计算机/软件开发 鼎捷软件（300378.SZ） 业绩平稳增长，AI 收入翻倍以上增长 2025 年 09 月 01 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/8/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 52.62 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 66.93/15.76 | | 总市值(亿元) | 142.81 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 141.75 | | 总股本(亿股) | 2.71 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 2.69 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 549.05 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 鼎捷数智 沪深300 相关研究报告 《品牌主张持续深化，AI 赋能前景可 期—公司信息更新报告》-2025.8.18 陈宝健（分析师） 李海强（分析师） chenbaojian@kysec.cn lihaiqiang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070003 智能制造领军厂商，维持"买入"评级 公司是国内领先的数智化转型与智能制造整合规划方案服务提 ...

鼎捷数智发布半年报，25H1 实现营收10.45 亿元（yoy+4.08%），归母净利4502.67 万元 （yoy+6.09%），其中Q2 实现营收6.21 亿元（yoy+3.92%），归母净利5335.97 万元（yoy+2.35%）。公 司营收稳健增长主要受益于AI业务持续放量，25H1 公司AI 业务收入同比+125.91%。我们认为，得益于 鼎捷雅典娜数智原生底座的数据能力与公司AI 产品矩阵的快速丰富，公司业绩有望实现加速成长，看 好公司在AI+工业场景的技术优势，维持"买入"。 AI 赋能业务营收增长，AI 产品持续迭代升级 25H1公司研发设计/数字化管理/生产控制/AIoT 业务营收分别为0.57、5.71、1.38、2.74 亿元，分别同比 +11.05%、+4.32%、+7.36%、+3.51%，研发设计及生产控制类业务放量充分受益于AI 技术的产品融 合。1）研发设计业务：公司发布业内首款融入AI 技术的PLM 产品全生命周期管理系统，通过多轮验 证、迭代，已获近百家客户签约、数十家客户成功部署，有效带动客单价提升；2）生产控制：公司将 AI 智能套件融入MES、WMS 等产品，实现业 ...

近年来，聚焦企业扩张产能及落地项目需求，泰山区着力引导项目向园区集聚，形成产业发展合力。通 过建设新型产业园区，着重创新构建研发核心区+智能制造示范区一体化、全产业链协同区+物流仓储 服务区一体化、产城融合化园区+智慧管理示范区一体化"三个一体化"建设，目前已建成泰山经济开发 区"泰山协同创新产业（300832）园"、省庄镇"高端智能电气产业园"，加快规划建设徐家楼"新能源装 备制造产业园"。依托鲁能电力喷漆喷砂车间和盛源粉体喷塑车间，建立共享车间，构建资源共享平 台，提供共享的喷涂及废气处理服务。同时依托盛华集团，规划建设2.8万平方米标准化厂房，引入喷 漆、喷塑、电镀等表面处理生产线，建设金属表面处理特色车间，为辖区内高端装备企业共享表面处理 服务，破解重复投资、污染治理难题。深挖产业链内、链链、区域间的协同发展，持续完善产业链条， 形成产业集聚效应，区内53家输变电产业企业建立了原材料供应、产品供销等合作关系。鲁能泰山电力 设备本地配套率达60%；泰开电力电子新增本地客户16个，新增本地供应商采购额2100万元；泰和集团 市内采购额达1.6亿元，采购成本降低11个百分点。在此基础上建立孵化中心，推动小微 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][14] Core Views - The company is a leading provider of digital transformation and smart manufacturing solutions in China, expected to benefit from the recovery of the domestic manufacturing sector and opportunities abroad, with AI capabilities opening up growth potential [4][6] - The company maintains its profit forecast, projecting net profits for 2025-2027 to be 201 million, 240 million, and 289 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.74, 0.88, and 1.07 yuan per share [4][9] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 74.8, 62.9, and 52.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][9] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 2,228 million yuan in 2023 to 3,581 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 16.6% [9][11] - The net profit is expected to increase from 150 million yuan in 2023 to 289 million yuan in 2027, with a significant year-on-year growth of 29.4% in 2025 [9][11] - The gross margin is forecasted to stabilize around 60% from 2025 onwards, while the net margin is expected to improve gradually from 7.0% in 2023 to 8.2% in 2027 [9][11] Product and Innovation - The company has launched several AI-enabled software solutions, including smart data suites and industrial software AI suites, showcasing its strong application capabilities in various operational scenarios [7][6] - The recent AI-themed event highlighted the company's commitment to enhancing productivity through data and intelligent technologies, addressing challenges in digital transformation for enterprises [5][6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" trend is driving a super cycle in commodities, particularly benefiting upstream resources and midstream materials, with the true focus being on the midstream sector [2][14] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" phenomenon is a precursor to debt reduction, indicating that future demand-side policies will be crucial following the recent supply-side adjustments [3][15] - The ROIC-WACC metric is identified as a key indicator for measuring "involution," with industries like coking coal and photovoltaic equipment being classified as "true involution" sectors that are poised for growth [4][16] Group 2 - The report recommends a stock portfolio for August 2025, including companies such as Dingjie Zhizhi (computing), Yuandong Biological (pharmaceuticals), and BYD (automotive), among others [6][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand-side policy implementation and potential liquidity pressures from overseas markets [5][13] - The report notes that the strong exchange rate is expected to support continued export strength, which may exceed market expectations [5][13]

Core Viewpoint - Dingjie Smart (300378) is expected to experience stable growth in revenue and profit, despite facing challenges in 2024 due to a downturn in the manufacturing sector. The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of manufacturing demand starting in 2025, supported by its comprehensive product offerings and AI integration [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The company has a robust operational model, with anticipated stable growth in orders and revenue as the industrial economy transitions and upgrades. The introduction of AI products is expected to further enhance its offerings [1]. - Continuous domestic replacement in industrial software is expected to increase the company's market share. Dingjie Smart's customized solutions and strong customer loyalty create high barriers to entry, allowing it to compete effectively against foreign companies like SAP [1]. - The company is actively leveraging AI applications to facilitate the digital transformation of manufacturing enterprises, which is projected to generate additional revenue streams and open new growth avenues [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for Dingjie Smart from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 206 million, 281 million, and 362 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.34%, 36.43%, and 28.70% [2]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 62, 46, and 35 times, respectively. Comparatively, similar companies in the industry have average PE ratios of 64, 52, and 43 times for the same years [2]. - Given the company's deep customer resources and industry expertise, along with its comprehensive AI application strategy, there is potential for sustained improvement in its market position [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report by McKinsey highlights the accelerating transformation of the global smart manufacturing and industrial automation industry, driven by advancements in Industry 4.0 and generative AI technologies, with China, Japan, and Western Europe expected to lead the automation revolution by 2030 [12][15]. Industry Overview - The global industrial automation market is projected to reach approximately $108.3 billion by 2025, with China's market exceeding 250 billion RMB, accounting for over one-third of the global market [2][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policies such as the "14th Five-Year Plan for Intelligent Manufacturing" in promoting digital transformation and intelligent upgrades in China's manufacturing sector [13]. Key Trends and Directions - The report identifies three major technological trends: platformization, agility, and intelligence, along with ten key technological development directions that will drive advancements in industrial automation and smart manufacturing [2][8]. - The trends include the establishment of software-defined intelligent manufacturing platforms, model-driven design approaches, and the integration of artificial intelligence and low-code/no-code development tools [4][6][7]. Market Segmentation - The industrial automation market is segmented into continuous flow manufacturing and discrete manufacturing, with significant growth potential in both areas. Continuous flow manufacturing is expected to see spending reach approximately $76 billion by 2025, while discrete manufacturing is experiencing faster growth rates [16][17]. - The report highlights the increasing importance of industrial IoT software and cloud services, which are projected to grow at a rate of 18% [33]. Challenges and Opportunities - The global manufacturing industry faces unprecedented risks, including trade tensions and economic slowdowns, which necessitate a reevaluation of production and supply chain strategies [14]. - The report suggests that leveraging industrial automation can enhance production efficiency and address these challenges, positioning companies to better navigate the evolving landscape [15]. Technological Innovations - Key technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual PLCs, digital twins, and low-code/no-code development are significantly enhancing the performance of industrial automation and robotics [2][36]. - The integration of multi-source heterogeneous data is crucial for achieving product quality and operational efficiency, enabling a more data-driven approach to manufacturing [47][48]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the global and Chinese industrial automation markets will experience accelerated growth over the next five years, driven by labor market changes and technological breakthroughs [33][34]. - By 2030, it is expected that 8 billion jobs globally could be replaced by machines due to advancements in automation and AI technologies [35].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][11]. Core Insights - The company has over 40 years of experience in the industrial manufacturing sector, evolving into a leading software supplier with a focus on ERP products and smart manufacturing solutions [1][18]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the new industrialization process and national policy guidance, maintaining high-quality growth [2]. - The company has developed a multi-agent collaborative platform in the smart manufacturing field, integrating AI applications to enhance operational efficiency [3][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in industrial software, focusing on digital transformation and innovation in cloud and industrial internet applications [1][18]. - It has a stable shareholding structure with experienced management, enhancing its operational stability [24][26]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 26.57 billion to 36.35 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.03% to 18.23% [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.93 billion to 3.17 billion yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of 23.82% to 29.99% [4][11]. Market Position - The company holds a 14.8% market share in China's manufacturing ERP software market, ranking first among domestic suppliers [2][45]. - It has a strong presence in various sectors, including semiconductor, automotive parts, and equipment manufacturing, with significant market shares in these industries [46][53]. Product and Service Matrix - The company offers a comprehensive product matrix covering four major business areas: R&D design, digital management, production control, and AIoT [40][41]. - The Athena platform integrates advanced technologies such as AI, big data, and IoT to support enterprises in their digital transformation [43][45]. Future Growth Drivers - The integration of AI applications into industrial processes is expected to drive growth, with the company launching a multi-agent protocol to enhance collaboration in manufacturing [3][68]. - The industrial software market is projected to continue growing, driven by the demand for digital transformation in manufacturing [57][65].

4月25日，国内首份《央国企CIO选型指南——ERP产品》在北京举办的"2025中国国际软件发展大会CIO高峰论坛"上正式发布！ 该报告由中国软件行业协会CIO分会、数字产业创新研究中心、锦囊专家联合发布，是国内首份聚焦ERP产品的选型指南，旨在助力央国企在数字化转型 中科学选择ERP产品。报告通过广泛的市场调研与专家咨询，构建了涵盖产品、企业自身素质、服务三大一级指标及14个二级指标的ERP选型指标体系。 基于该体系，报告对全球ERP厂商进行了深入调研，分析其产品特点、市场定位及竞争优势，并对百余款ERP产品进行了全面评估与评分。结合央国企的 实际需求，最终优选出一批兼具高度适用性与竞争力的ERP产品，为央国企提供了精准、可靠的选型参考，助力其数字化转型进程。 | | | | 前言 | 03 | | --- | --- | | 一.研究背景 | 05 | | 1.1 发展力程 | 05 | | 1.2 驱动因素 | 05 | | 二.调研问卷基础数据分析 | 06 | | 2.1 使用 ERP 的央国企调研问卷分析 | 07 | | 2.2 ERP 厂商基础数据分析 | 08 | | 三.央国企 ERP 产 ...