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京东:Expecting solid revenue and earnings growth-20250411
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2025-04-11 01:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for JD.com with a target price of US$55.00, indicating a potential upside of 54.6% from the current price of US$35.58 [2][11]. Core Insights - JD.com is expected to achieve solid revenue and earnings growth, with total revenue projected at RMB291.9 billion for 1Q25E, reflecting a 12.2% year-over-year increase, driven by a nationwide subsidy program [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit is anticipated to grow by 21% year-over-year, translating to a non-GAAP net profit margin of 3.7% [1]. - JD.com is well-positioned to benefit from the nationwide trade-in and subsidy program, particularly in the electronics and home appliance categories, with less exposure to potential tariff increases compared to industry peers [1]. - The company aims to drive quality and sustainable earnings growth in its core business while enhancing shareholder returns, which are seen as key long-term stock price drivers [1]. - Incremental investments in food delivery and lower-tier city expansion are expected to gradually impact financials, but JD.com will maintain a disciplined approach to business expansion [1]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, JD.com is projected to generate revenue of RMB1,267.79 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 9.4% [7]. - The adjusted net profit for FY25E is estimated at RMB52.20 billion, reflecting a growth of 9% year-over-year [7]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be RMB33.94 for FY25E, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.0 [7]. - JD.com’s revenue from the Electronics and Home Appliance segment is projected to grow by 14% year-over-year in 1Q25E [6]. Share Performance - Over the past month, JD.com’s stock has decreased by 12.7%, while it has increased by 7.5% over the past three months [3].