22%** from an average of **26%** last year. This decline is attributed to the lack of favorable foreign exchange conditions for Japanese vendors and a shift in purchasing priorities towards U.S. equipment [4][39]. - **Provincial Import Trends**: The largest buyers of WFE have shifted from Guangdong (21%) to Shanghai (32%) in July, suggesting a potential for sustained strength in these regions into the second half of 2025 and beyond [5][27]. Company-Specific Insights - **ASML**: Projected sales in China for Q3CY25 are estimated at **EUR 1.51 billion**, reflecting a **46% YoY decline** but flat compared to the previous quarter. The monthly import data is noted to be quite variable [6][65]. - **LRCX (Lam Research)**: Expected to see a **14% QoQ increase** in China revenues for the September quarter, with China exposure estimated to be in the high 30s percentage of total revenues [7][81]. - **AMAT (Applied Materials)**: Reported a **44% QoQ increase** in China revenues, aligning with regression analysis predictions of a **53% increase** [8][90]. - **Kokusai**: Anticipated to see a **41% YoY** and **37% QoQ increase** in China revenue, with a significant contribution expected in the September quarter [12]. - **Advantest**: Projected to experience a **38% YoY** and **32% QoQ decline** in China revenue, indicating potential challenges ahead [13]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The overall WFE market in China is becoming increasingly significant, with global vendors still capturing approximately **84%** of the market share in 2024. The data on imports provides critical insights into demand trends [23]. - **Investment Implications**: Companies like NAURA, AMEC, and Piotech are positioned favorably due to their broad product portfolios and domestic market leadership, benefiting from the ongoing WFE domestic substitution in China [15][16][17]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The overall sentiment suggests that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the long-term growth trajectory for the WFE market in China remains positive, driven by domestic demand and technological advancements [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor capital equipment industry, particularly in relation to WFE imports to China.