Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with New York sugar showing modest gains while London sugar has fallen to a 2.5-month low due to various factors including currency fluctuations and global production levels [1][2]. Group 1: Sugar Production and Export Trends - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season has increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.222 million metric tons (MMT), with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [2]. - India's sugar output for the 2025-26 season has surged by 22% year-on-year to 15.9 MMT, prompting the Indian Sugar Mill Association to raise its production estimate to 31 MMT, an increase of 18.8% year-on-year [3]. - The Indian government is considering allowing additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota of 1.5 MMT set for the 2025-26 season [4]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Price Pressure - The global sugar surplus is projected to increase, with Covrig Analytics raising its estimate for the 2025-26 surplus to 4.7 MMT, which is expected to exert downward pressure on prices [5]. - Brazil's sugar production forecast has been raised to a record 45 MMT for the 2025-26 season, contributing to a bearish outlook for sugar prices [6].

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.17 (+1.15%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +1.50 (+0.35%) on Wednesday, recovering from 1-week lows due to year-end fund short covering [1] - Sugar prices initially fell on Wednesday as the dollar index rose to a 1-week high, impacting most commodity prices including sugar [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports anticipated to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [5] - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November increased by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Potential - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while cutting the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT [3] - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 31 jumped 24% year-on-year to 11.83 MMT [3] - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced for sugar exports in the 2022/23 season [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing mixed trends, with New York sugar reaching a 2.25-month high while London sugar prices are declining, influenced by production forecasts from Brazil and India [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decrease by 3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to fall by 11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [1] - Conab has raised Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bullish outlook for production [4] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT through November 2025/26 [4] Group 2: India's Sugar Production - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has increased its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, reflecting an 18.8% year-on-year increase [3] - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 15, 2025-26 surged by 28% year-on-year to 7.83 MMT, contributing to a potential increase in exports [3] - India's food ministry has allowed mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season to alleviate domestic supply issues [2] Group 3: Global Sugar Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26, reversing a deficit of 2.916 million metric tons in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [5] - Global sugar production is projected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million metric tons in 2025-26 [5] - Sugar trader Czarnikow has revised its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, an increase of 1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [5]