Core Viewpoint - Japan is on the verge of intervening in the currency market for the third time in recent years due to a persistently weak yen, but analysts believe such intervention may be ineffective and could lead to further selloffs [1][4]. Currency Market Situation - The yen has reached a 10-month low, declining alongside bonds since Sanae Takaichi assumed leadership of Japan's ruling party, with proposals for increased government spending [2]. - Japan's cabinet has approved a stimulus package worth 21.3 trillion yen ($135 billion), and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has issued warnings about potential yen intervention if market movements become disorderly [3]. Intervention Expectations - Analysts anticipate that the government may issue verbal warnings before actual intervention occurs, likely around the 158-162 yen per dollar range [3]. - Previous interventions in 2022 and mid-2024 were successful in strengthening the yen, but current conditions may make similar outcomes more challenging due to a lack of significant short positions against the yen [4]. Market Reactions - Initial intervention could lead to increased short positions, resulting in more selling pressure on the yen shortly after the intervention [5]. - The current exchange rate is at 156.7 yen per dollar, approaching a critical level of 160 yen, which could trigger significant market reactions if no intervention occurs [6]. Speculation and Market Sentiment - Traders recall the intervention levels from the previous year, around 157 to 162 yen, and if no action is taken as the yen nears 160, speculation about a weaker intervention stance may lead to aggressive selling of the yen [7].

分组1: Existing Home Sales - Existing home sales for October came in at 4.1 million, slightly above the expected 4.08 million, indicating stability in the market [2] - There was a downward revision in previous months, with September at 4.05 million and August at 4.06 million, suggesting a muted recovery [2][3] - Inventory levels are increasing, which may lead to a decrease in prices and potentially activate more buyers in the market [4] 分组2: Labor Market and Job Reports - The September jobs report showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of around 51,000 [6][7] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% from 4.3%, while average hourly earnings rose by 0.2%, indicating a deceleration in inflation [9] - Revisions to previous months' job numbers were negative, with August revised down to -4,000, raising concerns about the labor market's health [8][10] 分组3: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 saw an increase of 1.8%, with approximately 80% of stocks in the green, indicating positive market sentiment [14] - The VIX index decreased to around 19.6%, reflecting reduced volatility in the market [12] - The market is closely monitoring the 20-day moving average as a key resistance level [17] 分组4: Currency and International Markets - The Japanese yen weakened to its lowest level in 10 months, influenced by expectations of a $135 billion stimulus package aimed at combating inflation [20][21] - Japanese government bond yields have risen to levels not seen since 2008, indicating increased borrowing concerns [19][24] 分组5: Commodity Market - Oil prices increased by about 7%, driven by geopolitical tensions and the denial of peace talks by Russia regarding Ukraine [28][29] - Silver is highlighted as a key indicator for the equity market, with its performance potentially influencing broader market trends [30][31]