Spending Outlook
Search documents
摩根士丹利:Thematic Alpha x AlphaWise_ 美国消费者动态调查_消费计划恶化,关税成首要顾虑
摩根· 2025-05-09 05:02
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Consumer concern over tariffs has increased significantly, with 43% of consumers reporting being "very concerned" compared to 36% in the previous survey and 28% in January [5][12] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. economy has deteriorated, with a NET sentiment score of -17%, indicating a growing pessimism about economic conditions [7][64] - The outlook for consumer spending has worsened, with only 27% of consumers expecting to spend more next month, down from 16% in previous months, resulting in a NET spending outlook of +5% [22][81] Summary by Sections Consumer Sentiment - Inflation remains the top concern for consumers, with 62% worried about rising prices, followed by political environment concerns at 42% [38][41] - Consumer confidence in household finances is slightly positive with a NET score of +10%, but has decreased from previous months [66] Macro Outlook - The economic outlook is pessimistic, with only 34% of consumers expecting improvement in the next six months, while 51% expect deterioration [64] - Concerns over tariffs are influencing spending behavior, with 42% planning to cut back on spending due to anticipated price increases [5][18] Spending Intentions - The short-term spending outlook has declined, with a NET of +5% for next month, significantly lower than the historical average of +16% [22][81] - Categories with the most negative spending intentions include large home appliances (NET -21%) and food away from home (NET -24%) [89] Economic Uncertainty - Economic uncertainty is expected to pressure consumer spending, with forecasts indicating a potential stall in real consumer spending by late 2025 [31][30] - The report highlights that while consumers are prioritizing bill payments, there is still a strong intention for major purchases, with 60% planning to make significant purchases in the next three months [94][99]