March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.16 (+1.12%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is up +4.20 (+1.01%). Sugar prices are moving higher today after a three-week slide pushed prices into oversold territory, sparking technical short covering in sugar futures. More News from Barchart Sugar prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, and on Thursday, NY sugar posted a 5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar posted a 4.75-year low, mainly due to higher sugar output in Brazi ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is down -0.13 (-0.90%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is down -4.60 (-1.10%). Sugar prices have extended their three-week-long slide today, with NY sugar posting a 5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar posting a 4.75-year low. More News from Barchart Higher sugar output in Brazil is undercutting prices today after Unica reported that Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October rose by +1.3% y/y to 2.484 MT.  Also, the perc ...

Sugar Market Overview - Sugar prices are declining, with NY sugar reaching a 2.5-week low and London ICE white sugar also falling [2][1] - The decline in sugar prices is influenced by a drop in crude oil prices and a weaker Brazilian Real, which encourages Brazilian sugar exports [2][4] Supply Dynamics - Brazil's sugar output has increased, with a reported 15.7% year-on-year rise in the first half of September, leading to higher sugar production [4][5] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil has also risen, indicating a shift towards sugar production over ethanol [4] - A projected global sugar surplus of 4.1 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season adds to the bearish sentiment in the market [3] India’s Production Outlook - India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly, with a projected 19% year-on-year increase to 34.9 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season due to favorable monsoon conditions [5] - The cumulative monsoon rainfall in India has been reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, contributing to expectations of a bumper sugar crop [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing downward pressure, with NY sugar reaching a one-week low and London sugar hitting a four-year low due to a projected global sugar surplus of 4.1 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2025/26 season [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Over the past seven months, sugar prices have declined, with NY sugar hitting a 4.5-year low last month, attributed to increased sugar output in Brazil [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons (MT), while the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increased to 53.49% from 47.74% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South for the 2025-26 season through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [2] Group 2: Regional Production Outlook - India's sugar production is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline of 17.5% year-on-year to a five-year low of 26.2 MMT in 2024/25 [3] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm as of September 30, which is 8% above normal and the strongest in five years, potentially leading to a bumper sugar crop [3] - India's sugar mills may export as much as 4 MMT of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT, as the country may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production [4] Group 3: Other Major Producers - Thailand's sugar production is projected to increase by 5% year-on-year to 10.5 MMT for the 2025/26 season, following a 14% year-on-year rise to 10.00 MMT in 2024/25 [5] - Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar, contributing to bearish market sentiment [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced a slight increase on Friday after a week of significant losses, with NY sugar closing up by 0.52% and London sugar by 0.24% [1] - Brazil's sugar production is on the rise, contributing to increased supply and downward pressure on prices, with a reported 18% year-on-year increase in sugar output for the second half of August [2][4] - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, although the projected deficit is improving compared to the previous year [6] Price Movements - NY world sugar 11 closed at +0.08 (+0.52%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed at +1.10 (+0.24%) [1] - Sugar prices have been in a downtrend over the past six months due to expectations of higher production in Brazil [4] Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of August rose to 3.872 million tons, an 18% increase year-on-year, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar [2] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons [2] Market Dynamics - India's potential diversion of 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26 may lead to increased exports, with sugar mills expected to export up to 4 million tons, exceeding earlier estimates [3] - An excessively short position by funds in NY sugar futures could lead to gains during any short-covering rally, with net-short positions increasing significantly [5] Global Outlook - The International Sugar Organization projects a global sugar production increase of 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, while global consumption is expected to rise by 0.3% to 180.8 million tons [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing upward movement due to a rally in WTI crude oil, which has led to short covering in sugar futures [1] - Brazil's sugar production outlook is mixed, with a reported increase in output for the first half of August but a cumulative decrease for the 2025-26 season [2][5] - The International Sugar Organization forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, although production is expected to rise [4] Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 is up by +1.34%, while October London ICE white sugar 5 is up by +0.65% [1] - A +1% increase in WTI crude oil prices is contributing to the rise in sugar prices, as higher crude prices may lead to reduced sugar supplies due to increased ethanol production [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of August rose by +16% year-on-year to 3,615 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 55.00% [2] - However, cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season is down -4.7% year-on-year to 22.886 million tons [2] - Conab has reduced its Brazil 2025/26 production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons, citing lower sugarcane yields due to adverse weather conditions [5] Group 3: Global Sugar Supply and Demand - The International Sugar Organization projects a global sugar deficit of -231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, improving from a -4.88 million ton shortfall in 2024/25 [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons, while consumption is projected to increase by +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 million tons [4] - Czarnikow has projected a 7.5 million ton global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in eight years [6]