ab 1 July 2025 Global Research Memory Semis Monthly July '25 Edition: HBM supply / demand remains healthy HBM supply / demand to remain in check Investors often ask us whether the disconnect between our HBM supply forecasts (i.e., shipments from HBM vendors) and demand estimates (based upon end-consumption) should be cause for concern. For now, we do not believe so. HBM typically ships into consignment inventories at TSMC, ahead of the CoWoS process taking place. This then can last up to 2 months. The packa ...

S/D model update on silicon wafer, SiC substrate, GaN. China capacity and implications to global players As a global team, we review and refresh our S/D model across (1) silicon wafers, (2) SiC substrate, (3) GaN devices, and (4) IGBT (Exhibits 8, 10, 12, 32). Key conclusions: (1) Chinese in China: Local coverage (local production/ local demand) of 12-inch silicon wafer/ 6-inch SiC substrate to grow from 41%/ 80% in 2024 to 54%/ 87% in 2027E. (2) Pricing: 8-inch silicon wafer ASP to decline 10% CAGR in 2024 ...