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中美贸易紧张局势蔓延至软件领域-Greater China IT Services and Software-Trade Tensions Spread to Software
2025-10-13 15:12
Summary of Conference Call on Greater China IT Services and Software Industry Industry Overview - The focus is on the Greater China IT Services and Software sector, particularly in the context of trade tensions and software localization themes [1][3][4]. Key Points 1. **Impact of US Export Controls** - The US has announced export controls on critical software, particularly affecting areas like Electronic Design Automation (EDA) and industrial software [2]. - However, these controls are not expected to significantly improve the fundamentals of China's software industry, which is facing tight domestic budgets and macroeconomic deflation [4]. 2. **Software Localization Sentiment** - There is an anticipated positive stock market sentiment around the software localization theme (Xinchuang) for A shares and H shares, driven by southbound capital flows [3]. - This segment is currently under-owned by institutions due to poor business models and inconsistent earnings, indicating high beta and elasticity [3]. 3. **Current Market Dynamics** - Despite the push for software localization, many Chinese customers can continue using existing US software as long as it is locally deployed, reducing the urgency to switch [4]. - The Chinese government has been proactive in promoting software localization, leading to an increase in local vendors' market share over the past five years [4]. 4. **Potential Trade Negotiations** - The situation may evolve rapidly due to potential trade negotiations between the US and China, which could impact the software industry [5]. 5. **Related Companies** - Companies mentioned in relation to the software localization theme include Empyrean, Kingsoft Office, Yonyou, Baosight, and Kingdee [5]. - No stocks under this theme are currently rated as Overweight by Morgan Stanley [5]. Additional Insights - The report highlights that the software localization dynamics vary across different sub-markets, with specific players identified in the sector [10][12]. - The overall industry view remains cautious, reflecting the challenges posed by external trade policies and internal economic conditions [6]. - Analysts express concerns that the US export controls may not effectively address the core issues facing the industry, such as fiscal constraints and the availability of free alternatives [4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the Greater China IT Services and Software industry, focusing on the implications of US export controls, market sentiment, and the ongoing push for software localization.