Group 1: Global Sugar Production and Prices - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.22 (-1.47%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -6.90 (-1.57%) due to higher global sugar production [1] - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through December rose by +0.9% y/y to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT) [1] - India's 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Jan 15 is up +22% y/y to 15.9 MMT, with the total production estimate raised to 31 MMT, up +18.8% y/y [2] Group 2: Export Dynamics and Domestic Supply - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3] - The reduction in sugar used for ethanol production in India from 5 MMT to 3.4 MMT may enable an increase in sugar exports [2] Group 3: Global Sugar Surplus Outlook - Covrig Analytics raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [4] - The projected global sugar surplus for 2026/27 is expected to decrease to 1.4 MMT as weak prices discourage production [4] Group 4: Brazil's Sugar Production Forecast - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, contributing to a bearish price outlook [5] - An excessively long position in London ICE white sugar futures could exacerbate any price decline, with funds boosting their net long positions to a record 48,203 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing a downward trend due to increased production forecasts in major producing countries like India and Brazil, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [2][5][7]. Group 1: Sugar Production in India - India's sugar production for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise to 31 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 18.8% year-on-year, as reported by the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) [5]. - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd. reported that India's sugar output from October 1 to January 15 is expected to reach 15.9 MMT, up 21% year-on-year [2]. - The Indian government may allow additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota of 1.5 MMT for the 2025-26 season [6]. Group 2: Sugar Production in Brazil - Brazil's sugar production for the 2025-26 season is estimated to be 45 MMT, an increase from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT, according to Conab [7]. - Unica reported that Brazil's cumulative sugar output through mid-December rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 50.91% in 2025/26 from 48.19% in 2024/25 [3]. Group 3: Global Sugar Surplus Outlook - Covrig Analytics has raised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [4]. - The projected global sugar surplus for 2026/27 is expected to decrease to 1.4 MMT as lower prices may discourage production [4].

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is down -0.07 (-0.48%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is down -1.40 (-0.33%). Sugar prices extended this week's sell-off today, with NY sugar falling to a 1-month low and London sugar dropping to a 2-month low.  Strength in India's sugar production is undercutting prices after the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd., a sugar producers group in India, reported today that the country's 2025/26 sugar output climbed to 15.9 MMT from Oct 1-J ...

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing volatility due to varying production forecasts and export policies from major producing countries like Brazil and India, leading to both bullish and bearish market sentiments. Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 (SBH26) decreased by -0.11 (-0.72%) while March London ICE white sugar 5 (SWH26) increased by +3.30 (+0.76) [1] - Sugar prices faced long liquidation pressure after an earlier rally, influenced by forecasts of reduced sugar production in Brazil for the 2026/27 season [2] Group 2: Production Forecasts - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026/27 from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, with production from October 1 to December 15 showing a +28% year-on-year increase to 7.83 MMT [4] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, while Unica reported a +1.1% year-on-year increase in cumulative sugar output to 39.904 MMT [5] Group 3: Export Policies - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3] - The Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has adjusted its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production down to 3.4 MMT, potentially increasing sugar exports [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, following a deficit in the previous year [6] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from earlier estimates [6]

Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure due to a decline in crude oil prices, with WTI crude reaching a 4.75-year low, which may lead sugar mills to increase sugar production over ethanol, thereby boosting sugar supplies [1] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a significant increase in Indian sugar production, with output from October 1 to December 15 rising by 28% year-on-year to 7.8 million metric tons (MMT) [2] Brazil Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production outlook is also bearish, with Conab raising its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, and Unica reporting a 1.1% year-on-year increase in cumulative sugar output to 39.904 MMT [3] - The proportion of cane crushed for sugar in Brazil increased to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [3] Global Sugar Surplus Forecast - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, reversing a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - ISO projects a 3.2% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT for 2025-26, while Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up from 7.5 MMT [4] Indian Sugar Production and Exports - The ISMA has raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, while reducing the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [5] - India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projects a 19% year-on-year increase in sugar production to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in production to a five-year low of 26.1 MMT in 2024/25 [6]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are declining due to increased production in India and Brazil, alongside falling crude oil prices, which may lead to a shift in production focus from ethanol to sugar [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Indian Sugar Production - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 15 increased by 28% year-on-year to 7.8 million metric tons (MMT) [1] - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [5] - ISMA reduced its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a previous forecast of 5 MMT, potentially allowing for increased sugar exports [5] Group 2: Brazilian Sugar Production - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT [3] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of November rose by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons (MT) [3] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-November increased by 2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 MMT [3] Group 3: Global Sugar Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - ISO predicts a 3.2% year-on-year rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [4] - Sugar trader Czarnikow increased its global 2025/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up by 1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [4]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are declining due to increased sugar production in India and falling crude oil prices [1][2] - Brazil's sugar output forecast has been raised, contributing to bearish market sentiment [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a significant sugar surplus for 2025-26, driven by production increases in multiple countries [4] Group 1: Indian Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a 28% year-on-year increase in Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 15, totaling 7.8 million metric tons (MMT) [1] - ISMA has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, while reducing the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production [5] Group 2: Brazilian Sugar Production - Conab has increased its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, up from 44.5 MMT [3] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of November rose by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons (MT) [3] - Cumulative sugar output through mid-November for the 2025-26 season increased by 2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 MMT [3] Group 3: Global Sugar Market Outlook - The ISO forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, reversing a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - The global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [4] - Czarnikow has raised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, an increase of 1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [4]

Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices have declined recently, with March NY world sugar 11 closing down 0.06 (-0.40%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 down 1.90 (-0.45%) on Thursday [1] - The drop in sugar prices is attributed to a significant decrease in crude oil prices, which fell to a 7-week low, potentially leading sugar mills to increase sugar production over ethanol [1] Production Increases - Indian sugar production surged by 43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) from October to November, with 428 sugar mills actively crushing cane, up from 376 the previous year [2] - Brazil's sugar production outlook is also positive, with Conab raising its 2025/26 estimate to 45 MMT, an increase from 44.5 MMT, and a reported 8.7% year-on-year rise in sugar output in the first half of November [3] Global Supply Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, reversing a previous deficit of 2.916 million metric tons in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [4] Market Impact - The outlook for increased global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5] - Czarnikow has revised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, an increase of 1.2 MMT from the previous estimate of 7.5 MMT [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined due to increased production in major producing countries, particularly India and Brazil, leading to a bearish outlook for the market [2][3][4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.01 (-0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -0.80 (-0.19%) [1] - Sugar prices have retreated to 3-week lows, influenced by a surge in production in India and Brazil [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, reversing a previous deficit [4] Group 2: Production Insights - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million MT, with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 million MT, with a reported increase of +8.7% year-on-year in the first half of November [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region through mid-November rose by +2.1% year-on-year to 39.179 million MT [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The robust global sugar supply outlook has pressured sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 million MT, reflecting a significant rise from previous estimates [5]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices have experienced fluctuations due to varying production levels in major producing countries, with recent data indicating a bearish outlook for future prices driven by increased output in India and Brazil [2][3][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - On March 1, NY world sugar 11 closed up by 0.24 (+1.64%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up by 7.30 (+1.74%) due to dollar weakness prompting short-covering in sugar futures [1]. - Sugar prices have retreated to three-week lows recently, primarily due to increased production in India and Brazil [2]. Group 2: Production Insights - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported a significant increase in Indian sugar production, with a 43% year-on-year rise to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT) for the period of October-November [2]. - Brazil's Conab raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, reflecting a positive outlook for Brazilian sugar output [3]. - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 8.7% year-on-year to 983 thousand metric tons (MT) in the first half of November, contributing to the overall increase in sugar production [3]. Group 3: Global Supply and Surplus Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4]. - A robust global sugar supply has negatively impacted sugar prices since early October, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low [5]. - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, indicating a growing concern over sugar supply outpacing demand [5]. Group 4: India’s Production and Export Potential - The ISMA has raised its 2025/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which may enhance India's export capabilities [6]. - The reduction in the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India from 5 MMT to 3.4 MMT may further support increased sugar exports [6].