China’s economy clocked its deepest slowdown of the year in July, raising expectations for Beijing to roll out more stimulus this year to offset the impact of Donald Trump’s trade war https://t.co/oXiXKV6bu3 ...

Biweekly poll time:How much are you expecting your Elon Stimmy to be? ...

Sri Lanka’s central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged as policymakers gauge the progress of trade negotiations with the US before delivering additional stimulus https://t.co/Fl7GZcPSkt ...

Market Trends - A distortion in China's money market has vanished, suggesting investors anticipate economic reflation due to recent stimulus measures [1] Economic Outlook - The disappearance of the money market distortion is a nascent sign of improved investor confidence in China's economic outlook [1]

Economic Stimulus - China should add up to 1500 billion yuan (approximately $209 billion) in new stimulus to boost consumer spending [1] - Maintain currency flexibility to counter the drag on growth from US tariffs [1]

Monetary Policy & Tariffs - The market initially anticipated a rate cut in July, but it's now less likely due to tariff uncertainty [2] - The Fed is likely to wait until August 1st to assess tariff rates and economic impact before potentially acting in September [3] - The speaker suggests that the "price shock" from tariffs is largely in the past, as businesses have had time to adjust [5][6] Economic Outlook - US demand is solid but sluggish, with GDP around 1% [2] - Fiscal policy is now neutral or stimulative, reducing recession odds [7] - Deficits and the 10-year Treasury yield are expected to remain elevated [8] Business & Market Impact - Companies are expected to adapt to low to mid-teens tariffs if the rates are clear [3] - Corporate earnings are expected to be resilient, supported by stimulus measures [8] - Accelerated depreciation, tax on tips, and tax on overtime should provide a tailwind for businesses [9] - Businesses are cautious due to uncertainty but relatively optimistic about the future [9]

Deficit and Spending - The analysis indicates authorization of $3.8 trillion in deficit increases without offsetting measures, potentially signaling an end to constraints on congressional spending [1] - Repeal of IRA tax cuts significantly impacts energy stocks [2] Consumer Impact - Tariffs are viewed as a tax on US consumers, generating approximately $400 billion for the US Treasury [3] - New stimulus to the US consumer amounts to $166 billion, resulting in a net loss for the consumer when compared to tariff revenue [3][4] Healthcare Sector - Medicaid cuts are expected to have a substantial impact on hospitals [2]