Accessible version Asia Fund Manager Survey The pendulum is swinging back Growth recovery. Over the past six months, investor sentiment has followed a classic trajectory: euphoria, panic, and finally recovery (see Risk-Love: Dancing with the bulls). The latest FMS data corroborates this emerging optimism. The improved growth outlook stems from investor confidence in swift trade resolutions and coordinated global monetary easing (~80% of the 34 major central banks are cutting rates). Currently, a net 46% ant ...

Core Insights - Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office has been active in the first quarter of 2025, adding new positions and increasing existing ones [3][4] Group 1: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) - TSMC was one of Druckenmiller's largest bets, with a 457% increase in shares to 491,265 [7] - The stock experienced a decline but rebounded due to strong first-quarter results, with revenue up 41.6% year over year and earnings per share increasing by 60% [8] - Despite a slight dip in sales from the previous quarter, demand from major customers suggests potential for modest growth [9] - TSMC's largest customer, Nvidia, saw Microsoft increase its capital expenditures by 53% year over year, indicating strong demand in the semiconductor sector [10] Group 2: Flutter Entertainment - Druckenmiller increased his position in Flutter Entertainment by purchasing over 1 million shares, making it the 11th-largest holding in the portfolio [11] - Flutter's FanDuel brand grew monthly users by 11% year over year to 4.3 million, capturing a 43% market share in the U.S. sports betting market [11] - The company launched a cross-promotion for FanDuel, boosting monthly iGaming users in the U.S. above 1 million, with first-quarter revenue from iGaming growing by 32% year over year to $472 million [12] Group 3: Docusign - Druckenmiller initiated a new position in Docusign valued at $87.5 million, making it the 10th largest position in the portfolio [14] - Docusign's revenue grew by 7% year over year, with subscriptions accounting for 97% of first-quarter revenue [14] - The company reported a gross margin of 78.9% and free cash flow of $232.1 million, representing 33% of total revenue [15]

ab 12 May 2025 Global Research Infineon Technologies AG Further signs an upcycle is incoming. Buy. Conservative guide with idiosyncratic drivers still largely intact Infineon has conservatively baked in some tariff impact into its new FY'25 guide, which we think increases margin for error. It also raises the chance of upgrades through the year when the cycle turns, of which we see initial signs, with revenues up y-o-y for the first time in two years in FQ325. With the evidence of the cycle turning along wit ...

Core Viewpoint - Texas Instruments reported a strong first-quarter performance that exceeded analyst expectations, indicating a potential recovery in the analog semiconductor sector after a challenging period [1][16]. Financial Performance - The company achieved Q1 revenue of $4.07 billion, an 11.1% year-over-year increase, surpassing the consensus estimate of $3.91 billion by 4.1% [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) were reported at $1.28, significantly exceeding the analyst consensus of $1.06 by 20.2% [4]. - The Analog segment drove revenue growth with $3.21 billion, a 13% increase year-over-year, while the Embedded Processing segment generated $647 million, reflecting a slight 1% decrease [5][6]. Guidance and Outlook - For Q2, Texas Instruments projects revenue between $4.17 billion and $4.53 billion, with a midpoint of $4.35 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth rate of approximately 13.8% [7][8]. - The Q2 EPS guidance ranges from $1.21 to $1.47, with a midpoint of $1.34, representing an 11.9% increase over previous estimates [8]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, Texas Instruments' shares rose approximately 6%, indicating strong investor interest and a shift in sentiment from bearish to extremely bullish [12][13]. Strategic Investments - The company is investing heavily in capital expenditures, totaling $4.7 billion over the trailing twelve months, to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and secure long-term competitiveness [14][15]. - Despite the current negative free cash flow of $14 million, an improvement from the previous year's negative $231 million, the strategic investments are expected to yield future benefits [6][15]. Industry Context - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, characterized by inventory adjustments and weakening demand, particularly in industrial and automotive sectors [2][3]. - Insights from management suggest that the semiconductor cycle may be at its lowest point, with indications of improving demand trends and potential inventory replenishment among customers [9][10].

Analog Devices (ADI) Q1 2025 Earnings Call February 19, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Michael Lucarelli - VP, IRVincent Roche - CEO & Chair of the Board of DirectorsRichard Puccio - Executive VP & CFOVivek Arya - Managing DirectorTore Svanberg - Managing DirectorJoshua Buchalter - Director - Equity Research Conference Call Participants Joseph Moore - AnalystChristopher Danely - AnalystChristopher Rolland - Senior Equity AnalystHarsh Kumar - Managing Director & Senior Research Analyst Operator Good m ...