Core Insights - Apple's smartphone shipments are projected to surpass Samsung's in 2025, marking the first time in over a decade that Apple will lead the global smartphone market [1][2] - Global smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 3.3% year over year in 2025, largely driven by Apple's performance [1] - Apple's market share is anticipated to reach 19.4% in 2025, while Samsung's share is expected to decline to 18.7% [2] Apple Analysis - iPhone shipments are forecasted to grow by 10% year over year in 2025, fueled by strong demand for the iPhone 17 series [1][3] - The replacement cycle for smartphones is at a critical point, with many consumers who bought devices during the COVID-19 pandemic now looking to upgrade [3] - A significant number of second-hand iPhones, approximately 358 million, were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, indicating a robust base of potential upgraders [3][5] Samsung Analysis - Samsung's shipments are projected to increase by 4.6% year over year, but the company will slip to second place in market share for the first time since 2011 [2][5] - Samsung's strategy to focus on the A series is expected to enhance its presence in emerging markets, while premium offerings will help maintain market share in mature markets [6] - The company is likely to face competition from Chinese manufacturers, who are expected to expand into higher-priced segments to improve profitability [6][7] Chinese Manufacturers - Chinese smartphone manufacturers are anticipated to rely more on overseas markets for growth and are diversifying their product offerings [6][7] - Their shipment rankings are expected to remain stable through 2029, supported by revenue diversification strategies [7]

Core Insights - Apple's smartphone shipments are projected to surpass Samsung's in 2025, marking the first time in over a decade that Apple will lead the global smartphone market [1][2] - Global smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 3.3% year over year in 2025, primarily driven by Apple's growth [1] - iPhone shipments are anticipated to rise by 10% year over year in 2025, fueled by demand for the iPhone 17 series [1][5] Apple - Apple's market share is projected to reach 19.4% in 2025, making it the leading smartphone manufacturer for the first time since 2011 [2] - The demand for iPhones is expected to be bolstered by consumers upgrading from smartphones purchased during the COVID-19 boom, with many entering their upgrade phase [6] - A significant number of second-hand iPhones, approximately 358 million, were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025, indicating a strong base of potential upgrades [6] Samsung - Samsung's shipments are expected to grow by 4.6% year over year, resulting in a market share of 18.7%, which will place it in second position for the first time in over a decade [5] - Samsung's strategic focus on the A series is anticipated to enhance its presence in emerging markets, while premium offerings are expected to help maintain market share in mature markets [7] Chinese Manufacturers - Chinese smartphone manufacturers are expected to increasingly rely on overseas markets for growth and will move into higher-priced segments to enhance profitability [10] - This diversification strategy is projected to stabilize their shipment rankings through 2029 [10]

Core Insights - Apple is projected to ship more smartphones than Samsung in 2025, marking the first time in 14 years that this has occurred [1][2] Shipment Projections - Apple is expected to ship approximately 243 million iPhone units in 2025, compared to Samsung's 235 million shipments [2] - This will result in Apple holding a 19.4% share of the global smartphone market, while Samsung's share will be 18.7% [2] Sales Performance - The iPhone 17 series, launched in September, has experienced a strong market reception, with sales in the U.S. during the first four weeks post-launch being 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series [3] - In China, sales of the iPhone 17 series during the same period were 18% higher than its predecessor [3] Market Dynamics - The increase in Apple's shipment outlook is attributed to a shift in the replacement cycle, as consumers who bought smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now looking to upgrade [4] - Samsung faces challenges in the low-to-mid tier smartphone market from Chinese competitors, which may hinder its ability to regain the top position [5]

Core Insights - Apple Inc is set to overtake Samsung Electronics and become the world's largest smartphone maker for the first time in over a decade, driven by the successful launch of the iPhone 17 series and a surge in consumer upgrades [1][4] Group 1: iPhone 17 Series Performance - The iPhone 17 models, launched in September, have achieved significant sales growth in both the United States and China, with double-digit year-over-year growth reported in both regions [2] - The iPhone 17 series, which includes four models, has attracted many consumers to upgrade their smartphones, particularly the iPhone Air, which is marketed as the world's thinnest iPhone [3] - The positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series is attributed to the replacement cycle reaching an inflection point, alongside rising sales of secondhand iPhones [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - iPhone shipments are projected to increase by 10% in 2025, while Samsung's shipments are expected to grow by only 4.6%, indicating a significant shift in market leadership [4] - The global smartphone market is anticipated to grow by 3.3% in 2025, with Apple expected to capture a market share of 19.4%, marking its first return to the No. 1 position since 2011 [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts forecast that Apple will maintain its position as the top phone seller through 2029, with upcoming products like a foldable iPhone and a budget-friendly iPhone 17e expected to sustain growth [7] - Apple reported that sales are growing faster than anticipated, with the holiday quarter projected to approach a record $140 billion in revenue [8]