It’s an unavoidable reality that anytime you place a wager in the options market, Wall Street pros — not the retail players — enjoy the house advantage. However, this advantage is embedded in the structure of risk modeling, which ironically leads to an opening for everyday traders, so long as you know how to exploit the mathematical loophole. Without getting too deep into the technicalities, market makers price risk based on a monotonic framework. Essentially, for every unit of distance away from the cur ...

With innovations such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing rising to the forefront, there doesn't seem to be much room left for legacy enterprises like HP Inc (NYSE:HPQ) . Indeed, common memes broadcasting the death of personal computers — which are HP's bread and butter — don't flatter the underlying investment case. Amid the negativity, you might be surprised to learn that HPQ stock actually enjoys an upward bias.On the surface, such a statement sounds ridiculous. In the past 52 weeks, HPQ sto ...

Core Viewpoint - MARA Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:MARA) has experienced significant volatility, with a notable rally in the second half of 2025 followed by a sharp decline of approximately 60% from mid-October onward, making it an intriguing candidate for contrarian investment strategies [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Performance - The blockchain market is currently struggling, impacting crypto-adjacent enterprises like MARA, which are facing challenges amid fears of a bubble in artificial intelligence [5]. - In the last 10 weeks, MARA stock has only recorded three weeks of gains, indicating a downward trend [6]. - Historical data shows that during similar patterns, MARA stock tends to exhibit reflexive behavior, potentially leading to a perception of undervaluation among investors [6]. Group 2: Quantitative Analysis - An analysis of MARA's historical performance reveals a quant pattern labeled as 3-7-D (three up weeks, seven down weeks), which could indicate a structural arbitrage opportunity [7]. - Typically, MARA stock has ranged between $9.02 and $9.62 over most 10-week periods since January 2019, with a probability density peak around $9.32, suggesting a negative bias [8]. - The current quantitative signal suggests that forward 10-week returns could range between $8.50 and $10.50, with a peak probability density at approximately $9.65, indicating a potential mispricing compared to Wall Street's expectations [9]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - The expected terminal value of MARA stock is around $9.65, but there is a potential for it to close a 3.63% gap to the $10 price point, which is statistically significant given the stock's volatility [10][15]. - A proposed trading strategy involves a 9/10 bull call spread expiring on February 20, 2026, with a net debit of $50, allowing for speculation on MARA stock rising above the $10 strike price at expiration, potentially yielding a 100% profit [17].

While satellite designer and manufacturer AST SpaceMobile Inc (NASDAQ:ASTS) has been one of the strongest performers this year, it's also fair to point out that the highly kinetic movements of ASTS stock can throw many options traders off. Essentially, ASTS is non-ergodic to the extreme. Colloquially, this means that the actual return may not always match the expected average return.With options trading, non-ergodicity often rears its ugly head because of elements such as enhanced volatility and expiration ...

To truly operate with an edge, you must have some way of discovering structural arbitrage — finding the variance between the outcome the masses are expecting and the outcome that is most likely to materialize. If a favorable variance exists relative to your hypothesis, you engage the opportunity (presuming that the delta is of significant girth). Otherwise, there’s no rational reason to take the risk. So, why am I focusing on Box Inc (BOX)? It just so happens that the security is flashing a quantitative s ...