Core Viewpoint - March U.S. Treasury note futures are presenting a selling opportunity due to ongoing price weakness and bearish technical indicators [1][2]. Technical Analysis - Prices of March U.S. Treasury note futures are trending down, with a minor bear flag pattern observed on the daily bar chart [2]. - The MACD indicator is in a bearish posture, indicating that the bears hold a near-term technical advantage [2]. - A move below the last week's low of 112.14 would signal a selling opportunity, with a downside price objective of 111.00 or lower [4]. Fundamental Analysis - The recent Federal Reserve FOMC meeting adopted a hawkish stance on U.S. monetary policy, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting that interest rates may not decrease further after a 0.25% cut [3]. - U.S. inflation is described as "sticky" and remains above the Fed's target, contributing to bearish sentiment for U.S. Treasury prices [3].

Core Insights - The earnings season for America's largest banks has started steadily, with gains primarily from trading and deal-making, but not extraordinary results [1][2] JPMorgan Chase - JPMorgan Chase reported a third-quarter net income of $14.4 billion, a 12% increase from the previous year, with trading revenues rising 25% to nearly $9 billion, driven by a 33% increase in equities and a 21% rise in fixed income [3] - Investment banking fees increased by 16%, reflecting stronger deal and underwriting activity [3] - Consumer banking showed stable loan growth and deposits, but there are early signs of fatigue in borrowing demand, particularly for mortgages and autos [4] - CEO Jamie Dimon noted the resilience of the U.S. economy but expressed caution due to geopolitical uncertainties and inflation risks [5] Goldman Sachs - Goldman Sachs experienced a revenue increase of 20% to $15.2 billion and a net income rise of 37% to $4.1 billion [6] - Investment banking fees surged by 42% to $2.7 billion, driven by increased mergers and leveraged finance activity, while trading revenue grew by 17% [6] - The asset and wealth management division also saw double-digit growth, although operating expenses rose by 14% due to higher compensation and legal costs [7] BlackRock - BlackRock reported strong revenue growth attributed to its scale, but profit growth was muted due to the costs associated with acquisitions [8]