Core Insights - John Davi, founder and chief investment officer at Astoria Portfolio Advisors, discussed the firm's 15th annual report featuring ten ETF picks for 2026, emphasizing a constructive macro outlook driven by tax cuts, potential tariff cuts, and Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] Featured Portfolio Ideas - The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (ACWX) is recommended for exposure to international equities, benefiting from a weaker dollar and attractive valuations, particularly in cyclical sectors like industrials and financials [3] - The PIMCO Multisector Bond Active ETF (PYLD), with over $10 billion in assets, is highlighted for its active management approach, outperforming the Aggregate Bond Index by 12% since its launch in July 2023 [4] - The SPDR Bridgewater All Weather ETF (ALLW), which has $700 million in assets, employs strategic asset allocation across four economic quadrants and operates with approximately 40% lower risk than the S&P 500 [5] - The Calamos Auto Callable Income ETF (CAIE), now over $500 million in assets, focuses on defined outcomes in a non-linear risk environment by selling low downside puts to generate yield [6] - The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW) is included as a means to protect purchasing power against inflation, advocating a buy-and-hold strategy rather than tactical trading [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a medium-term bullish outlook on gold, with a neutral short-term stance due to lower liquidity as the year ends [1][3]. Core Insights - The consensus view on long gold positions is at an all-time high, with significant participation from hedge funds and central banks [1][3]. - The structural investment case for gold is supported by persistent fiscal deficits, geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing central bank demand, with projections for gold prices to exceed $5,000/oz by Q4 2026 [1][4]. - The report highlights a strong performance of gold, with a year-to-date increase of 59%, significantly outperforming the ASX200, which rose by 6% [3]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Drivers - Key drivers for gold prices include geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization, widening government deficits, and the Federal Reserve's shift towards rate cuts [3]. - Physical demand for gold remains robust, particularly in Asian markets, with demand peaking in October despite high prices [3]. Market Participation - The breadth of market participants in gold has been unprecedented, with central banks, asset managers, hedge funds, corporates, and retail investors all actively involved [3][4]. - A notable trend is large corporate treasuries allocating portions of their cash holdings to gold, indicating its growing appeal as a strategic asset [3]. Technical Analysis - The $3,990-$4,000 range is identified as a key short-term support level, with a sustained break above $4,250 expected to trigger further price increases [4]. - The next area of consolidation for gold prices is projected to be around $4,400-$4,500 [4]. Equity Recommendations - Among large-cap equities, the report recommends Northern Star Resources Ltd. (NST) and Newmont Corp. (NEM) as overweight (OW) picks, while Evolution Mining Ltd. (EVN) is rated neutral (N) [4]. - For mid-cap equities, Ramelius Resources (RMS), Capricorn Metals (CMM), and Genesis Minerals (GMD) are highlighted as overweight (OW) recommendations [4].

Core Insights - Medtronic (MDT) has returned a total of $52 billion to shareholders over the last decade through dividends and share buybacks, ranking it as the 51st highest in shareholder returns in history [3][4] - The company’s capital returns are significant as they indicate management's confidence in financial health and sustainable cash flow generation [4] - Medtronic's stock has experienced substantial volatility, with notable declines during major market events, including a 40% drop during COVID-19 and a 45% decline due to inflation shocks [8][9] Financial Performance - Medtronic reported a revenue growth of 5.0% for the last twelve months (LTM) and a 3.3% average growth over the last three years [11] - The company has a free cash flow margin of nearly 15.5% and an operating margin of 19.4% for LTM [11] - Medtronic's stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 26.3, indicating a higher valuation compared to the S&P 500, despite lower revenue growth [11] Market Position - The total capital returned to shareholders as a percentage of current market capitalization appears inversely proportional to growth prospects for reinvestments, with companies like Meta and Microsoft showing faster growth but lower capital returns [6][7] - Medtronic's strong fundamentals provide some resilience against market volatility, although it is not immune to significant drops [8]

Group 1: Company Overview - Carnival operates as a leisure travel company, providing cruises to approximately 700 ports globally through multiple well-known cruise line brands [2] Group 2: Investment Thesis - Carnival stock is currently trading nearly 11% lower than its 1-year peak and has a price-to-sales (PS) multiple below the average of the last 3 years, indicating it may be undervalued [1] - The company has demonstrated reasonable fundamentals, including a revenue growth rate of 7.1% for the last twelve months (LTM) and an average of 45.9% over the last three years [8] - Carnival maintains a free cash flow margin of approximately 11.1% and an operating margin of 16.4% LTM, suggesting strong cash generation capabilities [8] - The stock trades at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 14.4, which is considered modest given its encouraging fundamentals [8] Group 3: Market Performance and Risks - Carnival has experienced significant market declines in the past, including a 65% drop during the Dot-Com crash and a nearly 69% decline during the Global Financial Crisis [8] - The stock faced an 84% drop due to the Covid pandemic, highlighting its vulnerability to severe market shocks [10] - Despite robust fundamentals, significant sell-offs are inherent risks, as stocks can decline even in favorable market conditions due to events like earnings announcements and business updates [11]

Group 1 - David Einhorn raises concerns about market sentiment towards AI spending, suggesting a potential shift in investor confidence [1] - Bill Nygren shares insights on value investing strategies relevant to current market trends [1] - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. announces plans to acquire OxyChem, indicating strategic expansion in the chemical sector [1] Group 2 - The Fear & Greed Index indicates a strongly overvalued stock market, prompting discussions on market corrections [5] - The podcast featuring Barry Diller discusses the growth and strategy of IAC, highlighting its market positioning [5] - Research on strategic asset allocation emphasizes the importance of implementing effective investment strategies in current market conditions [7]