January 16, 2026 08:34 AM GMT We are raising our CY26 and CY27 estimates for ADI and NXP above Street by 4%/3% for ADI and 5%/3% for NXP, respectively. While companies are yet to call a demand inflection, we are hearing more consistent indications of stabilization, with auto demand increasingly set to converge with other end markets, supporting broader recovery momentum. Both stocks have remained our key OWs this upcycle, and while the group as a whole should benefit from a broad-based pickup, we believe st ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, reaching a size of $700.9 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% driven by demand in AI, cloud infrastructure, and advanced consumer electronics [1] - The electronic industry maintains a bullish rating, anticipating a comprehensive recovery in the semiconductor industry by 2025, with an accelerated optimization of the competitive landscape and a continuous rebound in profit cycles and corporate profits [1] - Key materials for semiconductors are becoming a focus for domestic innovation, enhancing the self-sufficiency of the industry chain, and the overall development outlook for the industry is optimistic, with companies likely to benefit from market recovery and industrial upgrades [1] Group 2 - The U.S. tariff policy is accelerating the fragmentation of global supply chains, significantly impacting the global manufacturing sector, particularly the semiconductor industry [2] - The China Semiconductor Association has revised the rules for origin recognition, which favors the domestic replacement of RF/analog chips and increases export costs for U.S. semiconductor companies, reinforcing domestic manufacturers' commitment to choosing local supply chains [2] - Breakthroughs in core technology platforms are enabling mass supply of automotive-grade products, allowing companies to capture incremental market space amid global industrial restructuring [2]