Key Takeaways UMC's foundries in Taiwan, Singapore and Japan operated at healthy utilization rates in 2025. A focus on mature and specialty process nodes has helped UMC navigate chip industry volatility. Zacks expects UMC earnings to grow 11.32% next year after a projected 8.62% decline in 2025.In 2025, United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) , part of the Zacks Electronics – Semiconductors industry, has steadily strengthened its position in the global semiconductor landscape, building on its reputation ...

业 及 产 业 2025 年 07 月 13 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 杨海晏 A0230518070003 yanghy@swsresearch.com 李天奇 A0230522080001 litq@swsresearch.com 袁航 A0230521100002 yuanhang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 陈俊兆 A0230124100001 chenjz@swsresearch.com 杨紫璇 A0230524070005 yangzx@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈俊兆 (8621)23297818× chenjz@swsresearch.com AI 算力高景气持续向上 看好 ——25 年 6 月暨 2 季度台股电子板块景气跟踪 图 1：台股电子半导体制造板块 2025-06 营收情况 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 电子 - ⚫ AI 领域：持续高景气，信骅、台光电、纬创等多个环节供应商月营收创历史新高。25 年 6 月信骅营收 ...

Core Insights - Investors in the Electronics - Semiconductors sector should consider United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) and Infineon Technologies AG (IFNNY) for potential undervalued stock opportunities [1] Valuation Metrics - UMC has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a stronger earnings outlook compared to IFNNY, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3] - UMC's forward P/E ratio is 14.53, significantly lower than IFNNY's forward P/E of 28.49, suggesting UMC may be undervalued [5] - UMC's PEG ratio is 1.65, while IFNNY's PEG ratio is 1.93, indicating UMC's expected EPS growth is more favorable [5] - UMC's P/B ratio stands at 1.63, compared to IFNNY's P/B of 3.23, further supporting UMC's valuation advantage [6] - UMC has received a Value grade of A, while IFNNY has a Value grade of C, highlighting UMC's superior valuation metrics [6] Earnings Outlook - UMC is noted for its improving earnings outlook, which enhances its attractiveness as a value investment [7]

Core Viewpoint - United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) is making significant strides in advanced packaging technology, securing a major contract with Qualcomm and developing its own high-end interposer, which has been validated by Qualcomm, indicating a countdown to mass production [1][2]. Group 1: Advanced Packaging Developments - UMC's collaboration with Qualcomm focuses on advanced packaging for high-performance computing applications, particularly in AI PCs, automotive, and AI server markets, with initial production expected in Q1 2026 [1][2]. - The first batch of interposers with a capacitance of 1500nF/mm² has passed Qualcomm's electrical testing, showcasing UMC's capability in advanced packaging [1][2]. - UMC's advanced packaging technology, including 2.5D and 3D packaging, relies heavily on interposer capacitors, which are crucial for connecting stacked or side-by-side chips [2]. Group 2: Competitive Positioning - UMC's entry into advanced packaging allows it to differentiate itself from competitors in the mature process wafer foundry market, particularly against the backdrop of low-cost competition from the "red supply chain" [2]. - The partnership with Qualcomm not only involves orders but also includes Qualcomm purchasing equipment to be placed in UMC's facilities, indicating a deep and trusting collaboration [2]. Group 3: Process Technology Advancements - UMC is advancing its wafer foundry business by developing high-voltage process technologies, including a 14nm FinFET embedded high-voltage process platform, and is exploring collaboration with Intel to extend its process capabilities from 12nm to 6nm [3][4]. - UMC invested NT$15.6 billion in R&D last year, focusing on process technologies required for 5G communications, AI, IoT, and automotive electronics, with progress in special processes and 3D IC advanced packaging [3]. Group 4: Performance Enhancements - The 12nm FinFET process technology platform offers significant improvements over the 14nm technology, achieving a 10% performance increase and a 20% reduction in power consumption, while also reducing chip area by over 10% [4]. - UMC's advancements in process technology enhance its cost competitiveness and position in the semiconductor market [4].

Core Viewpoint - United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) is exploring the feasibility of entering advanced chip production, specifically targeting 6nm technology, to enhance its growth potential in a market dominated by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Developments - UMC is assessing future growth drivers, including the potential production of 6nm chips suitable for advanced connectivity applications and AI accelerators [1]. - The company is considering expanding its collaboration with Intel in 12nm chip production, potentially incorporating 6nm technology into this partnership [1][2]. - UMC's CFO indicated that substantial progress in advanced manufacturing technology will depend on partnerships to alleviate financial burdens [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - UMC is currently the fourth largest chip foundry globally, with a market share of 4.7%, following TSMC, Samsung, and SMIC [3][4]. - As of Q1 2025, UMC's revenue decreased by 5.8%, reflecting competitive pressures from local Chinese manufacturers and the rise of SMIC, which has overtaken UMC to become the third largest foundry [2][3]. - The global foundry market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies accounting for 90.2% of the market share [3]. Group 3: Financial Considerations and Challenges - Entering the 6nm production space may require significant capital investment, estimated at around $5 billion, which poses a challenge for UMC [7]. - UMC's capital expenditure for the current year is projected to be $1.8 billion, significantly lower than SMIC's ongoing expenditure of over $7 billion [7]. - The company is exploring a "light asset" model to share the financial burden of new technology investments with partners [7]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - By 2030, mainland China is expected to lead global semiconductor foundry capacity, potentially holding 30% of the market, which adds competitive pressure on UMC [5]. - The demand for mature semiconductor products is rebounding slower than expected, prompting UMC to seek new growth opportunities [7]. - The transition to advanced chip production is complicated by the need for cutting-edge equipment, such as EUV lithography machines, which are costly and may impact production quality if older technologies are used [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Semiconductors and Semiconductor Capital Equipment Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Global Semiconductor Capital Equipment** industry, particularly the implications of potential changes in U.S. export controls affecting shipments to China [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Control Waivers**: Since October 2022, U.S. semiconductor capital equipment (semicap) companies have faced increasing restrictions on shipments to China. Non-Chinese customers with fabs in China have been receiving waivers, but the U.S. Commerce Department is considering canceling these waivers, which would require licenses for shipments [2][3]. - **Impact on Multinational Companies**: Major multinationals with significant capacity in China include **Samsung**, **SK hynix**, **TSMC**, and **UMC**. For instance, SK hynix has 35% of its DRAM capacity in China, while Samsung has 30% of its NAND capacity there [4][5]. - **WFE Spending**: The total WFE (Wafer Fabrication Equipment) spending by non-Chinese companies in China is projected to be around **$2 billion** in 2024, which is only about **4%** of the total WFE deployed in China and less than **2%** of the global WFE market estimated at **$108 billion** [5][6][33][37]. - **Memory Chip Exposure**: Memory chips are seen as the most exposed segment, with China-based fabs accounting for **10%** of global DRAM and **15%** of NAND capacity. However, case-by-case approvals for licenses may mitigate immediate impacts [6][39]. Additional Important Insights - **Deglobalization Trends**: Japanese semiconductor capital equipment companies are expected to benefit from deglobalization trends, as they can serve both U.S. and Chinese markets. Companies like **Tokyo Electron** and **Kokusai** may gain from increased demand for etching and deposition equipment [7]. - **Investment Implications**: - **AMAT (Applied Materials)**: Rated as Outperform with a target price of **$210.00**, driven by secular WFE growth and capital return strategies [10]. - **LRCX (Lam Research)**: Also rated Outperform with a target of **$95.00**, supported by a potential NAND upgrade cycle [10]. - **Tokyo Electron**: Rated Outperform with a target of **¥33,800**, expected to gain market share due to competitive pricing [11]. - **ASML**: Rated Market-Perform with a target of **€700.00**, reflecting a cautious outlook on growth relative to consensus estimates [14]. - **Domestic Chinese Companies**: Companies like **NAURA**, **AMEC**, and **Piotech** are rated Outperform, benefiting from domestic WFE substitution trends in China [15][16][17]. Conclusion - The semiconductor capital equipment industry is facing significant regulatory changes that could impact multinational companies operating in China. While immediate effects may be limited, the long-term implications of export controls and deglobalization trends will shape the competitive landscape. Investment opportunities exist in both established players and emerging domestic companies in China.

Core Insights - The article compares United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) and Infineon Technologies AG (IFNNY) to determine which stock is more attractive to value investors [1][3] Valuation Metrics - UMC has a forward P/E ratio of 15.32, while IFNNY has a forward P/E of 26.33 [5] - UMC's PEG ratio is 1.74, compared to IFNNY's PEG ratio of 1.78 [5] - UMC's P/B ratio is 1.72, whereas IFNNY has a P/B of 2.92 [6] Analyst Outlook - UMC currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a more favorable earnings estimate revision activity compared to IFNNY, which has a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3][7] - UMC's stronger estimate revision activity and more attractive valuation metrics suggest it is the superior option for value investors at this time [7] Value Grades - UMC has a Value grade of A, while IFNNY has a Value grade of C, reflecting UMC's better valuation metrics [6]

Core Viewpoint - UMC has gained investor favor due to its high dividend yield exceeding 6%, contrasting with TSMC's less than 2% yield, leading to a significant inflow of passive funds into UMC [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Performance - UMC's stock price has increased by 10% this year, while TSMC's has decreased by 1% [1]. - UMC is a key holding in Taiwan's top three high-dividend ETFs, which have attracted approximately $10 billion in inflows this year, making them some of the best-performing stock ETFs in the Asia-Pacific region [1][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The high-dividend ETF market in Taiwan has over $44 billion in assets under management, significantly influencing capital allocation in the Taiwanese stock market [4]. - UMC's appeal to conservative investors is bolstered by its low valuation and high liquidity, along with its partnership with Intel, which adds further investment value [4]. Group 3: Sustainability of Performance - Despite UMC's strong performance, indicators suggest that its upward trend may not be sustainable, with short-selling ratios reaching about 9%, indicating market concerns over its valuation [6]. - UMC's stock price has surpassed the average 12-month target price set by analysts, suggesting that market expectations may be fully priced in [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to grow by 21% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching $32.05 billion, despite a 5% quarter-on-quarter decline, indicating resilience in the industry amidst geopolitical uncertainties and supply chain adjustments [1][35]. Regional Summaries China Mainland - In Q1 2025, the revenue from the Chinese mainland reached $10.26 billion, maintaining its position as the largest single market globally, but showing a 14% quarter-on-quarter and 18% year-on-year decline, reflecting a "double drop" trend [4][5]. - The market share of the Chinese mainland in the overall semiconductor equipment sales shrank from 47% in the same period last year to 32% [5]. South Korea - South Korea's semiconductor equipment market saw a robust performance in Q1 2025, with revenues of $7.69 billion, marking a 24% quarter-on-quarter and 48% year-on-year increase, driven by a recovery in memory chips and significant investments from major manufacturers [8][10]. - The Korean government has implemented the "K-Semiconductor Strategy," providing substantial tax incentives and subsidies to boost the industry [9]. Taiwan - Taiwan's semiconductor equipment market experienced a remarkable growth of 203% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching $7.09 billion, fueled by expansion plans from leading companies like TSMC and UMC [11][14]. - TSMC's advanced process development and capacity expansion significantly contributed to the surge in equipment demand, with a focus on cutting-edge technologies [11][12]. North America - North America's equipment market revenue reached $2.93 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting a 41% quarter-on-quarter decline but a 55% year-on-year increase, indicating a "pulse-like" expansion pattern influenced by concentrated procurement in the previous quarter [15][16]. - The CHIPS Act's funding and Intel's production ramp-up are expected to support continued growth in the region [16]. Japan - Japan's semiconductor equipment market saw a 20% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies and capacity expansions, despite an 18% quarter-on-quarter decline due to seasonal fluctuations [18][19]. Europe - Europe's semiconductor equipment market faced a significant downturn, with a 54% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter decline, attributed to ineffective policy execution and reduced capital expenditures [20][21]. - The region's lack of competitive semiconductor manufacturing capabilities has exacerbated its market challenges, leading to a systemic decline in the industry [22][23]. Industry Trends - The semiconductor equipment market is undergoing structural changes, with high-end chip demand driven by AI applications maintaining price resilience, while mature process segments face oversupply issues [37][39]. - The overall industry is expected to enter an expansion phase in the latter half of 2025, supported by increased demand for advanced chips and a recovery in capacity utilization [38][39].

Core Insights - The global wafer foundry industry experienced a 5.4% quarter-over-quarter decline in total revenue for Q1 2025, amounting to $36.403 billion, but showed a significant year-over-year growth of 24.8% [1] - The traditional seasonal slowdown in the wafer foundry industry was somewhat mitigated this year due to uncertainties in international conditions prompting downstream customers to stock up inventory and China's ongoing trade-in policy [1] Industry Performance - Despite facing seasonal challenges, the wafer foundry industry demonstrated resilience, with expectations for revenue growth in Q2 2025 driven by the launch of new smartphone models and stable demand from AI and HPC sectors [4] - The top ten global wafer foundries accounted for 97% of the market share in Q1 2025, with a total revenue of $36.403 billion [2] Company Rankings - TSMC led the market with a revenue of $25.517 billion in Q1 2025, despite a 5.0% decline from Q4 2024, maintaining a market share of 67.6% [2] - Samsung's revenue fell by 11.3% to $2.893 billion, resulting in a market share of 7.7% [2] - SMIC reported a slight revenue increase of 1.8% to $2.247 billion, raising its market share to 6.0% [2] - Vanguard's capacity utilization was above average due to customer stockpiling, while Tower Semiconductor faced significant seasonal impacts and did not benefit from China's subsidy policies [4]