CITI'S TAKE Flash | 12 Jun 2025 04:35:43 ET │ 9 pages China Materials 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #83 – Steel Inventory and Consumption Data In this series of notes, we aim to track and analyze high-frequency on- ground demand trends in China – market expectations of a demand recovery have been largely cautious. We have shifted our near-term pecking order to steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement names. We have opened CWs for Chalco (note) and Tianqi (note) and ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, net sales totaled $280.5 million, a sequential increase of $40 million or 17% [17] - Net income for the quarter was $1.3 million or $0.03 per diluted share, while adjusted net income was $3.2 million or $0.07 per diluted share [18] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $17.7 million, a sequential increase of $9.4 million [18] - Manufacturing costs declined by $12.5 million sequentially due to increased cost absorption and lower maintenance costs [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overall shipments increased by 17% compared to the previous quarter, driven by higher industrial, automotive, and energy shipments [10] - Shipments to industrial customers rose by 33% sequentially, while energy shipments improved by 24% [11][12] - Automotive shipments increased by 9% sequentially, primarily due to seasonality [13] - Aerospace and defense shipments decreased due to production startup challenges but are expected to recover in the second quarter [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The order backlog increased approximately 50% from the same period last year, reflecting growing demand for U.S.-produced steel [7] - Lead times for SBQ bars and seamless mechanical tubing products currently extend to ten weeks [11] - The energy market is seeing increased demand as customers shift from imports to domestic sourcing [35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest approximately $5 million in safety management systems and equipment upgrades in 2025 [8] - Capital allocation strategy prioritizes strategic investments for long-term growth and ongoing share repurchase programs [15] - The company remains focused on executing its business strategy while prioritizing safety and customer service [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism despite macroeconomic uncertainties, citing a strong U.S.-based business model [16] - The company anticipates second-quarter adjusted EBITDA to be higher than in the first quarter, with modest increases in shipments expected [26] - Management is confident in meeting the 2025 revenue goal of approximately $30 million from vacuum arc remelt products [15] Other Important Information - The company made $52.6 million in required pension contributions in Q1 2025, with expectations of reduced future contributions [20] - Cash flow for the first quarter was an outflow of $38.9 million, primarily due to pension contributions [21] - The company repurchased 395,000 shares for $5.6 million in Q1 and had $96 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization as of April [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: How much of the volume boost in Q1 2025 is due to pull forward demand related to tariffs? - Management indicated that very little of the shipment increase was due to tariff hedging, as most orders were placed in Q4 2024, and the tariffs did not take effect until April [34] Question: What is the outlook for the energy market and customer demand? - Management expects continued demand growth in the energy sector as customers seek domestic sourcing, despite some inventory overhang from imports [35] Question: Can you provide details on the aerospace and defense customer manufacturing startup challenges? - Management noted that a new facility faced commissioning difficulties but expects to see orders from this facility later in the year as progress is made [41]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Nucor generated EBITDA of $696 million and earned $0.77 of adjusted EPS in Q1 2025, despite lower results compared to prior quarters [7] - Net earnings were $156 million or $0.67 per share, including pretax charges of $29 million related to facility closures [19] - The company incurred $170 million in pre-operating and startup costs during the quarter [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The steel mill segment generated adjusted pretax earnings of $241 million, increasing approximately 43% from the prior quarter, with a volume increase of 14% [20] - The bar mill group saw shipments rise 21% compared to the prior quarter and 20% year over year [20] - The steel products segment generated adjusted pretax earnings of $37 million, with backlog growth of nearly 25% across all downstream products [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Backlogs rose over 30% in the steel mill segments and nearly 25% in steel products [15] - The company noted steady to improving demand for steel among customers engaged in rebuilding American industry [16] - The structural backlog is at the highest levels in Nucor's history, indicating strong future demand [76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Nucor is focused on long-term growth plans, reinvesting nearly $860 million into the company, with two-thirds allocated to projects commencing operations in the next two years [7] - The company is advancing its "expand beyond" strategy and driving key acquisitions to strengthen and diversify its earnings profile [8] - Nucor aims to maintain a strong investment-grade credit quality and has raised $1 billion in senior notes to pre-fund upcoming debt maturities [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a robust order book and healthy demand across various sectors, including advanced manufacturing and infrastructure projects [16][78] - The company is well-positioned to capture domestic steel demand growth, with expectations for earnings to be meaningfully higher in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 [31] - Management acknowledged macroeconomic uncertainties but emphasized Nucor's strong capabilities and financial strength to navigate these challenges [17] Other Important Information - Nucor's greenhouse gas emission intensity is among the lowest in the global steel industry, and the company is advancing cleaner energy sources [18] - The company has made several acquisitions since 2022 to expand its construction products capabilities, establishing four distinct platforms with higher growth potential [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide clarity on the magnitude of startup costs for 2025? - Management indicated that startup costs for the balance of the year would be similar to previous quarters, around $160 million to $170 million [36] Question: What are the expected utilization rates for the Brandenburg mill by year-end 2025? - Management expressed confidence in achieving EBITDA positive run rates by summer and highlighted significant production achievements [39] Question: Can you provide guidance on the second quarter outlook? - Management refrained from providing specific quantitative guidance but acknowledged strong order entry rates and backlogs [50] Question: How is Nucor mitigating tariff impacts on raw materials? - Management emphasized a diversified raw material supply strategy and noted that the impact of tariffs on raw materials is minimal [54] Question: What is the impact of Section 232 on downstream products? - Management noted that the extension of Section 232 is having a positive impact, with imports dropping below 20% for the first time in years [64] Question: Can you clarify the adjusted EPS compared to guidance? - The beat in adjusted EPS was driven primarily by volume increases in the steel segment, particularly in bar and sheet products [87] Question: What contributed to the gross margin squeeze? - Management identified higher energy costs and increased scrap costs as contributing factors to the margin squeeze [90] Question: Is there any speculation for tariffs included in the $3 billion CapEx? - Management confirmed that the CapEx does not include any speculation for tariffs [94]