March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed up +0.37 (+2.59%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed up +12.40 (+3.06%). Sugar prices settled sharply higher on Tuesday as a weaker dollar (DXY00) sparked short covering in sugar futures. More News from Barchart On Monday, NY sugar fell to a 2.5-month low, and London sugar dropped to a 5-year low, as the outlook for global sugar surpluses and higher global production has hammered prices.  Last Thursday, Green Pool Commodity Specialists ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed up +0.04 (+0.27%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -1.00 (-0.24%). Sugar prices settled mixed on Tuesday, with London sugar falling to a 2.5-month low.   NY sugar recovered from early losses and posted modest gains as some short covering emerged after the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) rallied to a 20-month high.  The stronger real discourages export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Higher global sugar prod ...

March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed down -0.24 (-1.60%).  March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -5.30 (-1.24%). Sugar prices retreated on Tuesday amid ramped-up production in India.  On Monday, the India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) reported that India's 2025-26 sugar output from Oct 1-Jan 15 is up +22% y/y to 15.9 MMT. More News from Barchart Higher sugar production in Brazil is also bearish for prices after Unica reported last Tuesday that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 C ...

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.02 (-0.13%) while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +2.00 (+0.47%) indicating mixed sugar prices today [1] Production and Supply - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through mid-December increased by +0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 million metric tons (MMT) with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.91% in 2025/26 from 48.19% in 2024/25 [1] - Covrig Analytics raised its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT in October, but projected a decrease in the 2026/27 global sugar surplus to 1.4 MMT due to weak prices discouraging production [2] - Consulting firm Safras & Mercado forecasts Brazil's sugar production in 2026/27 to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025/26, with exports expected to fall by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [4] - Indian sugar production for 2025-26 surged 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, with the Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raising its production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% year-on-year [5] Export Dynamics - India's food secretary indicated that the government may allow additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system for sugar exports introduced in 2022/23 [6] - In November, India's food ministry announced it would permit mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [6] Market Influences - Expectations of index-related buying of sugar futures for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes are supportive for prices, with Citigroup projecting inflows of $1.2 billion in sugar futures contracts this week [3]

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.22 (+1.48%), reaching a 2-week high, while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +4.30 (+1.01%), achieving a 1-week high [1] - The recent rally in sugar prices is attributed to the strengthening of the Brazilian real, which discourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers [1] Production Increases - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, with a reported +8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3] Sugar Surplus Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [4] India’s Production Impact - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while also reducing the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown recovery after early losses, supported by pre-weekend short covering and news from India's food ministry regarding ethanol pricing, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [1][3] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +12 (+0.82%), while March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +4.10 (+0.98%) [1] - Sugar prices have been consolidating below 3.5-week highs reached on Wednesday, indicating a period of stabilization after recent fluctuations [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - India's food ministry announced a reduction in sugar export quotas for the 2025/26 season to 1.5 million metric tons (MMT), down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, which is a response to reduced domestic supplies due to late rains [3] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, indicating a robust output that is bearish for prices [6] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The Brazilian real's weakness has limited sugar price increases, as it encourages export sales from Brazilian producers [2] - The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil has contributed to bearish sentiment in the market, with recent reports indicating significant increases in sugar production and crushing rates [5][6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices remained stable with March NY world sugar 11 closing unchanged and March London ICE white sugar 5 increasing by 0.10 (+0.02%) [1] - Recent price movements were influenced by India's food ministry considering raising ethanol prices, which may lead to reduced sugar supplies as mills shift focus to ethanol production [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] Market Dynamics - Sugar prices have been supported by India's decision to allow mills to export 1.5 million MT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, lower than earlier estimates of 2 million MT [3] - The outlook for global sugar supplies has negatively impacted prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar hitting a 5-year low due to higher output in Brazil and expectations of a global surplus [5] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 million MT, indicating a bearish trend for prices [6] Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output increased by 16.4% year-on-year in the second half of October, with a higher percentage of sugarcane being crushed for sugar compared to the previous year [6] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South through October rose by 1.6% year-on-year to 38.085 million MT, contributing to the overall increase in global sugar production [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are stabilizing after recent gains, with March NY world sugar 11 down by 0.01 (-0.07%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 remaining unchanged [1] - Positive developments in India regarding ethanol pricing are influencing sugar supply dynamics, as mills may shift focus from sugar production to ethanol [2] - India's food ministry has allowed mills to export 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of sugar for the 2025/26 season, a reduction from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, due to a quota system introduced after production issues [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, contrasting with a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by 3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26, contributing to bearish price trends [4] - Brazil's sugar production outlook is particularly bearish, with Conab raising its estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, and recent data showing a 16.4% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the second half of October [6] Price Trends - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies has negatively impacted sugar prices, with London sugar reaching a 4.75-year low and NY sugar prices hitting a 5-year low [5] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, indicating a growing supply situation [5] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar in Brazil has also increased, further contributing to the bearish price environment [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have declined from recent highs due to a drop in crude oil prices, leading to increased sugar production as mills shift focus from ethanol to sugar [2][4][6] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has revised its forecast to indicate a sugar surplus in 2025-26, driven by increased production in key countries [4][6] - India's food ministry's decision to limit sugar exports for the 2025/26 season provides some support to sugar prices despite the overall bearish outlook [5] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.04 (-0.27%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -0.30 (-0.07%) [1] - Sugar prices fell back from 3.5-week highs after crude oil prices tumbled more than -2%, prompting long liquidation in sugar futures [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The ISO forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million MT for 2025-26, following a deficit of 2.916 million MT in 2024-25, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan [4] - Global sugar production is expected to rise by +3.2% year-on-year to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26 [4] Group 3: Export Regulations - India's food ministry will allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season, down from earlier estimates of 2 MMT, following a quota system introduced in 2022/23 [5]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have recently settled higher after a three-week decline, with NY world sugar 11 closing up by 1.05% and December London ICE white sugar 5 up by 0.41% [1] - The recent price pressure was attributed to a five-year low in NY sugar futures and a 4.75-year low in London sugar, primarily due to increased sugar output in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 48.24% from 47.33% the previous year [3] - Cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through mid-October rose by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 million tons [3] - Datagro projected Brazil's sugar production for the 2026/27 season to reach a record 44 million tons, reflecting a 3.9% year-on-year increase [2] Group 3: India's Sugar Outlook - India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly, with a projected 19% year-on-year increase to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a 17.5% decline to a five-year low of 26.2 million tons in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for a bumper sugar crop [4] Group 4: Export Dynamics - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar in 2025/26, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons, as the country faces a surplus despite plans to divert sugar for ethanol production [5] - Sucden's assertion that only 4 million tons of sugar may be diverted for ethanol production suggests that the surplus situation in India will persist [5]