I guess if you take away the worst case scenario, that's actually helpful for lower oil prices. A couple of things to consider, though. One, Ali McCrossin RBC said over the weekend that she would caution against that knee jerk reaction that, quote, The worst is behind us.Now, the other factor to consider here, irrespective of the supply issue that may or may not happen with Iran is the demand side. So there's been a lot of stockpiling by China, a lot of stockpiling by other countries within the West as well ...

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices initially spiked following US strikes on Iran but later decreased [1] - US oil production direction is likely flat to down, despite potential incentives from higher oil prices [3] - Easing permitting processes in areas like Alaska could incentivize more drilling [6] - OPEC is adding 400,000 barrels a day, increasing global oil supply [7] Geopolitical Risks & Shipping - The Strait of Hormuz has never been closed, even during the Gulf War [8][9] - Increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz has led to shipping day rates rising from $24,000 to $100,000 per day [10] - Almost all exported Iranian oil is bought by China [11] - Potential disruptions could occur at Bab el Mandeb strait and the Suez Canal, in addition to the Strait of Hormuz [13] Iranian Oil & Sanctions - Iran exports 15 million barrels of oil a day, despite sanctions [15] - Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be economic suicide for Iran, as 90% of its oil is exported from Kharg Island [14]

Geopolitical Assessment - The operation was successful in execution, with aircraft delivering GBU 57 and submarine-launched lambs offshore [1] - A good battle damage assessment is needed, but may be incomplete until inspectors are on the ground [3] - Potential Iranian responses include using Shia militia groups in Iraq, launching missiles against U S forces in the Middle East, targeting American officials globally, or disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz [4][5] - Iran may calibrate its response to satisfy domestic needs without provoking a significant escalation from the US [7] - The effectiveness of Iran's chain of command is uncertain, potentially explaining the delay in response [9][10] Nuclear Concerns - There are concerns about Iran's potential to reignite efforts to achieve nuclear status, especially with 400 kilograms of enriched uranium missing [11] - Iran possesses approximately 900 pounds (转换后约 408 公斤) of 60% enriched uranium, close to the level needed for nuclear weapons, and its location is unknown [11][12] - Even if Iranian infrastructure is destroyed, it may be rebuilt over time, potentially energizing their nuclear ambitions [12][13] Deterrence and Regional Security - Deterrence is based on capability and willingness, with the US demonstrating its willingness to act [14][15] - A clear message is important for deterring disruption of waterways like the Strait of Hormuz [17] - Potential responses to Iranian aggression in the Strait of Hormuz include targeting the Iranian navy, mine layers, swarm boats, and missile batteries [17][18] - The US involvement is contingent on Iran's response, with a preference for negotiation between Iran and Israel, including a return to the nonproliferation regime [20][22]

>> THE U.S. MILITARY CARRIED OUT PERSISTENT STRIKES ON THE THREE KEY NUCLEAR FACILITIES IN THE IRANIAN REGIME. >> WE ARE NOT DRAGGING AMERICA INTO A WAR AND WE ARE LEAVING IT TO THE PRESIDENT AND HIS TEAM. >> THE BOMBING OF NUCLEAR FACILITIES BY THE UNITED STATES MARKS A TURN IN A REGION THAT IS ALREADY REALLY -- REELING.DANI: IT IS 5:00 A. M. IN NEW YORK CITY.I AM DANI BURGER WITH YOUR "BLOOMBERG BRIEF." IRAN VOWS TO EVALUATE AND KEEPS UP ON ISRAEL FOLLOWING THE U.S. ATTACK ON ITS NUCLEAR FACILITIES. THE W ...

If you had asked anybody before this evening how Wall Street would react after the US decided to directly attack Iran, I'm guessing the thought would be more severe than this. I think that was the thought coming in. But remember, we had a taste of this when Israel first struck Iran back late June 12.Here in the United States. And I think the playbook that is going to play out tonight and into Monday could potentially be a repeat of that, a big knee jerk reaction where risk assets get sold off, haven assets ...

LISA: THANK YOU SO MUCH. JOINING US IS STEPHEN SHORCK. HOW LONG DO YOU THINK THAT THEY WILL LAST.IT WILL DEPEND ON FURTHER ESCALATION AND HOW LONG THE HOSTILITIES. WE ARE LOOKING AT A SITUATION OF A WAIT AND SEE. THE MARKET HAS PRICED IN GREATER VOLATILITY.WHAT WE SAW BEFORE LAST THURSDAY WAS A MARKET SWITCHING INTO THE BRENT AND WTI BEGINNING IN 2026 HAD SWITCHED TO A MARKET WHERE PRICES FOR JANUARY WERE CHEAPER THAN FEBRUARY AND SO FORTH. THIS IS A CLASSIC FUNDAMENTAL TELLTALE THAT THE MARKET IS PRICING I ...

[CC may contain inaccuracies] How important is the Strait of Hormuz right now. And even if we don't necessarily see a closure or just disruptions in that region. I mean, massively important, 20% of the world's oil is flowing there and the roughly equivalent amount of the world's gas.What is particularly challenging right now is some of the jamming that's happening on GPS devices and the like, which which is a concern. The Strait of Hormuz is, at the end of the day, the artery through which the world's energ ...

Geopolitical Risk & Oil Supply - Approximately one-fifth (20%) of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making it a critical choke point [2] - Historically, disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have occurred, including attacks on tankers during the Iran-Iraq war [3][4] - Escalating conflict could lead to disruptions in traffic, potentially causing insurance costs for tankers to spike [7] - Iran may disrupt energy supplies to internationalize the cost of the conflict, potentially targeting energy facilities [9] China's Role - About one-third of the oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is now going to China, marking a shift in global oil flows [6] - China's reliance on Iranian oil, especially for teapot refineries, raises questions about Iran's response to the conflict [7] - China is incentivized to de-risk the situation, but its influence over Iran is uncertain [10] Potential for Regional Instability - Iranian-backed militias in Iraq pose a risk to Iraqi oil infrastructure, particularly near Basra, where Iraq produces approximately 44 million barrels a day (44%) [11][12] - Proxies like the Houthis, retaining ballistic missile capabilities, could initiate cross-border attacks [13]

And now oil prices are surging, as we've been talking about on the heels of these strikes by Israel. Joining us now, Will Kennedy. He's Bloomberg senior executive editor for energy and Commodities.You are seeing that Brent crude rise hold to a large degree. Ultimately, we talked a lot about the White House's response. But investors, of course, the world is watching for Iran's response.How might the oil markets respond based on what would have happened over the weekend and into next week. Yeah, that's exactl ...

Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events - Initial reports of no damage to Iranian oil infrastructure led to a price correction after Brent crude prices initially spiked by 13%, settling at a 7% increase [1] - The market is closely monitoring the potential impact on Iran's oil production, export capabilities, storage, and refining capacity [2] - The market is sensitive to the possibility of a larger conflict involving the Strait of Hormuz, despite the difficulties and potential detriment to Iran [3][4] - Potential self-sanctioning by ship owners avoiding the region due to prolonged conflict could reduce oil and gas supply [5] - The market is in a wait-and-see mode, closely observing Iran's response to the Israeli attack and Israel's subsequent actions [6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market is currently considered frothy and oversupplied, providing a buffer against potential supply disruptions [9] - Brent crude prices had risen to $78, after being at $60 at the beginning of May due to concerns about the trade war impacting demand [10] - Weaker oil demand, influenced by trade war concerns and lagging Chinese industrial output, mitigates the immediate impact of potential supply reductions [10][11] - Despite the oversupplied market, the potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, though a remote possibility, is causing price gains [12] Geopolitical Developments - Reports indicate a large-scale Israeli attack involving over 200 Air Force planes targeting 100 Iranian nuclear and missile facilities [7][8] - Iran's response includes a statement emphasizing the necessity of nuclear enrichment [7][8]